CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Tolerate Xi, No Other Option

Western powers may shudder at third term for Chinese President, India may be uneasy with the pit-bull, but then does world have a say? K.A.Badarinath “Over throw the dictator” posters and banners that donned Sitong Bridge overpass in Beijing. Similarly thousands of Chinese people gathered at one of the suburban town 45-kilometres away on eastern edge of Beijing protesting the repressive President Xi Jingping’s zero-covid 19 norms in three years. These two instances are symptomatic of unease and restlessness within Chinese population against Oligarchs and multi-billionaires controlled Communist Party of China’s government even as the prima donna leader President Xi gets ready for third term coronation. Rarest of the rare protests that ordinary working class people staged on Thursday demanding their right to travel to work places in Beijing is tip of the iceberg. Whatever may be the line pursued by official communist party organ, People’s Daily, information trickling across social media point to a section of Chinese people seeking change in the leadership. South China Morning Post’s story talks of the protests that have sent larger message to President Xi Jingping and the Communist Party of China’s five years once national congress that begins its week-long session on Sunday. “Say no to Covid test, yes to food. No to lockdown, yes to freedom. No to lies, yes to dignity. No to cultural revolution, yes to reform. No to the great leader, yes to vote. Don’t be a slave, be a citizen,” read banners during Thursday protests as per a dispatch of CNN. These liners sum up the ordinary folks’ aspirations in China. “Go on strike, remove the dictator and national traitor Xi Jinping” pointed to the intent behind protest very succinctly. Not that these protests, public outrage or demand for democratic governance structures would mean anything to the autocratic rule led by President Xi Jingping. Anointing Xi to the ‘core’ by central committee of CPC only reflects the sycophants that have filled in the high chair. After having secured the ‘iconic status’, there’s nothing that may come in his way from continuing his lacklustre regime for another five years. Upper age limit of 68-years may not be applicable to President Xi. Party’s rule book that limits the Presidency to two terms also may not be a limiting factor. If reports from outlets like BBC were to be believed, President Xi will continue as ‘supreme leader’ for his life time. Apart from revamping the seven member polit-bureau standing committee with his acolytes, President Xi may even be elevated to become chairman with executive powers, a post that was abolished at the twelfth national congress in 1982. Mao Zedong who shaped Communist Party of China in the formative years was the most popular and the only chairman of the leftist formation China had in aftermath of the long march. If President Xi were to get designated as the Chairman now or after five years, he’s bound to ensure that one of his stooges would be appointed as General Secretary with limited or no executive powers. The 25-member strong polit-bureau of the party to be announced next week end would have faces that are ‘very loyal’ to President Xi Jingping. Along with third term for President Xi and reorganizing party and government’s top deck, there’s every possibility that Chinese military, political and party doctrine would get rewritten. Western block led by US, Japan, Australia and some of their European allies are bound to mount fresh challenge to Chinese Indo-Pacific strategy apart from isolating China further on economic, trade and investments matrix. His signature projects like Belt and Roads Initiative that pushed lot many countries into the Chinese debt trap may get a leg up. China’s development and security initiatives would get redefined and fortified notwithstanding its own block making and criticism on dragon’s debt stranglehold. China under President Xi’s third term would try and re-assert on security front, reimagine and re-energise its economy that took a huge hit last three years owing to Covid 19 pandemic. In a bid to bring the disenchanted communist cadres together and give a fillip to the world’s largest military, President Xi may lean heavily on the ‘nationalist sentiment and emotional China centric appeal’ that’s very anti-thesis of Communist party’s ideological stand. Russia – Ukraine conflict that has had led to a huge energy crisis in entire Europe and China siding with President Putin serves as the perfect backdrop to CPC rewriting its doctrine on ‘development and security’. For India, the fallout of possibly a more stringent CPC line, will be huge given that Beijing – New Delhi ties got redefined especially after East Ladakh adventurism attempted by President Xi and his cronies in last two years.  On economic front, there could be significant challenges as India readies to replace China across supply chains network including Defence equipment and services. As India warms up to assume chairmanship of G-20 and China continues to hold reins of BRICS till June next year,  a huge change in bilateral and multi-lateral engagements in the region and beyond would shape the post-Covid 19 world. Also, with India being chair of UNSC as an elected member for two years, there’s likelihood of some churn in global organizations. As a write up in South China Morning Post put it, western powers led by US may not like a third term for President Xi Jingping, but do they have an option. They have to live with it and the world will have to tolerate him for perhaps his lifetime. India will have to move its pawns with care and caution keeping the independent and balanced security and foreign policy stand intact. (Author is director and chief executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, New Delhi)

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Winter Olympics: China heading for isolation

Communist Party of China and President Xi’s track record of human rights violations and unabated expansionism have riled the world Amritpal Kaur / New Delhi Winter Olympics and Paralympics this year being held in China beginning next week were to be showcased as President Xi Jingping’s acumen and dexterity with which he engaged the world. If reports were anything to go by, it’s not working for President Xi Jingping and his Communist Party of China that’s burning midnight oil to prevent the country’s total isolation in the international community. First came the political and diplomatic boycott of Chinese winter Olympics by the world powers to send out a strong message against well documented human rights violations of Uighur muslim minorities. Though most countries may still send in their sporting contingents, their officials will skip to protest against abuse and genocide unleashed against Uighurs. Going back to its origin in 1896, Olympics have been touted as the bridge to mitigate differences among countries and forging a bond of friendship. On the contrary, Winter Olympics 2022 being held at Beijing have walked into a grave shadow of all round acrimony due to China’s arbitrary actions with a number of Southeast Asian neighbours’ boycotting the games. Looming threat of Omicron variant of COVID-19 and massive internet crackdown by the powerful regulator in China has also not gone well with sporting nations. Since the last decade, Chinese growth story has translated into its assertiveness and obsession for blanket security theology. Its resurgence has made China more vocal treading on the verge of covert violence. One dimension of such an upturn has been China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours like USSR and Myanmar but with varying outcomes that range between amicable solution and outright arm twisting. However, amicable solutions have been scarce and far in between.  In fact, the last amicable resolution of border dispute that China achieved was in 2011 with Tajikistan. On the contrary, the past decade shows a marked change in the Chinese modus operandi in dealing with such disputes. Since 2009 Beijing has been claiming unilaterally South China Sea its territorial waters by pushing forward Nine-dash Line which demarcates the whole of the water body as its territory. South China Sea has been a central to territorial dispute between China and its South East Asian neighbours. And, this got accentuated beginning 2013 when China started developing Spratley Island and Paracel Island region. The Chinese state has been claiming ownership of most uninhabited islands in South China Sea Zone at a fast pace. These Islands include Cuarton Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Johnson South Reef, Mischief Reef, Subi Reef. Though Vietnam had been reclaiming some islands, what set the alarm bells ringing was the urgency with which Chinese started to develop these shoals. During 2014-16, China reclaimed more islands and territories than all other nations combined in the region’s history. Graver aspect of this Chinese belligerence is militarizing these islands. South China Sea is a narrow body which is also strategic as an important marine route that accounts for substantial world trade at over $ 3 trillion annually. Chinese attempt to capture scattered islands and fortifying them as its military zones has unnerved several of its friends and foes alike. Discreet reclamation of territories led to coining of term, ‘Salami Slicing’, that denotes Chinese attempt to expand its territory, one shoal at a time. Chinese expansionism has been in full display in its tussle with its India. Though settlement of Himalayan border issue has been an elusive phenomenon, over a period India and China had developed a mechanism to keep bilateral relations cordial while taking a piecemeal approach to disputed territory. Passage of Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (1993) during the Narasimha Rao era is a case in point. Subsequently, technical agreements to manage the border issues were adopted after tough negotiations in 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2013. However, recent skirmishes in the high Himalayas including Galwan crisis, Pangong Tso tussle, Depsang Plain offensive in 2020 is a worrying signal. According to experts, China is engaged in salami slicing of Himalayan border by taking one post at a time. It has also been speculated that China is keeping the Himalayan fault lines simmering to hem India and gain simultaneous advantage in the Indian Ocean as an emerging blue water navy. This expansionist posture, mastering the seas around and major sea lanes of communication, it’s a crucial move in the strategic chess that China continues to play. Chinese arm twisting and expansionism is visible in the recently enacted Land Border Act (2021). On the face of it, the act charts the course that China is to adopt in the border determining process. It states that territorial sovereignty is inviolable and China would ‘resolutely defend territorial sovereignty and land border security.’ But, the trouble with this assertion is that only India and Bhutan do not have a settled border with China. Further, China’s ‘official map’ unilaterally claims entire Arunachal Pradesh, Barahoti plains of Uttarakhand and territory till 1959 claim line in the Ladakh region as its own land mass. The act of China declaring complete ownership of rivers running through its territory setting aside claims of lower riparian states had led to more disputes with neighbours. As far as India is concerned, its recently adopted Land Border Act has no validity since it has no veracity or solid ground. China seems to be waging a psychological offensive against its neighbors, through posturing, unilaterally declaration of unacceptable claims on disputed territories as well as constantly shifting goal posts.  Since the Sixth Plenary Session of Communist Party of China in November 2021, it has been obvious that President Xi would continue into his third term as Chinese President. He has already put himself in the list of great leaders of China next only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping with his thought enshrined in the Chinese Constitution. Winter Olympics for him could have been a virtual crowing, a cherry on top of

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