Afghanistan swings between Stability, Repression and Uncertainty; women face brunt of poverty, limited or no access to food & education.
Dr Shambhavi Thite
The world witnessed the fall of the Afghan republic on 15 August 2021, with a shocking degree of rapidity. With Taliban fighters marching into Kabul, President Ghani fleeing from his post, and security forces disintegrating along the way, images of scenes from Kabul airport came to symbolize the end of a 20-year Western intervention program. The day was one of victory for the Taliban, marking the success of their long campaign of insurgency, but for millions of Afghans, it was merely the start of a new and uncertain chapter of their lives.
Five years on, the state of affairs in Afghanistan is one of great complexity and contradiction. In contrast to the years of widespread conflict that had marked the landscape, much of the fighting has ceased, and Taliban rule has brought them greater territorial control than any other government in recent decades. But far from bringing about peace, freedom and prosperity for Afghans, the cessation of open conflict has resulted in Afghanistan becoming one of the world’s worst human rights disasters, especially for women and girls1, alongside poverty and food insecurity. The Taliban run the country, but they are politically isolated. The most important thing is that there is now an entire generation of Afghan girls who have been growing up under opportunities that their mothers and sisters had dreamt of expanding forever.
End of One War
Prior to August 2021, Afghanistan had been through almost half a century of violence. The nation had gone through the Soviet occupation, civil war, the first reign of the Taliban, the US-led intervention following the 11 September 2001 attacks, followed by an extended period of insurgency involving the Taliban, the Afghan government and foreign troops. The fall of the regime signalled an end to the majority of these hostilities on a national scale. Frontlines have vanished and the fighting between the Taliban and the former Afghan troops has ended. This was clearly different from what the population had gotten used to for years.
However, the lack of war on a national scale does not necessarily imply the coming of peace in its full meaning. Threats of security have persisted, such as attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province. Additionally, the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been strained due to claims of militants’ activities across the border and the presence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters.2 Essentially, the fear itself has become different. Previously, many Afghans were afraid of bombs, assassinations, and military conflicts by Taliban. Now, under the regime of Taliban, women, journalists, activists, ex-officials and critics of politics have been facing another kind of insecurity, which can be described as restriction, surveillance and narrowing down of the dissident space. Therefore, while Taliban may say that peace was achieved due to the decrease of large-scale internal wars, their claim to bring peace is undermined by the political and social repressions that have occurred under their rule.
Women and Girls with no education
Few examples can demonstrate the effects of the return of the Taliban as well as the status of women and girls.
At the time when the Taliban occupied Kabul in 2021, its representatives tried to assure the international community about their changed attitude towards the issue compared to the one in the 1990s.
However, their assurances gradually turned into numerous restrictions on the education, work, and social life of women. Girls could not return to secondary schools, while in December 2022, the ban was put on women going to university.
Now, Afghanistan is the only country in the world which does not provide secondary and higher education to girls and women. By August 2026, it was calculated by UNESCO that nearly 2.4 million Afghan girls were deprived of secondary education due to the Taliban.3
This policy is of utmost significance and goes far beyond its applicability to the school room. Education is important for all spheres of the life of the country. Girls who do not receive any education have no chances for getting a well-paid job. Afghanistan may suffer from the lack of trained female teachers, doctors, specialists in other spheres. The UNICEF agency has warned that such discrimination of females may cause long-term economic problems for the country and bring it serious financial losses.4
The impact on people is just as great. While she was only 12 years old when the Taliban regained control, this girl is now 17. Instead of finishing secondary school and preparing for university, girls from this age group have had their adolescent years dominated by waiting for the ban to be lifted. Whereas this policy was described at first by Taliban officials as being temporary, it has become one of the most characteristic aspects of their regime.
Furthermore, these restrictions have affected life in public spaces in a major way. The ability of women to work has been hindered in many different spheres, and their movements and participation in society are ever more controlled. Human rights groups say that this policy collection has created a systematic system of discrimination against women and girls.5
The issue now confronting Afghanistan is whether this will ever end, and if so, what sort of damage has already been done before this can happen. Years lost at school can never be reclaimed. The more that time goes on, the greater the risk that Afghanistan loses a whole generation of doctors, teachers, entrepreneurs, academics, and politicians.
Economy on recovery path, people still poor
The Taliban came into power in a country that was highly reliant on foreign assistance. Following the takeover, the Afghan economy suffered a tremendous economic shock. The level of foreign aid became low, banking became difficult, overseas assets were frozen, and employment prospects deteriorated. The World Bank indicated that the Afghan economy went through a period of dramatic contraction following the Taliban takeover and began to recover slowly.6
Current statistics indicate that the situation is not as dire as the picture that emerges from the period immediately following 2021. The World Bank indicated a forecast of 4.3 percent growth for 2025 after 2.5 percent growth in 2024. Agriculture, mining, construction and services sectors have been driving the economy, along with increased revenue from the Taliban government.7
But despite growth, Afghanistan has not been able to get out of poverty because the situation there is highly unstable. Population growth, high unemployment levels, weak private investment, and reduced international aid have been constraining factors. Moreover, a great influx of refugees returning from neighbouring states has further strained the labour market and the limited public infrastructure.8
Herein lies one of the core contradictions in the policies of the Taliban government. While it has been gaining in terms of its administrative power and revenues, the ordinary Afghan family is facing tough times economically. The main issue here for a lot of people is not geopolitics or diplomatic recognition, but the price of food, employment possibilities, and caring for one’s children. The Taliban managed to take control of the country, but managing a poor, dependent, and internationally isolated nation has turned out to be much harder than waging a war.
Humanitarian Emergency or Man-made disaster?
After five years of their take-over, Afghanistan continues to be one of the biggest humanitarian emergencies in the world.
As per humanitarian planning of the United Nations for 2026, about 17.4 million people will experience acute food insecurity, out of which about 4.7 million people will have emergency-level food insecurity.9 Simultaneously, the humanitarian crisis has been compounded with the pressures of climate change, economic fragility, reduced aid and the mass return of Afghan refugees from neighbouring countries. Malnutrition is especially disturbing. As of June 2026, the United Nations reports that around 3.7 million children in Afghanistan are suffering from acute malnutrition.10 These statistics make it clear how political control can differ from human security. The Taliban may have control of the territory of Afghanistan, but millions of people continue to lack human security.
Additionally, the management of the crisis is being made more difficult as a result of a decline in international interest. At the time when the American-led intervention was taking place, Afghanistan was a prominent part of international politics. Ever since the withdrawal of foreign military units from Afghanistan, other conflicts and crises have taken centre stage. It is this lack of international interest that makes for a dangerous scenario. While human rights organizations keep working there, the financial support of their operations becomes highly unpredictable. Afghanistan remains a crisis country irrespective of how much it gets covered by international news channels.
Control Without Political Participation
The victory of the Taliban brought about a political system that was completely different from the Islamic Republic that existed prior to 2021.
There are no elections or an elected legislature in Afghanistan, which is no longer considered a democratic country. The Taliban rule without having any political opposition that could compete with them in governing the country. The participation of women in political processes is not welcome, and media functions within serious limitations.
According to Human Rights Watch, Taliban policies of the last five years have been part of the serious human rights crisis that has been spreading, especially among women and girls.11 It becomes increasingly difficult to criticise the regime or engage in journalism and activism. Supporters of the Taliban may argue that Afghanistan’s previous democratic institutions were weakened by corruption, foreign dependency and political division. There is some truth to the fact that the former republic struggled with all of these problems. Yet the failure of one political system does not necessarily justify the elimination of political participation altogether.
An enduring power must be more than just the triumph of force of arms. There must be institutions that will know how to resolve disputes, hold people accountable and involve the citizenry in their own destiny. The Taliban have shown what they can do in maintaining power five years after capturing Kabul. The greater challenge will be for them to build a legitimate political order.
Isolation and Selective Engagement
The Taliban’s engagement with the outside world has been another gradual development. For a number of years following 2021, no country officially recognized the Taliban administration despite many states maintaining de facto relations with Kabul. Governments were in a dilemma, since refusal to establish relations would increase the suffering of the Afghan people, but official recognition might serve as a seal of approval for the regime that severely restricts women and girls.
The turning point was the announcement made by Russia in July 2025 to be the first state officially recognizing the Taliban administration.12 Thereafter, Russia has tried to establish closer relations with Kabul, saying its policy is comprehensive including security, economic, and regional collaboration.13
Recognition by Russia did not lead to a rush of recognition by other countries, but it clearly shows that the Taliban are not completely isolated. There are real-world reasons why the surrounding states might want to have contact with Afghanistan, such as terrorism, refugees, trade and stability in the region. Thus, the Taliban find themselves in a rather unique position, while they rule Afghanistan and carry out foreign policy vis-à-vis several countries, they still lack that broad recognition which they had been seeking since their return to power. The problem of how they treat women and girls continues to be a barrier for better ties with the West.
Future: Stability Without Freedom?
Afghanistan, five years after the fall of Kabul, cannot simply be categorized in one term as either successful or failed.
The Taliban have put an end to the war in the country and have taken full control of the land; additionally, they have collected more internal revenues and created a recovering economy in the aftermath of the takeover. It is crucial to acknowledge all these points in order to evaluate the situation in Afghanistan accurately.
However, the aforementioned facts stand together with equally important ones. Millions of people in Afghanistan are starving. Children are malnourished. Political liberties have become scarce. Moreover, women have been systematically excluded from education and social life. Over 2.4 million girls have been deprived of their secondary education ever since 2021, which makes this issue not just a political controversy but a major challenge for the future of Afghanistan.14
The key issue is perhaps the viability of stability achieved in this way. For a nation cannot achieve economic progress by depriving a substantial segment of its citizens the right to learn and work. It will not be able to address its humanitarian issues while still being dependent on foreign aid. And foreign involvement will not solve Afghanistan’s problems without basic rights being guaranteed. Five years after 15 August 2021, the victory of the Taliban is beyond dispute. What is in question is their future.
For the people of Afghanistan, 15 August is not only about marking the fall of Kabul. It is about the progress made so far, the losses suffered and the potential that exists. The shooting may have become less intense in the last five years, but peace is more than the lack of conflict. Peace entails dignity, possibilities, education and hope for the future. For millions of Afghan women and girls, that future remains constrained. It is a situation where survival is still a constant struggle for many impoverished families who suffer from hunger. For the international community, Afghanistan still poses an unanswered question about its responsibility towards a country after twenty years of intervention, chaos in withdrawal, and five years of Taliban rule.
References
- Human Rights Watch. (2026, August 3). Afghanistan: 5 years under Taliban rule: A human rights crisis, a humanitarian catastrophe.
- Council on Foreign Relations. (2026, August 3). Violent extremism in South Asia. Global Conflict Tracker. The page identifies the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security as the publisher and states that it was updated August 3, 2026.
- Reuters. (2026, August 11). Taliban have barred 2.4 million Afghan girls from school since 2021, UNESCO says. Reuters. The article is explicitly attributed to Reuters and dated August 11, 2026.
- Ibid.
- Human Rights Watch. (2026, August 3). Afghanistan: 5 years under Taliban rule: A human rights crisis, a humanitarian catastrophe.
- World Bank. (2024). Afghanistan. World Bank. The linked PDF is a two-page Afghanistan economic update; it reports 2.7% economic growth in FY2023–24 and discusses the continuing economic challenges.
- World Bank. (2025, December 10). Afghan economy expands amid persistent challenges.
- Ibid.
- United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2025, December). Afghanistan: Humanitarian needs and response plan 2026. The 2026 plan identifies 21.9 million people in need, 17.5 million targeted for assistance, and requirements of US$1.71 billion.
- United Nations Office at Geneva. (2026, June 22). Afghanistan humanitarian update—OCHA. UN Geneva Multimedia Newsroom. The page identifies the story as an OCHA edited news item and gives the dateline as June 22, 2026.
- Human Rights Watch. (2026, August 3). Afghanistan: 5 years under Taliban rule: A human rights crisis, a humanitarian catastrophe.
- Bahiss, I. (2025, July 3). Russia becomes first state to recognise Taliban as rightful Afghan government. International Crisis Group.
- Reuters. (2026, May 14). Russia says it’s establishing ‘full partnership’ with Afghan Taliban. Reuters. The Reuters page attributes the article to Reuters and dates it May 14, 2026.
- Reuters. (2026, August 11). Taliban have barred 2.4 million Afghan girls from school since 2021, UNESCO says. Reuters.
(Author, a Ph.D in International Studies from JNU, is an educator, author, researcher and commentator on international politics, with expertise in ancient political thought, democracy, political psychology and Asian geopolitics.)