CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Winter Olympics: China heading for isolation

Communist Party of China and President Xi’s track record of human rights violations and unabated expansionism have riled the world Amritpal Kaur / New Delhi Winter Olympics and Paralympics this year being held in China beginning next week were to be showcased as President Xi Jingping’s acumen and dexterity with which he engaged the world. If reports were anything to go by, it’s not working for President Xi Jingping and his Communist Party of China that’s burning midnight oil to prevent the country’s total isolation in the international community. First came the political and diplomatic boycott of Chinese winter Olympics by the world powers to send out a strong message against well documented human rights violations of Uighur muslim minorities. Though most countries may still send in their sporting contingents, their officials will skip to protest against abuse and genocide unleashed against Uighurs. Going back to its origin in 1896, Olympics have been touted as the bridge to mitigate differences among countries and forging a bond of friendship. On the contrary, Winter Olympics 2022 being held at Beijing have walked into a grave shadow of all round acrimony due to China’s arbitrary actions with a number of Southeast Asian neighbours’ boycotting the games. Looming threat of Omicron variant of COVID-19 and massive internet crackdown by the powerful regulator in China has also not gone well with sporting nations. Since the last decade, Chinese growth story has translated into its assertiveness and obsession for blanket security theology. Its resurgence has made China more vocal treading on the verge of covert violence. One dimension of such an upturn has been China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours like USSR and Myanmar but with varying outcomes that range between amicable solution and outright arm twisting. However, amicable solutions have been scarce and far in between.  In fact, the last amicable resolution of border dispute that China achieved was in 2011 with Tajikistan. On the contrary, the past decade shows a marked change in the Chinese modus operandi in dealing with such disputes. Since 2009 Beijing has been claiming unilaterally South China Sea its territorial waters by pushing forward Nine-dash Line which demarcates the whole of the water body as its territory. South China Sea has been a central to territorial dispute between China and its South East Asian neighbours. And, this got accentuated beginning 2013 when China started developing Spratley Island and Paracel Island region. The Chinese state has been claiming ownership of most uninhabited islands in South China Sea Zone at a fast pace. These Islands include Cuarton Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Johnson South Reef, Mischief Reef, Subi Reef. Though Vietnam had been reclaiming some islands, what set the alarm bells ringing was the urgency with which Chinese started to develop these shoals. During 2014-16, China reclaimed more islands and territories than all other nations combined in the region’s history. Graver aspect of this Chinese belligerence is militarizing these islands. South China Sea is a narrow body which is also strategic as an important marine route that accounts for substantial world trade at over $ 3 trillion annually. Chinese attempt to capture scattered islands and fortifying them as its military zones has unnerved several of its friends and foes alike. Discreet reclamation of territories led to coining of term, ‘Salami Slicing’, that denotes Chinese attempt to expand its territory, one shoal at a time. Chinese expansionism has been in full display in its tussle with its India. Though settlement of Himalayan border issue has been an elusive phenomenon, over a period India and China had developed a mechanism to keep bilateral relations cordial while taking a piecemeal approach to disputed territory. Passage of Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (1993) during the Narasimha Rao era is a case in point. Subsequently, technical agreements to manage the border issues were adopted after tough negotiations in 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2013. However, recent skirmishes in the high Himalayas including Galwan crisis, Pangong Tso tussle, Depsang Plain offensive in 2020 is a worrying signal. According to experts, China is engaged in salami slicing of Himalayan border by taking one post at a time. It has also been speculated that China is keeping the Himalayan fault lines simmering to hem India and gain simultaneous advantage in the Indian Ocean as an emerging blue water navy. This expansionist posture, mastering the seas around and major sea lanes of communication, it’s a crucial move in the strategic chess that China continues to play. Chinese arm twisting and expansionism is visible in the recently enacted Land Border Act (2021). On the face of it, the act charts the course that China is to adopt in the border determining process. It states that territorial sovereignty is inviolable and China would ‘resolutely defend territorial sovereignty and land border security.’ But, the trouble with this assertion is that only India and Bhutan do not have a settled border with China. Further, China’s ‘official map’ unilaterally claims entire Arunachal Pradesh, Barahoti plains of Uttarakhand and territory till 1959 claim line in the Ladakh region as its own land mass. The act of China declaring complete ownership of rivers running through its territory setting aside claims of lower riparian states had led to more disputes with neighbours. As far as India is concerned, its recently adopted Land Border Act has no validity since it has no veracity or solid ground. China seems to be waging a psychological offensive against its neighbors, through posturing, unilaterally declaration of unacceptable claims on disputed territories as well as constantly shifting goal posts.  Since the Sixth Plenary Session of Communist Party of China in November 2021, it has been obvious that President Xi would continue into his third term as Chinese President. He has already put himself in the list of great leaders of China next only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping with his thought enshrined in the Chinese Constitution. Winter Olympics for him could have been a virtual crowing, a cherry on top of

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Growth, Growth & more Growth should be the mantra!

Work opportunities for seekers & carving out more job-givers be the focus, emphasis on big picture will drive economic expansion K.A.Badarinath / New Delhi When finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman rises to present her fourth budget in continuum on February 1, the dedicated app, tablet or bahri katha will in all likelihood croon ‘naya bharat’ – New India — big time. One should not miss this soft singing for the determined bid she will make by laying threadbare plans to build ‘New India’ of her leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dreams. As the country gets ready for next economic prosperity cycle, 75-years post-independence, this plan and vision to turn India into a global economic power house would definitely be significant. Finance Minster Sitharaman who’s credited with steering the economy through the Covid 19 pandemic deftly cannot afford to ignore or set aside the challenges that besiege Indian economy in medium term. Well, if third wave of corona virus infections is waning out as experts believe, this should signal a comprehensive plan to rebuild what was lost to the pandemic and nurture the dream of $ 5 trillion economic muscle that drives the global growth impulses. GDP growth of 9.2 per cent projected for 2021-22, highest in 17-years should be the basis for rolling out the big picture while holding the handle firmly to sustain this growth momentum next five years in a row. Crude prices hitting $ 100 from current $ 86 per barrel may be the first big challenge she needs to factor in her budget package. Fuel induced inflationary pressures is what could moderate her big plans. Let’s not forget that fuel inflation was 10.95 per cent in December, 2021, 13.35 per cent in November 2021 and 14.35 per cent. With oil imports to cross $ 100 billion again next fiscal, reining in consumer centric inflation will still be a tricky preposition given that it touched 5.59 per cent in December 2021. Pointing to inflationary pressures leading to interest rate hikes is not to distract the Finance Minister away from her top priority to put the economy on high growth trajectory. We should be able to live with 4 – 6 per cent retail inflation next three years even as Nirmala Sitharaman goes about methodically in fiscal consolidation to putting economy on firm expansion mode. Unlike US and Europe that are swept with 30 – 40 years high consumer inflation, India still has headroom in inflation management as well as moderating interest rates. Growth, growth and more growth should be the only mantra that dictates Finance Minister’s budget package which got deviated last two years owing to Covid 19 management and related expenses. A conscious call will have to be taken on front-ending capital and infrastructure investments with at least 10 per cent increase in budget expenditure that was pegged at Rs 34,83,236 crore for 2021-22. Government will have to tango both domestic and foreign investors to sustain healthy growth momentum with expansion in industry, services as well as exports. Since farmers have delivered and continue to do so with about four per cent agriculture growth, emphasis should be on industrial expansion and double digit growth of services with focus on external markets. In this big picture, keeping the fiscal deficit at six per cent may not be a breeze next fiscal but doable given that 6.8 per cent target set for 2021-22 is all set to be achieved. Healthy growth in goods and services tax revenues is a big plus in deficit management. About Rs 1.29 lakh crore collection in December 2021 and Rs 1.31 lakh crore in the month before only hints at pent up consumer demand that’s driving sales and resultant revenue mop up. Merchandise exports at about $ 400 billion in 2021-22 are again a possibility. During January 1 – 7, 2022 alone, exports grew by about 25 per cent to $ 7.63 billion. Even in December 2021, India clocked an export growth of 36.2 per cent to $ 23.8 billion in just three weeks. This momentum needs to be sustained to touch a possible $ 500 billion in the entire next fiscal. Putting together a big package to boost India’s share in global merchandise exports is something that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman can do. Given the adage that taxes are not exported, boosting tax revenues through exports is not what should happen. Instead exports linked manufacturing will help increase the work opportunities that have been hard to come by. Setting up export-linked manufacturing infrastructure will drive growth in near future. This brings us to oft discussed question of growth versus jobs. Without creating jobs for millions of aspiring youngsters or an environment for job-givers, the $ 5 trillion dream means nothing for 1.4 billion Indians that are on the move. Official data shows that 1.39 million net new jobs were created in November 2021 registering 37.9 per cent increase year on year basis. Finance Minister Sitharaman will have to carve out opportunities for workers in informal sector where millions may have to get into manufacturing, services and export-linked merchandise production. This needs to get a little innovative, if her budget package has to be accepted and sustained. (Author is Director & Chief Executive Officer at Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies. Views expressed are author’s own.)

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Unleash Unicorns, Support Start-Ups

Let India home to one million start-ups, 1000 unicorns in four years. Extend tax incentives, holidays; slash patents, trademark fees further K.A.Badarinath / New Delhi When Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal proposed creating 75 unicorns during seventy fifth year of India’s Independence, cynics sneered and questioned the entire start up ecosystem that evolved organically in last six years. On social media pages, these doomsayers even bracketed Indian start- ups as some kind of a scam in the making without recognizing the inherent talent, technology skills and aspiration of Indian youth that has gone in to provide multiple cost-effective solutions and businesses. Cynics and naysayers should take a walk rather than questioning the pace with which digital enterprises have reported growth, success, attracted international capital and were toasted the world over. Many of these start-ups have not only moved up as unicorns with over $ one billion valuation each but effectively challenged established large technology companies with deep pockets. There’s no reason why we cannot create 75 unicorns given that 44 such firms came into being in 2021 with eye popping valuation of $ 89.19 billion. This is more than unicorns that were created in the previous decade.  Chasing US with 487 and China’s 301digital enterprises, India has upended as the fulcrum for third most valued technology start-ups with unicorn status. Today, India boasts being home to 82 unicorns valued at $ 274.17 billion. As per independent research and consultancy firm Hurun Global, these unicorns spread across sectors like education technology, financial services, software services to e-commerce in pharmacy and groceries have made waves especially during Covid 19 when lock downs and movement restrictions have been a norm. Every seventh unicorn created globally has been done by youngsters in India and Bengaluru emerging as the epicentre for these digital enterprises with immense value. Rightly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi lauded emergence of a flurry of unicorns in just 12 months while celebrating the Swami Vivekananda Jayanti that marks national youth day. There’s no denying that India has the potential to evolve as the unbeatable destination for unique digital enterprises given the country’s love for everything around technology, innovation and creativity that’s virtually flummoxed the world. Over 50,000 such enterprises are in various stages of development taking off from incubation. From providing innovative security solutions, environment management, healthcare, space to industry 4.0, these start-ups have changed rules of game redefining Brand India as the mouse movers did in last two decades. These start-ups were primarily responsible for upping the valuations of traditional businesses and moving India’s position on the Global innovation index to 46 last year from 74th position in 2016. While a firm base for these lilliputian enterprises has been laid in last six years, shifting focus to manufacturing, automation, research and development start-ups may galvanise the traditional enterprises as well as businesses. Similarly, finding technology driven solutions faced day to day is an area that the unicorns as well as start-ups can add value. Targeted expansion in number of decacons with a valuation of $ 10 billion and above can be attempted in next phase. Right now, India is home to just four of them in Byju’s, Oyo Rooms, Paytm and Flipcart. A comprehensive strategy to nurture at least ten decacons should be put in place by the government in partnership with the start-ups ecosystem. Doubling the number of unicorns run by our women entrepreneurs to 26 next one year by the time we celebrate the startup day on January 16 is again doable. Let’s not forget that eight of the unicorns run by women emerged in just one year with Falguni Nayar (Nykaa), Gazal Kalra (Rivigo), Ruchi Kalra (OfBusiness), Divya Gokulnath (Byju’s), Ghazal Alagh (MamaEarth) and Saritha Katikaneni (Zenoti), among others made it to the list. Union budget to be presented on February 1 should be the right forum to review, revise and make fresh booster dose announcements for the sunrise start-ups and unicorns that have not only evolved businesses in trying times but created work opportunities for talented youngsters. Right now, start-ups pay only 20 per cent of patent filing fees. Barring a nominal fees, can we do away with major chunk of the compliance burden? Both product and process patents have seen a huge up tick at 28,000 last year as against 4000 in 2013-14. Start-up ecosystem has contributed big time to the high value patented products and processes. If finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has the leeway, should she not consider providing 90 per cent discount on trademark filing fees for start-ups? Already, these digital enterprises enjoy 50 per cent discount on trade mark filing fees. Reduction in the compliance burden has in last six years has led to registering over 250,000 trademarks as against 70,000 in 2013-14. Improving the patenting and trademarks regime apart from extending the zero-tax impost should help India top the high value start-ups game in next four years. States like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana should in particular pick up the gauntlet to blossom a million start-ups by 2025. Moving these start-ups the value chain with a mix of artificial intelligence, robotics and internet of things can be the next phase to look at. (Author is Director & Chief Executive Officer at Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies. Views expressed are author’s own.)

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War Room to Fight Cyber Wars, Secure Economy

A comprehensive policy must be put together to ring fence cyber fraudsters, mafia and hackers to insulate Indian financial markets K.A.Badarinath / New Delhi Even as RBI readies its plans to launch digital rupee later this year, government and banking regulator’s big focus will have to be on insulating Indian economy from cyber frauds, graft and securing the country’s financial interests. Enhancing economic security in the cyber world would be pre-requisite to further opening currency space through digital instruments. Given the cynical innovation in cyber-attacks that have been reported globally, scaling up the firewalls is the only option while making it a breeze for consumers to undertake financial transactions. On the top of it, introduction of digital currency would lead to new vulnerabilities vis-à-vis fraudsters and possible instability that security breaches could lead to in the economy. Reports said that at least 900 Indians were scammed of over Rs 1200 crore in an initial public offering of a non-existent crypto currency named ‘ICO’. This is only tip of ice-burg in the world of cybercrimes on economic front. While vetoing the proposal to introduce private crypto currencies, these concerns and impending economic uneasiness were flagged by the country’s central banker and RBI Governor Shakti Kanta Das. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will do well in rolling out a policy to secure India’s economic and financial interests in the cyber world. Union Budget to be presented on February 1 should kick off such a policy framework. Securing the financial ecosystem is particularly significant as more and more transactions are going online.  As per data released by National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), in December 2020 alone, over 4.56 billion transactions involving Rs 8.27 trillion (Rs 8.27 lakh crore) have gone online through united payments interface or UPI. Akin to consultations on crypto currencies led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, multi-stakeholders meeting on securing Indian economy in cyber space should be kicked off immediately. As per Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), cybercrimes are on the rise in India. Till June 2021, cybercrimes in the Indian financial markets were a staggering 6.07 lakh. The year before, about 11.58 lakh cybercrimes were committed while thousands of such instances went unreported. Rise technology related frauds were a fact as such cases more than doubled in two years from 3.94 lakh reported in 2019. In value terms, over $ 300 billion worth transactions marking about 18 per cent of consumption GDP during 2021 has been estimated by Hong Kong based independent capital markets and investments consultancy group, CLSA. As per CLSA projections, online transactions are estimated to touch a whopping $ 900 billion to $ one trillion by 2025-26. This is a huge jump given that online transactions accounted for about $ 61 billion that translate to little over six per cent of consumption GDP in 2015-16. This may include banking, non-banking and all financial markets transactions including equities, commodities, bullion and real estate etc apart from corporate deals. Another set of figures available are available in the 2021 report of PwC India and the Data Security Council of India. As per the report, value of digital payments in India was estimated to grow annually at 20.2 per cent from about US $ 64.8 billion in 2019 to US $ 135.2 billion in 2023. Given the huge stakes, India will have to draw up a comprehensive policy framework against cybercrimes in economic space. To start with, a war room may have to be set up like the Modi government did to deal with intransigent, expansionist and unreasonable neighbours like China and Pakistan. In RockYou 2021 cyber-attack that happened June last year, about 8.4 billion passwords were breached thereby wreaking havoc on the economic structures and consumers globally. In a similar attack, way back in 2009, about 32 million online accounts were compromised. This is not the first time such large scale hacking got unleashed on humanity and had the potential to wreck companies with billions of dollar by hackers and unethical operators. WannaCry Ransomware, one of the biggest attacks in 2017 compromised over 200,000 computers across 150 countries having devastating impact on several industries. It cost the world markets humungous six billion pounds in just a couple of days. Let’s not forget hacking of Yahoo servers that led to compromise of 500 million accounts though no banking information was stolen. But, Adobe cyber-attack in 2013 was different as over 2.9 million credit card users information was stolen, personal data of 38 million users got into wrong hands. Given that every industry, bank and financial markets operate in cyberspace, newer and innovative cybercrimes are bound to put billions of dollars at risk. Covid 19 pandemic in its third and fourth waves during last two years have taken most industry and services operations online thereby exposing themselves to the fraudsters like never before. Similar is the case with governance in states and centre where key issues were discussed in chat rooms or private online conference rooms that face attacks and infiltrated in continuum. Exponential digital growth, rising cyber-attacks, and stringent regulatory mandates have landed Indian economy and financial markets in a piquant situation. (Author is Director & Chief Executive Officer at Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies. Views expressed are author’s own.)

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Biden’s Summit for Democracy and Human Rights around the World

Prachi Mishra / New Delhi The United States of America under the leadership of President Biden launched the first Summit for Democracy, held virtually on 9th and 10th of December 2021. This Summit lays the foundation for deliberation and discussion on the preservation of democracy and human rights in the coming decade. A week before the Summit, the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) released a paper on total democracy under one party rule as a strong assertion to the Summit. In a white paper released by the CPC, titled, “China: Democracy That Works”, China stated that it is the ‘largest democracy’ in the world. This is the first time that both the PRC and the CPC have claimed that China’s governance structures and policies run on democratic principles. U.S. President Joe Biden’s Summit and CPC’s white paper provide a fitting context to this analysis on human rights in various forms of governance systems around the world.   In the last few years, there have been unprecedented challenges that have plagued most democracies. Be it the widening digital divide or the issue of gender-based crime, the nature of socio-economic challenges seemed to have weakened the democratic systems around the world. Similarly, over the course of the last decade, human rights violations around the world have also increased manifold. Non-democratic regimes, like China and Qatar, witness growing number of such cases but owing to their system of governance and media reportage, human rights violations in these countries are underreported or not reported at all. In this context, there is a pressing need to strengthen democratic systems and ensure that violation of people’s basic rights is addressed. In this brief, we draw a comparative analysis of human rights violations in different forms of governance systems. We present – Communist regimes, with a focus on China Theocratic regimes, with a focus on Pakistan Absolute monarchies, with a focus on Qatar Democracies, with a focus on India; and Totalitarian regimes, with a focus on North Korea The analysis is based on several indicators, viz., the nature of rights that are most often violated in a regime. These include women’s rights, rights to freedom of religion, children’s rights, freedom of expression and privacy, minority rights inter alia. Be it the suppression of Uyghur Muslims in China or the unlawful persecution of religious minorities in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan or the inequality faced by women in Qatar, human rights are violated in each of these regimes but are sparsely covered in the media. In totalitarian regimes, like North Korea, violations are seldom reported, and data is unavailable for most of these indicators. In a functioning democracy, reasonably India, where the four pillars of democracy work independent of each other, human rights violations are duly reported, and the judiciary has been playing a crucial role in providing justice to the aggrieved. The independence of media has led to greater reportage of violations which is often misconceived as failure of democratic systems. This calls for a balanced view of all governance systems and how reporting of violations are suppressed in many of them. Based on the interventions provided during the Summit, this brief lays down a few recommendations on upholding the human rights in democratic systems. Violations based on the nature of governance system Qatar Qatar’s political system is a de facto absolute monarchy, with the Emir of Qatar serving as the country’s head of state and administration. Qatari legislation is primarily based on Sharia law. According to the 2003 Qatari constitutional referendum, it was decided that the state of Qatar will be a constitutional monarchy with an elected legislature, yet elections were repeatedly postponed since 2013. Finally, in November 2020, Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani announced that the elections will take place in October 2021. Following an announcement by the Emir of Qatar on August 22, 2021, general elections were held for the first time on October 2, 2021. Men and women over the age of 18 years were eligible to vote for thirty (30) of the fourty-five (45) seats in the Consultative Assembly, with the remaining fifteen (15) selected by the Emir. The thirty 30 seats were contested by two hundred eighty-four (284) individuals, including 29 women aspiring leaders. All candidates ran as independents as political parties are prohibited by constitution. No female candidates were elected and according to various non-governmental organisations, thousands of Qataris were denied the right to vote. Thereby, casting shadows on the Qatari constitutional monarchy claims. Freedom of Expression Qatar’s hereditary emir is in charge of all executive and legislative powers, as well as the judiciary. There are no political parties allowed, and while Qatari citizens are among the world’s wealthiest, the vast bulk of the population is made up of non-citizens who lack political rights, civil liberties, curtailed freedom of expression, freedom of religion and economic opportunities. In Qatar both print and broadcast media are influenced by powerful families and censored by the government. The international television network Al-Jazeera is showcased and branded to be exhibited as privately owned, however, the government is said to have compensated for its operating costs since 1996. In Qatar, all journalists practice some form of self-censorship and may risk jail time for defamation and other press violations. Access to the independent English-language website Doha News was restored in May 2020, after it had been prohibited in late 2016 due to a lack of an operating authorization. In 2017, and 2020, the outlet once more changed hands before resuming full operations. A change to the penal code in January 2020 makes spreading or publishing “fake news” punishable by up to five years in prison or a fine of 100,000 riyals ($27,500). The new ambiguously written rule that criminalises a wide variety of speech and publication activities threatens to severely curtail Qatar’s freedom of expression in Qatar. Religious Freedom Islam is the official religion in the State of Qatar. There is no constitutional protection for freedom of religion. However, the constitution

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Ban Crypto Currencies, No Exceptions

Without ‘ifs or buts’, crypto-money fueling speculation, online frauds, financing drug trade and terror through dark web be shut K.A.Badarinath / New Delhi India is not one of those Baltic republics where economic governance structures are either weak or non-existent. Neither is India run on exotic market instruments as is the case with a few European economies and the US. Indian economic management is also distinctly different from ‘commanding heights’ oligarchs that control communist regime in China. Since, India has its own thinking on economic and development issues and a population of 1.4 billion, the country may have to chart its own course on key issues like crypto-currencies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with various stakeholders last week, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Reserve Bank of India’s governor Shakti Kanta Das have outlined India’s policy towards crypto-currency mania that continues to sweep several geographies like a storm. In Indian context, it’s not desirable to introduce or legalize crypto-currencies. Block chain based technologies may have other financial sector applications that can definitely be pursued for digitizing Indian economy. No one has an issue with exploring full potential of block chain technologies. But, one cannot make crypto currencies, a legal tender. Neither can crypto-currencies be treated as an asset that can be held, transferred or traded on market platforms or on the dark web, legally or illegally. It does not matter as to what’s the intention of countries like El Salvador in creating exclusive crypto-currency city. India cannot afford to gamble on crypto-currencies on which even advanced market based economies like US are to come to terms with. Union cabinet’s decision after several rounds of stakeholders’ consultations is significant as it seeks to ban all private crypto currencies. Simultaneously, Narendra Modi government’s move to introduce digital rupee beginning next year is precursor to digitizing US $ 3.08 trillion strong Indian economy. Digital rupee to possibly be introduced by RBI will be backed by sovereign assets and guarantees like any other banking instrument or paper. Digital currencies as legal tender have been contemplated by several central banks around the world. Even as Parliament’s winter session began on Monday, lobbies continued to work behind the scenes to push government towards either status quo on crypto-currencies or their weak regulation. These lobbies must be shown their place. Modi government need not be either apologetic or apprehensive on its decision to slap a complete ban on private crypto-currencies. In the sense, holding cryptos, their transfer and trading becomes an illegal activity and punishable under statute.  This measure would also insulate Indian economy and markets from possible destabilization due to these speculative instruments. RBI governor Shakti Kanta Das has rightly pointed to ‘instability’ and economic gloom that crypto-currencies would ring in for India. The ban in itself cannot be viewed as Modi government being anti-reforms or new age technologies. For the youngsters that are high on block chain based trading of crypto money on unregulated exchanges or dark web, the decision may be a wee-bit unsettling. Retail investors in India that reportedly are over15 million with exposures up to US $ 6 billion on crypto speculations may be better off with protective cover of the state. Given that crypto-currency transactions cannot be brought under either banking regulator RBI or markets watchdog, Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the best possible option exercised by government is to ban them. Hence, these crypto-currencies related transactions cannot be taxed as well. Apart from validity or valuation issues, crypto-currencies misuse leading to serious security issues is what Prime Minister Modi hinted while chairing a meeting of stakeholders, bankers and investors last week. For instance, Enforcement Directorate has pointed to about Rs 4000 crore worth funds routed through crypto-transactions to launder ill-gotten funds by economic offenders.  Can we open another channel for tax evaders, corrupt people and traders to legitimize their ill-gotten wealth? A recent study of Paris-based Financial Action Force (FATF) flagged 56 million illegal transactions on one crypto exchange named Liberty Reserve that was busted by US enforcement agencies. Liberty Reserve is just one of such exchanges whose numbers run into thousands and enable illegal transactions in billions. Crypto-currencies and exchanges by design do not allow for any regulation or enforcement and operate outside of banking channels in most geographies including India where banks wisely kept off from such operations. In the infamous Aryan Khan case last month, Narcotics Control Bureau had pointed to payments made using crypto-currencies to acquire drugs that were recovered from a ship owned by Cordelia Cruises. Drug pedlars were paid in bitcoins for the narcotic substances busted from the ship off the Mumbai coast in the aftermath of a rave party. World over the narcotics drug trade, laundered funds, credit card frauds, identity theft, investment frauds, computer hacking scandals were linked to crypto-currencies as per the FATF report. Terror financing by Pakistani outfits, Afghanistan’s Taliban and jihadists apart from Church using crypto-currencies were reportedly flagged by government officials in internal discussions. United Nations Centre for Counter Terrorism (UNCCT) had been pushing for a workable framework to prevent use of digital money including crypto-currencies to finance terrorist activities globally. Crypto-currency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021 to be piloted by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the on-going winter session of parliament may have to take 360 degrees view and ban the crypto-currencies without exceptions. SEBI panel has rightly pointed out that since there are no underlying assets, crypto-currencies cannot be bracketed as a class of assets like stocks, debt paper, legal tender, real estate or commodities. Even in most advanced economies like US, the banking regulators are yet to make comprehensive plans on crypto-currency while some states have gone ahead with their set of rules. Federal Reserve in US, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Comptroller of Currency may take the entire 2022 to chart a plan for crypto-currencies. While China has gone ahead to ban crypto-currencies beginning with issue of coins, all mining operations were shut down to safeguard its small investors.  In

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Child Sexual Abuse: French Clergy Priests Turn Predators

Prachi Mishra / New Delhi Analysis of the Summary of the Final Report on Sexual Violence in the Catholic Church France 1950-2020, issued by the Independent Commission on Sexual Abuse by the Catholic Church (CIASE The report presents an overview of sexual violence committed against children and other vulnerable persons systematically by the Catholic Church and its affiliated institutions in France in the last seventy years. Based on their findings, the Commission has broadly classified incidence of sexual violence into the following three categories: 1950 to 1970 – this period witnessed the maximum number of cases, with incidents rising every year 1970 to 1990 – this period saw a fall in the number of incidents of sexual abuse and violence 1990 to present – this period witnessed resurgence in the number of cases and incidence of sexual abuse and violence The report suggests that prevalence of sexual violence against children was in regions where religious tenets were not followed. The Commission attributed this to lower levels of superintendence of priests and low intolerance for misconduct on behalf of the priests and other clergy. Most cases of abuse and violence have been documented well in such regions. As per the report, the victims of the abuse were predominantly pre-adolescent boys from all socio-economic backgrounds. Sexual abuse and violence have been classified into six categories based on the perpetrator: Parochial abuse – committed by a local priest; School abuse – committed by a priest, theology teachers, and others associated with the Church; Educational abuse – committed by scout leaders or patrons; Therapeutic abuse – committed by a priest or a Church authority acting as a healer or a psychotherapist; Prophetic abuse – committed by Church authorities within the new communities which were popular in the 1970s; and Family abuse – committed by a family member or a close family friend As per the Commission, three tenets of the Catholic Church were used as grounds to exploit children and other vulnerable sections of the society. These are: Religious sacraments A sense of vocation Charity (helping others through the Church) The Commission has also recorded sexual violence and abuse against adults committed by the Church. Nuns and seminarists were subjected to violation and exploitation owing to power and control of those who were superior in authority to them. The Commission concluded that 330,000 children suffered abuse at the hands of the Church staff including those employed at Catholic schools, persons providing chaplaincy services, scout leaders, Catholic youth movement organizers, and religious members. Of these children, 65% (216,000) were assaulted and violated solely by priests, deacons, and other religious workers of the Church. Over one-third of these cases were committed by laypersons associated with the Church. Of the total number of cases of sexual abuse on children, 1.16% were committed by the Church and those associated. The report claims that the share of Church-led abuse is higher than abuse committed in other social set ups. Table 1 highlights these. Table 1. Percentage share in cases of sexual abuse against children Social set up Percentage share in number of cases Holiday camps 0.36% State schools 0.34% Sports clubs 0.28% Cultural and artistic activities 0.17% Catholic Church 1.16% The report suggests that the number of perpetrators of these crimes were between 2900 and 3200. This implies that there were a very high number of victims per perpetrator. A few cases have not yet been investigated and hence the Commission issued a range rather than absolute numbers. After investigations, the Commission commented on the attitude of the Church during the last seventy years. From 1950 to 1970, the attitude of the Church was to protect itself from such scandals and to save the aggressors. Hence, it concealed the fate of the victims and urged them to stay silent. From 1970 to 1990, the Church sidelined the issue of sexual violence at the hands of the clergy and rather chose to address the priesthood crisis, wherein the clergy had begun to dominate internal structures of the Church, monopolizing decision making within the system. From 1990 to 2010 the attitude of the Church started to change. It started recognizing the abuse faced by victims and started identifying the victims. From 2010 onwards, the Church started reporting these cases to the judicial systems, imposed sanctions on aggressors based on the Canon Law, and acknowledged the fact that dealing with such cases should no longer be an internal matter. Why did the Church fail to address these cases of sexual violence against children? The Commission analyzed the structure and working the Church and realized that the shortcomings or inaction was rooted in an archaic Canon Law. As per the law, It is important to safeguard sacraments and to reform the sinner; The victim holds no importance in the law, hence, there can be no justice for the victim in the systems of the Church; Sexual violence is not mentioned in the law, making it ill-fit to repress the incidence of sexual violence. (Prachi is a research consultant at Center for Integrated and Holistic Studies. Views expressed are author’s own.)

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Bangladesh: Violence against Hindus, Buddhist & Other Minorities

The terrible story of the Hindus in Bangladesh began with the 1947 genocide. It reached a pinnacle during the Bangladesh Liberation War when about three million Hindus had been slaughtered in one of the century’s largest genocides, which continues to this day. Over the years, thousands of Hindu shops have been plundered. Hundreds of Hindu business people have been killed. Acres of land belonging to Hindus have been forcefully occupied. Innumerable Hindu temples have been vandalised. Targeted killings of men, abduction of girls and women with intent to rape and murder have been principal tactics of fundamental Islamists. These fundamentalists primarily belong to the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, its student wings and other radical Islamists, Jihadi groups, political parties and associations active in the region. As a result, thousands of Hindu families have been forced to flee Bangladesh. Since decades, Islamic indoctrination and radicalisation in Bangladesh have been a worry for minorities. Several Hindu families have been falsely accused of insulting Islam. Such accusations have often tragically resulted in looting and plundering of Hindu shops and households.  Two notable examples of jihadi violence based on made-up blasphemy accusations were Brahmanbaria (2016) and Thakurpara (2017). Moreover, the law-and-order agencies of the country have repeatedly failed to take requisite measures to bring peace and stability, indicating their appeasement of the majority Islamic community. Over the last seventy years, the number of Hindus in Bangladesh has been on decline. Figure 1 depicts Bangladeshi population demography trends in percentage based on the Ministry of Planning data and the Bureau of Statistics, Government of Bangladesh. As per data from the Bangladesh Jatiya Hindu Mohajote’s annual report released in 2020, the following figures (2, 3, 4) detail the atrocities against Hindus in the country. Similarly, recent anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh by Islamic mobs (primarily members of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh) started on Wednesday, October 13, 2021. It was just hours after falsified images of a copy of the Quran in the lap of Lord Hanuman’s idol at a Durga Puja pandal (makeshift Hindu celebratory place of worship) in Cumilla district were circulated over Internet. Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing (Islami Chhatra Shibir) members have reportedly committed the act. Subsequently, on the dreadful night of October 13, 2021, Muslim mobs stormed the pandal, accusing Hindus of blasphemy and setting off a chain of pre-planned attacks on Hindu pandals and temples across Bangladesh. Update*: On October 20, 2021, one thirty-five-year-old Iqbal Hossain, son of Nur Ahmed Alam from the Sujanagar area in Comilla, was identified as the individual who placed the Quran at the pandal. Bangladesh: Violence against Hindus Timeline Wednesday, October 13, 2021 Cumilla, Chittagong division of Bangladesh On the day of Maha Ashtami, a sacred day for Hindus, thirty-five-year-old Iqbal Hossain, entered the Nanuar Dighir Par Durga Mandir in Cumilla district of Bangladesh and placed a copy of the Quran in the lap of Hindu God Hanuman’s idol. As per local district officials, the individual took photos of the scene before fleeing.  The initial attacks commenced in the evening and were planned, orchestrated by local units of Jamaat-e-Islami and its student-wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir. Over four hundred (400) Jamaat-e-Islami Islamists attacked Hindu men, women and children, torched more than twenty Hindu houses, Durga Puja pandals, and vandalised temples around the area. Chittagong, Chittagong division In Chittagong, the iconic Bura Kali temple in Banshkhali district was attacked along with several other smaller temples. Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong division In Cox’s Bazar, a Puja pandal in Kachharaimura Sheelpara was attacked and Hindu were households vandalised in Mognama. Chandpur, Chittagong division In Chandpur, violent Islamist mob spread communal violence, attacked Puja pandals at Lakshmi Narayan Akhara temple in Hajiganj. Multiple deaths were reported. Lakshmipur, Chittagong division In Lakshmipur, a violent Islamist mob attacked two temples in Ramgati and Ramganj districts. Noakhali, Chittagong division   In Noakhali, a Puja pandal was vandalised by Jamaat-e-Islami mob late at night. Thursday, October 14, 2021 Cumilla, Chittagong division   Violence continued in Cumilla and other parts of Bangladesh. Puja pandals set up on the banks of Nanua Dighi (in Cumilla district) were vandalised, idols burnt and broken. As per reports from local news agencies, a total of nine (9) Puja pandals were razed to the ground. Ghazipur, Dhaka division   In Ghazipur, a group of Islamists armed with sticks vandalised idols at Kashimpur’s Radha Gobinda Temple. Paschim Para and Pal Para temples were also attacked the same night. Bandarban, Chittagong division   In Bandarban, there was a morning attack on peaceful Hindu devotees. Islamist mobs stormed the Central Hari Mandir in Bandarban’s Lama upazila, leading to violence and destruction of Hindu property. When the police intervened to save the Hindu devotees from the violent mob, around fifty police personnel were attacked and subsequently injured in the attack.  Khulna, Khulna division  At around 7:00 p.m. local time, Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) retrieved 18 crude bombs from main gate of Rupsa Maha Shashan, which contains a Hindu Kali temple. The role of Jamaat-e-Islami and its student-wing Islami Chhatra Shibir again resurfaced during investigations. Friday, October 15, 2021 Chittagong, Chittagong division   After the Juma prayers (Friday prayers) hundreds of Islamists marched out of the Shahi Jama Masjid and attacked Hindus at the Puja venue at Anderkilla. Soon after the incident, they dispersed from the site amidst inaction by the Bangladeshi police. Noakhali, Chittagong division   An innocent Hindu devotee was butchered in Noakhali’s Begumganj upazila after an Islamic mob attacked Hindu residences. According to ISKCON authorities, a 500-strong mob first vandalised a Durga Puja pandal adjacent to the temple before attacking the devotees in the ISKCON temple. Barisal, Barisal division   In Barisal, jihadi mobs vandalised three Hindu temples late in the night at Gournadi upazila. Saturday, October 16, 2021 Munshiganj, Dhaka division  In early hours of October 16, Islamic radicals vandalised six idols of Hindu gods and goddesses at a Kali temple in Sirajdikhan upazila, Munshiganj.  Feni, Chittagong division   Following an ‘Asr prayers’, an Islamist procession begins in front of the

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Situation Analysis: Coal Capacities in India

Prachi Mishra / New Delhi India is the second largest producer of coal and the fifth largest in terms of coal deposits in the world. India’s coal profile comprises of domestic production of coal and import from other countries. Although, India has reserves that can last up to one hundred years, coal production is inadequate leading to high dependence and expenditure on import of coal. Several states, including, Kerala, Punjab, and Maharashtra have reported forced shutdown of their thermal power plants owing to localised shortage of coal. Reportedly, a shortage of coal was also conveyed by Delhi to the Central government. The governments of these states and the Union Territory have issued advisories to severe power outages if the coal shortages are not addressed by the Centre. Ever since the economy started recovering after the pandemic in 2020, there has been an increase in demand in electricity across the country. A press release by the Government of India stated four reasons for sudden drop in coal production and availability: The release also stated that coal companies in a few states, namely, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, are faced with heavy dues and thus these states could witness coal shortage in the fiscal year 2021-22. Installed generation capacity  State governments which have reported shutdown of thermal power plants have attributing shortage of coal to power outages in their states. Drawing up from the current power crisis in China, such claims can be misleading for the general public. As per data from the Ministry of Power, nearly 61% power is sourced from thermal power plants which use fossil fuels as raw materials for power generation. These fossil fuels include coal, gas, diesel, and lignite. Fig.1. shows the share of coal in power generation in India. Fig.1. Power generation capacity in India. Source: Ministry of Power, India, August 2021. * Renewable sources are Hydro, Wind, and Solar energy Coal powered thermal plants account for nearly half of the total installed capacity for power generation in India, followed by new and renewable energy sources. Hence, a shortage of coal, as indicated by few states would not necessarily mean that there will be long, uninterrupted power outages as has been in the case of China. It is important to note here that Fig.1. represents the installed power generation capacity of different resources. The actual utilization of installed capacity varies depending on the availability of raw material and other environmental factors. Is production or shortage of coal a real threat to power availability? As per data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), the all India actual production and all India target production figures have been shown in Table 1. As of Oct 7th, 2021, the national production of power from thermal sources was met with a six percent deficit[4]. Table 1. Actuals vs Target production of electricity by different sources All India Target (Oct 7th) in MU Actuals (Oct 7th) in MU Surplus/Deficit Thermal 3,222.38 3,035.46 -6% Nuclear 124.41 138.78 12% Hydro 411.55 549.5 34% Renewable Energy Sources NA NA NA To address this deficit of the coal-fired power plants, a meeting was held under the aegis of the Ministry of Coal (comprising of representatives of Ministry of Power, CEA, Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Railways, and Coal India Limited) on Oct 9th, 2021, which affirmed that 2 – The global impact of increased coal prices and disrupted supply chains have led to coal shortages in many nations. However, attributing coal shortages to long power outages can be detrimental to economic growth of the country, industrial production, and recovery post-pandemic. India’s new and renewable energy sources have picked up massively in the last few years and it would be in best interest of states and the central government to mull over reducing coal dependency for power generation. (Prachi is a research consultant at Center for Integrated and Holistic Studies. Views expressed are author’s own.)

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Kashmiri Community in Fear and Insecurity

Decades ago, when terrorism engulfed the valley, Kashmiri Hindus, an indigenous ethnic-religious group in Kashmir-now a minority, were forced to leave their ancestral home. The growing Islamic extremism transformed rapidly into terrorism. Much of the weapons and trained terrorists poured in by neighbouring Islamic republic of Pakistan. They, along with other Kashmiri Muslims sympathisers called for murder, loot, rape, and abductions of native Kashmiri Hindus. Left with no choice but to save themselves, over 0.4 million Kashmiri Hindus migrated to different parts of the country. In such adversity and betrayal, Makhan Lal Bindroo, a Kashmiri Hindu pharmacist in Srinagar, chose to stay back and serve his homeland Kashmir. On Tuesday, however, he was paid for his service and trust by The Resistance Front (TRF). Terrorists of the Resistance Front (TRF) shot and murdered Makhan Lal Bindroo. TRF is a Lashkar-e-Taiba front organisation (LeT). LeT an international terrorist group designated by the United States and United nations which is backed and supported Pakistan. The trigger? He was a Hindu, a reminder of Kashmir’s indigenous non-Islamic history that the Islamists desperately want to erase. Seemingly inspired by the recent cleansing of Hindus and Sikhs in Afghanistan. TRF has began a gory repetition of the 90s massacre of Hindus in the valley. In sixteen days, eleven civilians, a majority of whom belong to the Hindu minority communities have been butchered in the Valley of Kashmir by Pakistan backed Islamic terrorists. In the recent spree of killings. Terrorists targeted Hindus, Sikhs and government employed muslims. In addition, non-locals workers a d wagers from the rest of the country, who have built and sustained Kashmir crisis after crisis were targeted. Evidence suggests that these organised killings are planned and organised by Pakistan backed terrorist groups, following the footprint of the 1990s genocide of Kashmiri Hindus. The revival of Kashmiriyat- Kashmir’s distinct pluralism- after recent sustainable development in Kashmir, has been a sore in the sight of Pakistan-sponsored Islamic terrorists in Kashmir. The roots of this planning lead to Pakistan as is evident from the series of events that replicate the 90s genocide. The day TRF’s Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed Bindroo, two others were also killed, a poor Dalit street food hawker, Virender Paswan who was killed within an hour of Bindroo’s shooting for being a harmless non-Kashmiri, and a Muslim resident that terrorists killed because of suspected links to security forces. All these people were killed for not adhering to the terrorist ideology against Hindus. In fact, it did not stop there. Three days later, terrorists murdered two educationists: Supinder Kour- the Kashmiri Sikh principal at a school in Srinagar and Deepak Chand- the Kashmiri Hindu teacher at the same school. The terrorists singled them out from the staff, ordered the Muslims to go out and shot those two. If this isn’t ethnic cleansing and genocide, then what is, ask the minority communities in Kashmir. The terrorist attacks and killings have launched the minority community in Kashmir into a hysteria of fear and insecurity. Many have fled their homes overnight, in a horrifying repeat of events of the late 1990s. After the last great exodus of the Kashmiri Hindus in 1999, there are barely any Hindus left in the valley, many of whom were those who returned after government’s efforts to resettle them back in their homes. However, clearly, nothing has changed for Hindus and other minorities of Kashmir and it likely won’t as long as Pakistan-sponsored terrorism continues in the valley. There is no doubt that a large part of this renewed genocide of Hindus in the valley also stems from the international aid that is given to Pakistan that it pumps back into its terrorist operations in Kashmir. While India scrambles to take control of security in Kashmir, international community can step up and support by immediately sanctioning Pakistan so that another irreversible genocide of a minority doesn’t happen on our watch.

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