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Bharat’s Civilizational Democratic System Has Evolved!

Methodological inaccuracies & biases adopted by V-Dem apart from experts enlisted to evaluate Bharat’s democratic credentials is questionable Pummy Pandita The encroachment of selective and biased methodologies into the arena of international rankings and surveys has raised serious questions about their integrity. Far from being an anomaly, this issue permeates a broad spectrum of indices. Among them, the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s eighth annual report on democracy, entitled “Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot.” Purportedly known for its deep dive into state of democratic governance around the globe, this report seeks to provide an exploration into complex dynamics of democracy in various nations, with India receiving particular emphasis. India, the world’s largest democracy, stands at the forefront of discussions on democratic health and vitality. The nation’s democratic journey is distinguished by its commitment to regular electoral engagement, a robust multiparty system and a steadfast embrace of diversity and pluralism. Yet, V-Dem’s labeling of India as “one of the worst autocratisers” casts a long shadow, provoking thorough scrutiny of the methodologies and criteria V-Dem employs. Such a characterization not only stirs discussion but demands a more nuanced understanding of the factors influencing these assessments. As observers and analysts scrutinize these rankings, the debate underscores need for transparency and rigour in evaluative methodologies employed by V-Dem and other indices around the world. Alarmingly, implications of such rankings extend far beyond mere numbers; they significantly influence a nation’s access to resources, financial implications, opportunities, and its global reputation. Consequently, when integrity of these methodologies is called into question, it can precipitate disagreements, escalate into diplomatic strains, or necessitate shifts in policy. Varieties of Democracy Institute, anchored at University of Gothenburg in Sweden, stands as the source behind V-DEM rankings. This report includes a suite of indices such as Liberal Democracy Index, Electoral Democracy Index, Liberal Component Index, Egalitarian Component Index, Participatory Component Index, and Deliberative Component Index, each contributing to a understanding of democratic health and governance globally.  The methodology and approach adopted by V-Dem Institute have raised considerable concerns particularly in their evaluation of India’s democratic credentials. A detailed scrutiny of indices and sub-indices utilised by V-Dem reveals a mixed picture: India scores well on objective measures such as the proportion of the population with voting rights and the percentage of direct popular votes. However, a noticeable decline is observed in areas heavily reliant on ‘expert opinion.’  V-Dem’s reliance on “innovative methods for aggregating expert judgments” to derive “valid and reliable estimates” for concepts that are inherently challenging to observe is a point of contention. The field of social science research is well-acquainted with the biases and limitations inherent to such methodologies. Despite this, V-Dem’s acknowledgment of potential biases in its operations appears cursory at best, quickly passing the buck to ‘experts’ and claiming to mitigate these biases through a so-called ‘measurement model’. This approach raises questions about the institute’s commitment to academic rigour, as it seems to prioritize self-promotion over methodological integrity. The transparency and accountability of V-Dem’s evaluation process are also under scrutiny. The institute reportedly relies on around roughly 25 “Country Experts” across five categories to assess each country, with the identities of most of these experts remaining concealed. This small group of experts is tasked with making judgments on the democratic status of nations, a stark contrast to the democratic ethos upon which countries like India are built. India, for its part, has established a democratic system that allows its citizens to shape their destiny through participatory elections, rather than deferring to the opinions of a select few.  Moreover, V-Dem’s approach to updating its methodologies and assumptions appears uninspiring. While it claims to regularly review its methods, actual adjustments are made only “occasionally.” Criticisms from countries in the Global South, which highlight the biases and ideological leanings inherent in V-Dem’s methodologies, have been persistent. These critiques often point out the alignment of such evaluations with the interests of influential figures and the lack of significant efforts by V-Dem to address or amend its flawed methods. This ongoing resistance highlights not only concerns about the transparency and accuracy of V-Dem’s methodology but also about the competence and intentions behind the reports it publishes. The portrayal of democratic performance in V-Dem’s reports also seems to echo a familiar narrative found in Western literature and analysis, where Western nations—primarily the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia—are consistently depicted as outperforming the rest of the world. This narrative perpetuates a simplistic and often misleading view of global democratic landscapes, further complicating the trust and validity of such assessments. The persistent reluctance of V-Dem to revisit and revise its evaluative processes suggests a deeper problem than mere methodological transparency. It hints at a fundamental disconnect between the institute’s proclaimed objectives and its operational ethos. This steadfast adherence to a disputed methodology, in the face of widespread critique, underscores a concerning lack of competence or, more troublingly, suggests potential ill-intentions behind the production of these reports. In conclusion, the approach of the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute towards evaluating global democracies, with a notable focus on India, underscores a deeply troubling confluence of methodological shortcomings and apparent biases. While V-Dem positions itself as a standard-bearer of academic integrity, leveraging innovative methods and expert judgments, its persistent neglect in addressing and amending the inherent biases within its methodologies significantly detracts from the trustworthiness of its evaluations. This steadfast stance not only erodes the credibility of its reports but also casts doubt on the objectivity and underlying motives of the institute. Particularly glaring is V-Dem’s indifference towards engaging with the sustained critiques from countries across the Global South, which points to a broader disregard for the multifaceted expressions of democratic governance beyond the Western paradigm. The institute’s assessments of India bring these issues into sharp relief, highlighting a potential bias and even anti-India sentiment that seems to overshadow the nation’s democratic achievements and complexities. India’s democratic journey, marked by its vast electoral processes, dynamic multiparty engagements, and commitment to pluralism, stands in stark

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Bharat, An Evolving, Chaotic but Vibrant Democracy

From being ‘gana rajyas’ to going high-tech in campaigns & voting, Bharat has covered huge space and willing to experiment with spiritual democracy Dr Aniruddh Subhedar Like people, nations too have a distinct nature, character and history of their own. Bharat is no exception to this and has its own uniqueness in all these three aspects. Studying Bharat diligently and objectively, one will find that ideal of democracy and freedom to choose leaders has been ingrained in her ethos since times immemorial. No doubt the modern democratic institutions of Bharat took their form after British colonization but roots of democracy in Bharat are as old as it gets. When Greece was enjoying its city states, in Bharat there were Gana-Rajyas. Ganas means the people making up a state and Gana-Rajya translates to “rule of people”. Scholars tell us that even before Gana-Rajyas, during evolution of Bharatiya civilization, in Vedic period we find existence of assemblies like Sabha, Samiti and Vidath, which used to administer people and whose leaders were elected by the people only. The Ganas were basically units as cohesive as families or clans. Later when monarchy became the norm in Bharat, it was not too far away from this basic ideal. The word ‘praja‘, which means people / subjects, literally translates to ‘offspring’ or children. In essence, Raja (King) was supposed to take care of his people as his own children. And, even during that era of monarchy, at the village level panchayats or village assemblies, usually made up of community elders, were thriving in Bharat; respected and accepted by the State. Therefore, transition to modern democratic political setup was not too hard for Bharatiyas. As soon as Bharat freed itself from colonial clutches, it made universal adult franchise one of the defining characteristics of its political system. In Letter & Practice In modern times, democratic ethics are too well entrenched in Bharat’s polity in letter and practice. Preamble of Bharat’s Constitution pledges to constitute the country into “a democratic republic”. Free and fair elections are bedrock on which this democratic systems stands upon. The Constitution ensures that there is a permanent and independent body- ‘Election Commission of India’ (ECI) which has the power to control and regulate elections to parliament, state legislatures, office of president and vice-president. Measures relating to elections are so stringent that once ‘Model Code of Conduct’ is implemented by the Election Commission, the government is prohibited from making any announcements or policy decisions that could potentially influence people’s voting choices. This means government cannot start any populist scheme and even government bodies cannot start any recruiting process. Provisions of Constitution are not a dead letter. In fact, it’s followed quite strictly. General elections in Bharat are not some run-of-the-mill affair; it is of gigantic proportions. General elections in 2024 Bharat will be the largest exercise ever in the world surpassing even the one held in 2019. Total 90 million people are eligible to vote in this election. It will be the longest-held general election in Bharat (except for the first general election of Independent Bharat in 1951-52) spanning over 44 days. One of the reasons Bharat’s democracy has endured test of time is the seriousness about voting rights and fair elections. Otherwise in Bharat’s neighbourhood there’s hardly a country which can pride itself as a true democracy. In fact, in Bharat’s west, it is hard to find a truly functioning democracy till one crosses the Middle-Eastern countries. Being one of the most populous and diverse countries in the world, Bharat plays a major role in ensuring that democracy and human rights are secure in South East Asia. Bharatiyas take their right to vote seriously and don’t like anyone meddling with it. The closest Bharat came to dictatorship was during 1975-77 emergency imposed by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. But what preceded and followed this 21-month stint with dictatorship is worth mentioning here. Among the other reasons, the immediate cause of Indira Gandhi implementing emergency was that the courts concluded that malpractices were used in her election and declared it as null and void. Indira Gandhi paid the price for imposing the Emergency when she and her party Congress were wiped out in elections post-emergency. Interestingly enough, she was re-elected by the people again and later her son Rajiv Gandhi won highest number of seats in Bharat’s political history owing to sympathy wave caused by Indira Gandhi’s assassination by Khalistani terrorists. It shows that Indira Gandhi always had a political stature but even Prime Minister of her standing wasn’t spared by Bharatiya people when she tried to curb their freedom. Credibility of Election Process Given the vast geographical area and size of the electorate, ECI has modernized the process by using Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for polling and counting votes for more than two decades. Making the process more credible and faster, EVMs were first used in 1980s, and they are used in general elections since 2004. In 2017 many Opposition parties like Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, Aam Admi Party harboured doubts on credibility of EVMs after they lost elections in some states. It was alleged that BJP is tempering with EVMs. The allegations went as bizarre as claiming that EVMs (a self-contained, stand-alone machine, lacking any networking capability) is being hacked via internet. A leader of AAP even brought a machine to the Delhi Assembly which looked like EVM and demonstrated how it could be hacked. All this hullabaloo was silenced when in May-June 2017 the ECI invited these parties and gave them the real EVM to prove that it could be hacked. Parties like AAP did not even participate in the challenge, while other two other parties, CPI (M) and NCP, who sent their representatives said that “they just came to understand how EVMs work”. Even without going into technical know-how the allegations against EVMs could be easily dismissed by looking at the fact that even in these 2017 elections, BJP lost in Punjab and Congress won. AAP won Punjab state

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China Spins Jingoistic Narrative

Bharat hits back on Chinese Communist Party’s false claims on Arunachal Pradesh. Global community including US recognize the dragon ploy. Rohan Giri There’s something innate in China that cannot change. It’s in its DNA to encroach on others. As part of its grand plan to usurp others land, properties and expand its hegemony, China and its ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) have tasted success in few areas while they eagerly look at grabbing neighbours’ territories. Tibet is one area where Chinese Communist Party has had large success in altering names of places, assert control on large swaps of land and change, culture, languages and life of ordinary citizens. Through coercion, China constructed certain structures to also advance on its border regions through coercive means. Similar attempts have been made with Bharat’s territories especially Arunachal Pradesh to assert its dominance in the region. Communist Party of China and its life time General Secretary Xi Jingping announced Chinese names to places in and around Arunachal Pradesh. Latest in the Chinese ploy of old and deceitful rhetoric is evidenced by statements made by People’s Liberation Army’s Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for Chinese Defense Ministry. By intention, he claimed that southern region of Xizang, the Chinese nomenclature for Tibet, was integral component of China’s territory.  This was obvious reference to Arunachal Pradesh which China thinks is its own territory. Chinese Defense Ministry raked up the bogey on Bharat’s north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh after Sela Tunnel was constructed to enhance civic and military connectivity and capabilities in the state. The latest overtures by China expose the Chinese Communist Party ploy to initially seize Tibet and subsequently move in on Arunachal Pradesh. Bharat along with 17 other countries, mostly neighbours, has experienced adverse consequences of persistently making unsubstantiated claims by Chinese Communist Party. Henry McMahon, then foreign secretary of Britain drew an 890-km border between Bharat and Tibet in 1914. Arunachal Pradesh was formerly referred to as North Eastern Frontier Agency before the establishment of the McMahon Line. On one side of McMahon, Tibet existed as an autonomous region while on the other Arunachal Pradesh was an Indian state. Chinese communist party falsely maintains that Tibet is one component of China and refuses to acknowledge this demarcation. China’s aspirations for territorial expansion had begun to gain momentum at this point. The act of manipulating maps to include some regions of Bharat has been observed since ancient times, hence its innate to its nature. Bogus claims of Chinese communists were undermined when Japanese forces launched an invasion of Arunachal Pradesh, north-eastern state of Bharat during Second World War. Additionally, emergence of Chinese expansionism posed an enormous threat to Bharat’s territorial integrity. During that period, the British-led Indian Army provided protection to Tawang of Arunachal Pradesh. Bharat has had consistently maintained a firm stance against China’s claims and Arunachal Pradesh residents have historically rejected  China’s expansionist aspirations and unsubstantiated assertions. Latest PLA statements on Arunachal Pradesh have come after Chinese Communist Party misleading names of 11 locations in Arunachal Pradesh. In addition to expressing their outrage, local populace actively engaged in peace marches on the roads, demonstrating their opposition to China. The protesting people were holding placards that read, “We stand by India” and “Arunachal is not part of China.” The posters in their possession had the message, “Don’t we know… How China is oppressing the people of Tibet and is always engaged in looting it? At any cost, we would not like the condition of Arunachal Pradesh to become like that of Tibet…” Individuals hailing from Arunachal Pradesh, holding tricolor flags, asserted that similar demonstration were held when China changed the names of six locations in 2017 and 15 locations in 2021. The misleading names were in the Chinese and Tibetan languages. In 2023, the controversy over stapled visas gained attention as Indian Wushu players were granted such visas by China. New Delhi-based think tank Center for Integrated and Holistic Studies, at that time, had reported that the “Stapled visas incident is seen more as one step further in China’s grand expansionist plan and communist vision to occupy others’ land disregarding international treaties, pacts and ‘gentlemen’ agreements to not change on-the-ground goal posts. Only way to put an end to this psycho-warfare like stapled visas is to firmly retake ‘Aksai Chin’ under its ‘illegal’ occupation since 1950s and held after the 1962 war.” Bharat and its government always said that Arunachal Pradesh was, is, and will remain integral to the country. China’s illegal expansionist strategy extended much beyond Arunachal Pradesh, Tibet, or Nepal. Countries and international communities need to be alert to such machinations and not succumb to mechanisms like debt trap, infrastructure development or other forms of avarice. (Author: Rohan Giri is a journalism graduate from Indian Institute of Mass Communication (IIMC) New Delhi, and Manager Operations at CIHS.)

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Drone Didis to Revolutionize Bharat’s Farm Sector

Bharat has moved with purpose in spread of drones to revolutionize her huge farm sector that’s key to self-sufficiency model, feed 1.4 billion people and provide agriculture products and services globally. Having adopted drones consciously over last one decade, these flying objects mark significant advancement in agricultural output and modernizing farming processes. This creative plan is a big step towards using modern technology to solve long-standing issues in the agriculture sector that’s integral to Bharat’s way of life. Conventional agricultural spraying techniques that rely on physical labour or heavy gear lifting are time-consuming and less accurate in providing farm nutrients, soil supplements and water apart from spray of pesticides etc. Indian government has adopted use of drones in agriculture and related services to transform crop management and protection in light of constraints associated with physical handling of farm nutrients and pesticides. Modern spraying technology is being used on drones to cover huge tracts of fields with previously unheard-of precision and speed. These unmanned aerial vehicles are gradually taking the place of the labour-intensive and ineffective hand spraying method. Capacity of drone sprayers to reach difficult-to-get locations such as steep terrain or heavily forested areas, which are difficult for traditional machinery or labour is one of its main advantages. These drones provide optimal resource utilization and minimize waste by accurately targeting crops with necessary nutrients, herbicides or insecticides. This promotes sustainable farming practices. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) outfitted with cutting-edge sensors and GPS technology can apply pesticides, herbicides, and fertilisers with unmatched precision and speed as well. Farmers can target particular portions of their fields with drone sprayers, minimizing resource waste and lessening environmental effect. Furthermore, farmers may concentrate on other key facets of agriculture because of the effectiveness of drone operations, which saves them a significant amount of labour and time. The drone sprayer plan has been widely praised for its potential to take Bharat’s agriculture to next level. Farmers that use this technique can increase crop yields, maximise resource usage and help improve their standard of living. Drone usage also supports India’s commitment to sustainable agriculture which lessens negative consequences of conventional farming methods while boosting eco-friendly solutions. Use of drone sprayers is expected to help millions of Indian farmers with a number of urgent problems. The advantages are numerous, ranging from lowering danger of chemical exposure for workers to minimizing environmental contamination brought on by overuse of pesticides. Furthermore, farmers benefit greatly from the increased efficiency that drones provide in terms of cost savings which eventually strengthens their financial security. Nonetheless, there are certain drawbacks to drone technology’s broad use in agriculture. Concerns including licensing processes, legal frameworks and cost must be addressed to guarantee easy integration and accessibility for farmers from a range of socioeconomic backgrounds. Policymakers, technology companies and other agricultural stakeholders must work together to tackle these challenges. The broad use of drone sprayers can be facilitated by cooperative projects that provide financial support, training and awareness-raising which could spark a paradigm shift in Indian agriculture. Most stakeholders in the farm sector will have to work in unison to adopt drones like other technologies. With the drone sprayer plan, Bharat is demonstrating its commitment to using innovations for sustainable development as it sets off on this revolutionary journey. In several other sectors as well, drones are being increasingly deployed to deliver pharmaceutical products and tackle life threatening emergency situations. India is positioned to usher in a new era of agricultural prosperity by embracing technology-driven solutions, empowering farmers, and promoting economic growth while protecting the environment for future generations. Drones for farm development Thanks to development of drone technology, India’s agriculture sector has undergone a spectacular revolution in recent years. These unmanned aerial vehicles are strong instruments that are changing how farmers manage their crops and nurture their land; they are not just futuristic gadgets. Drones have made a major contribution to Indian agriculture in the form of crop monitoring and management. Drones with cutting-edge cameras and sensors fly over huge stretches of farmland, taking high-resolution pictures that provide vital information on crop health, insect infestations, and soil conditions. With the use of this real-time data, farmers are better equipped to optimize their techniques for fertilization, irrigation, and pest management, which ultimately increases yields and minimises resource waste. Drone technology is also revolutionising farming techniques nationwide with precision agriculture. Drones optimise production by precisely directing inputs such as insecticides, fertilisers, and water, hence reducing waste and negative environmental effects. This accuracy is crucial for maintaining sustainable farming techniques for future generations in a nation where agricultural resources are becoming scarce. Drones are also excellent at large-scale mapping and surveying, giving farmers access to precise land-use surveys and maps. Better land management, crop selection and resource allocation are made possible by this capacity, which is especially important in India’s several agro-climatic zones where soil conditions vary greatly. Drones have advantages over traditional farming methods. Drones prove to be invaluable in hard-to-reach areas where conventional machinery is unable to operate. These flying marvels bridge the gap between farmers and their fields with their unprecedented efficiency and accessibility, whether they are monitoring crops or delivering necessary supplies. Drones are also essential for disaster management since they can quickly assess crop damage following natural disasters like floods or droughts. Drones minimize losses and aid recovery process by facilitating rapid response measures through the provision of precise and timely information. Overall, drone technology has the potential to revolutionize agriculture in Bharat by providing innovative solutions to challenges faced by farmers and enhancing efficiency and sustainability of agricultural practices.  However, coordinated efforts are required to guarantee affordability, accessibility and appropriate legal frameworks in order to fully reap its benefits. Drone technology has the potential to take Indian agriculture to new heights of wealth and sustainability if given the proper backing and funding. Drone Didis to helm farm reforms Under the ‘Namo Drone Didis’ scheme announced by Bharat’s government on November 30,  women in 15,000 self-help groups would be trained and

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India to turn third largest economy sooner!

Turmoil in UK, Germany & Japan, churn in US and China may not impact Bharat’s plans but global headwinds cannot be wished away K.A.Badarinath Three significant developments were reported in last couple days. All the three relating to economy are intrinsically linked and have long lasting impact globally. Japanese economy contracted for two consecutive quarters ending 2023 and reported recession. Embattled United Kingdom has also officially shifted into recession hit zone after last two quarters of 2023. This has had its immediate impact. Japan moved to fourth position in global economic sweepstakes while Germany moved up the rankings to third place. All these were prominently reported in last two days thereby leading to questions on Indian economy’s future as we head for another Lok Sabha elections in next two months. Firstly, United Kingdom moved from stagnation to recession after economic contraction of 0.1 per cent (July – September 2023) and 0.3 per cent (October – December 2023). Loss of appetite for goods and services leading to negative consumer sentiment and political slugfest between Tories and Labour ahead of this year’s elections contributed to the recession that Bank of England and analysts prefer to term as ‘technical’. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak however is gung-ho   about the prospects going forward. Secondly, the curious case of Japan needs significant explanation. Aging population, Negative growth in its numbers for nth year, scarcity of workers impacting output to Yen’s valuation vis-à-vis the US greenback have been identified as major factors. Japan’s economy shrank by 3.3 per cent (July – September 2023) and 0.4 per cent in October – December 2023. Yen depreciation has impacted valuations across the spectrum. During last one year or more, Yen has reported depreciation of 20 per cent against major currencies while its 30 per cent against US dollar. On October 20, 2022, Yen slipped to its worst levels at 150 as against US $. In the last one week, it has been hovering around 104.7 – 105 against the US dollar. Yen depreciation vis-à-vis US dollar is significant given that Japan imports big from United States both food and energy products. Thirdly, Germany moving in as third biggest economy at $ 4.55 trillion as against $ 4.19 trillion of Japan is significant for more than one reasons. While Yen’s continued depreciation played a big part in Japan’s GDP, Germany’s performance on economic front has been modest while dealing with its labour issues, human resources shortages and euro valuations. German economy has had contracted by 0.3 per cent in 2023 while analysts expect a modest positive growth of 0.3 per cent in 2024 followed by 1.2 per cent in 2025. Trade driven recovery may be expected in Germany. But, fingers are crossed given the demand slump internationally and production woes in Germany. There’s a fourth factor that’s discussed intermittently and rather in subdued voices. US, the largest economy, seems to have avoided recession in 2023 with a soft landing and there’s likelihood of slipping into contraction mode this year. Some do suggest that US economy was already on decline owing to high inflation, retail prices though officially there’s no word on it as of now. Fifth big factor is China that has gone through a lot in last several months over a year. Chinese economy, the second largest globally, may expand by 4.6 per cent in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025. Where does it leave the dragon economy in the Year of Dragon that foresees everything good? Protracted Covid related restrictions have subdued the Chinese economy under President Xi Jingping though officially the economy expanded 5.6 per cent in 2023. International Monetary Fund does not believe these figures and it has its own data points that estimate a much lower expansion. In this backdrop, what happens in India will be more than interesting to watch for both Indians and global populace looking for a straw of support in their struggle to counter the global downturn on economic front. With El Nino receding and monsoon forecast being very positive, India will continue to be the ‘brightest star’ with 6.5 – 7 per cent growth. Apart from being the fastest growing economy, India induced expansion is bound to keep the tide on positive side globally. However, global headwinds cannot be wished away. Russia and Ukraine war is not coming to an end any time now while the second bloody conflict between Hamas and Israel gets only worse. Shipping lines on international waters especially in the Red Sea are impacted thereby safe movement of vessels has been constricted. Also, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has established its own track record, worked independent of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank on the monetary policy issues. Continued strong domestic consumption, expansion in goods & services output coupled with healthy capital inflows – both domestic and foreign – will only keep the Indian economic wheel on even keel. In this backdrop, stable and strong political dispensation lends strength to argue that overtaking both Japan and Germany to become third largest economy globally by 2027 or a wee bit earlier is credible. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised within and outside Parliament that Bharat will be third largest economy in his third term with over $ 5 trillion valuation. Strong fundamentals and resilient economic order coupled with a reformer in Prime Minister Modi would help hasten the process. If global upturn happens in next few years as estimated by some economists, then India’s place under the Sun is assured sooner than later. (author is Director & Chief Executive with New Delhi based non-partisan think-tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Unique Art & Science That Awes!

Gone are the days of coalition politics where regional parties held the sway that led to protracted policy paralysis? It’s Prime Minister Modi’s leadership that stands out post-2014 Amritpal Kaur/New Delhi Prior to 2014, modus vivendi of Indian electoral politics centred in multiparty coalitions. No single party with all India presence had won a clear majority since 1989. There seemed to be a tacit agreement among political parties on respective regional and national electoral sphere with clear vote-banks and core cadre. India was said to be living in an era of ‘coalition politics’ with sway of regional parties to become ‘kingmakers’ in the national politics. On the one hand this led to increase in regional voices at national level and on the other, it led to what was touted as policy paralysis as then Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had to become a prisoner to coalition dharma. The chaos that coalition politics created for governance and central administration was acutely visible at policy implementation level. A number of promising policies were held hostage at the hands of regional political leadership which lacked specialization and orientation to fathom national interests beyond petty political gains. This intransigence turned into a nightmare as national parties failed to bring forth accepted leaders in whom people across regions could reposit their faith. This tricky transient situation changed with 2014 general elections. Prime Minister Modi rose on the national horizon with a clear mandate and secured comfortable majority, a feat that had almost became subject matter of electoral lore of a bygone era. This feat was achieved mainly due to a fundamental difference between Prime Minister Modi and his competitors i.e. the conviction and perception of Modi in the minds of people. He has successfully put forth the image of an efficient and honest administrator and a reformer with the concern for public at heart. What is refreshing about Prime Minister Modi is the fact that he exuberate confidence and reinstates it in general masses about India’s future. At policy level, a few commentators put Modi’s politics to the left of right wing on political spectrum. This was reached derived due to his unequivocal clarity on policy reforms. After all being said and done, what matters is development and reforms done on the ground that directly impacts people’s lives and is not just ‘business as usual’. Prime Minister Modi has been able to achieve it. What has helped him is the clear majority in both houses of Parliament. Pressure of ‘coalition dharma’ is not on his shoulders and it has allowed him to streamline governance, its aims and goals far more clearly. This phenomenon coupled with his track record as an administrator has enabled Prime Minister Modi to build his own political capital which has stood in good stead for him in consecutive general elections. There is no pied piper effect here but a genuine belief of majority Indians that given the variety of leaders in the present generation Prime Minister Modi is primus inter pares. The faith reposited in the present government is unprecedented, probably to be matched only by the premiership of Pt. Nehru or Smt Indira Gandhi. However, the crucial difference between Nehru and Modi is that Nehru rode on latent political capital of Indian National Congress that came fresh out of British colonial rule. On the contrary,  Modi had generated his political capital in part from his days as a ground level political activist and three-term tenure as chief Minister of Gujarat and partly on the account of the severe anti-incumbency effect for the previous regime. Last ten years have been watershed era for Indian administration as much as Indian politics that revolves around regional parties and national coalitions. The Government under Prime Minister Modi has brought in a number of long-pending reforms in different facets of Indian political economy with far reaching impact. Goods and Services tax (GST) is a good example of success of Prime Minister Modi’s regime. Though the work for the unified and harmonized pan Indian tax system was in the pipeline for over two decades, yet this revolutionary tax regime could not see light of the day simply because there was no clear majority for any one party or likeminded parties in the Centre. From modified value added tax to GST has been a long and arduous journey because it directly addressed the issue of fiscal federalism, the Centre and the states needed to work in tandem. The GST also entailed a complex interplay of rules at various levels of governance, which in a frank assessment was a Himalayan task for any government in best of the circumstances. That central government under Prime Minister Modi was able to achieve it, speaks volumes about its acumen to overcome policy paralysis, a quality essential to ensure overall development of the country. It is said that proof of the pudding is in eating and in many ways Indian economy is reaping benefits of the GST system. As the latest data shows, in December 2023, GST collection rose year-on-year by 12 per cent with record monthly collection of Rs 1.66 Lakh crore.  Initial modest projection of achieving Rs 100,000 crore monthly was surpassed big time. The data makes a couple of irrefutable claims. One, the initial hiccups in indirect taxes system in India is now over and we are looking at a well-oiled machine. Secondly, the country realized one nation one tax system. The unified economic structure will enable Indian economy to escape the systemic velocity of a diffused and myriad tax structure. Another outstanding feature of Indian economic reforms in last decade is introduction of JAM trinity which became the conduit of digitization of Indian economy. In six years, JAM trinity which includes Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar Card and Mobile phone has changed the contours of India’s retail economy in the context of money transactions. The feats that it achieved includes financial inclusion of various segments of population especially women who hold 260 million accounts under Jan Dhan Yojana

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France, Bharat’s Dependable Strategic European Ally

More than just a symbolic visit, French President Emmanuel Macron’s Republic Day visit to India as chief guest was significant. President Macron made a decisive step to fortify the strategic and deep affinity ties between France and India during his trip to Jaipur and New Delhi. President Macron’s visit was a turning point that demonstrated deepening diplomatic, economic, and cultural linkages between the two countries. Beyond the symbolic acts of solidarity that were observed during the Republic Day celebrations, the visit provided both countries with an opportunity to explore ways to improve cooperation in a range of fields, opening the door for a more robust and durable relationship. Enhancing Strategic Partnership: France and India have been actively working to strengthen their strategic alliance in a number of areas.  Historically, the two countries have cooperated in the fields of commerce, space exploration, defence, and cultural exchanges. In an extraordinary move, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has acquired all of the jet engine technology from French aerospace giant Safran that has greatly enhanced India’s capability for defence manufacture. Strengthening Defence Links: In order to increase domestic helicopter manufacturing and potentially open the door for future military cooperation, Indian private conglomerate Tatas has partnered with Airbus Helicopters to manufacture civilian helicopters in India. France and India work together on a number of defence initiatives and have a strong defence cooperation. One of the major turning points in their defence relationship was the purchase of the Rafale fighter plane. Space Cooperation: The French Space Agency (CNES) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) have worked together on a number of space projects. There has been cooperation in areas such as satellite technology, Earth observation, and space research. Economic and Trade Ties: Economic and trade relations between India and France have been growing steadily. Both nations have been looking for ways to increase their economic cooperation, including investing in fields like technology, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Nuclear Energy: France has been a key partner in India’s civil nuclear programme. India-France has signed agreements pertaining to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Cultural Exchanges: Cultural ties between India and France have been fostered through various initiatives including academic collaborations, language programmes and cultural events. International Issues: India and France frequently work together on international problems such as UN reforms, counterterrorism, and climate change. The two countries have a stake in upholding an international system based on laws. Educational and Cultural interaction: India actively participates in educational and cultural exchanges on a national and international scale because of its rich history, multiple cultures, and rapidly growing economy. By 2027, France hopes to have 30,000 Indian students enrolled in its universities, encouraging greater scholarly exchange and knowledge sharing. The coming year, i.e., 2025 will be proclaimed as the “India-France Year of Innovation,” exhibiting collaborative initiatives in cutting-edge fields including renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and space research. Educational Interaction: 1. Diversity in Education: India has an extensive selection of educational options, including modern schools, elite institutions, and traditional Gurukul systems. The educational landscape is a reflection of the fusion of contemporary knowledge and old wisdom. 2. International Cooperation: Indian educational establishments regularly participate in alliances and cooperative ventures with overseas colleges and establishments. This promotes a global learning environment by facilitating the exchange of faculty, students, and research. 3. Technology and Innovation: India is fast becoming as a hub for these two fields. Collaborations between international digital giants and academic institutions have resulted from the focus on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) disciplines. 4. Study Abroad Opportunities: A large number of Indian students travel overseas to seek higher education, which promotes information sharing throughout the world. India’s high standard of education and wide range of cultural experiences have made it a popular choice for overseas students as well. Cultural Interaction: 1. Cultural Diversity: India is renowned for its wide range of customs, languages, dances, music genres, and artistic expressions. Through partnerships, festivals, and cultural events, this diversity is exhibited on a worldwide scale. 2. International events: To foster appreciation and knowledge of other cultures, India actively takes part in and organises international cultural events. Cross-cultural exchanges take place on stages such as music festivals, art shows, and film festivals. 3. Cultural diplomacy: To strengthen relations with foreign countries, the Indian government practices cultural diplomacy. This entails promoting appreciation and understanding between people by presenting Indian literature, music, dance, and art around the world. 4. Tourism: Travellers from all over the world are drawn to India by its rich cultural legacy. The historical sites, temples, and celebrations offer a direct glimpse into India’s rich cultural heritage. Beyond the Headlines: India and France have maintained diplomatic relations for decades, and their ties extend beyond just political and economic aspects. By highlighting their common strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific area, both nations reiterated their commitment to maritime security and counterterrorism.  Talks also centered on expanding commerce and investment, especially in digital technology, sustainable solutions, and infrastructure development. 1. Strategic Partnership: India and France declared a “Strategic Partnership” in 1998, signifying the growing importance of their relationship. This partnership covers various sectors, including defense, security, and space cooperation. 2. Defence and Security Cooperation: Defence ties between India and France have strengthened significantly. The procurement of Rafale fighter jets from France by India is a notable example of defence cooperation. The Rafale deal, signed in 2016 and finalized in 2019, is one of the largest defence deals between the two countries. 3. Space Cooperation: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the French space agency CNES (Centre National d’Études Spatiales) have collaborated on various space missions. Both countries have shown interest in joint satellite launches and other space-related projects. 4. Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Beyond politics and economics, India and France have also promoted cultural exchanges. Educational ties have been strengthened through student exchange programs and collaborations between universities. 5. Economic Cooperation: Economic cooperation between India and France has grown steadily. Both countries have shown interest in enhancing trade and investment. France has been supportive of India’s

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Five big ideas to make Bharat a developed nation @2047!

K.A.Badarinath Niti Aayog in consultation with stakeholders has been readying a vision document for Bharat to evolve as a developed country in 25 years from now. This document is expected to be unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 90 days from now. Bharat celebrates 100-years as an independent nation in 2047 free from clutches of imperialistic British rule. By then, the country will have to implement a flawless plan to not fall into classic middle-income trap and emerge as a thriving developed economy. Given that independent consultancies and multi-lateral funding agencies foresee possibility of becoming a developed country, getting there seamlessly is what the government may have to work on. For this to happen, primacy must be on moderating rising cost of goods and services and at the same time sustain quality, quantity and price competitiveness for these items apart providing access to Bharat’s market. A national debate may have to be kicked off by Niti Aayog to get the strategy right instead of limiting their consultation to a powerful few that matter today. Fresh ideas and concepts need serious consideration to bolster moves to turn Bharat into third largest economy with US $ 30 trillion size overshadowing Germany and Japan by 2030. Here are the five big ideas that CIHS offers: Economy’s fourth pillar: Economic restructuring is something that needs to be undertaken urgently and expeditiously thereby preparing the ground for transformation into a developed country. For that to happen, fourth pillar of the economy needs to be built painstakingly. Grassroots businesses, cooperatives, producers’ organizations with direct linkages to consumers may have to don this role. Many of these consumers may also be business partners of these enterprises. Foreign, domestic, public sector investments apart from household savings and spending through annual budgets by states and centre may not suffice to trigger the transformative change that Bharat is aspiring for. Carving out at least 500,000 grassroots cooperatives in select sectors to provide goods and services, undertake exports and provide jobs may have to be scientifically designed. Bharat needs to be designed as the ‘largest participative economy’ that’s not constrained or limited by stock markets, portfolio investors, domestic savings or foreign funds. A large number of big, medium and small profitable enterprises in cooperative sector that are essentially rural will have to emerge and take the lead in next phase of economic expansion. Extending beyond possible 50 lakh street vendors, 66 lakh loans and a measly Rs 8600 crore is something that Bharat has to plan for at grassroots. From banking, insurance, pension funds to home grown low cost, home or family based enterprises run on the spirit of cooperation and sustainability is what Bharat may have to design. Recalibrating defunct or loss-making cooperatives by inducing professionalism and spirit of enterprises may be the starting point. Bharat’s government at centre, states and local bodies or district administration will have to collaborate to rejig the cooperatives and establish 500,000 new enterprises that are worth billions of dollars. Antyodaya: Reaching out to last individual standing in the line should form bulwark of the restructuring plan that takes Bharat to aspired third position in global economic pecking order. In the spirit of Antyodaya, broadening and deepening economic growth story to turn ‘all inclusive’ from spread of prosperity to providing services at lowest strata of village panchayats is something Bharat can work on. If message of ‘Bhagwan Ram’ can be taken to 500,000 villages to mobilize support for construction of a grand temple at Ayodhya on mission mode, there’s no reason why the ‘Antyodaya’ movement cannot methodically reach these far-flung places and people in seven years. Like Ram Lulla  signifies unification of a diverse Bharat’s society, Antyodaya should serve as unified economic emancipation and empowerment plan. Antyodaya cannot be limited to a ‘food scheme’, ‘skills development or a couple of projects in states or centre. An economic model that allows uplift of people at lowest strata in a protracted but sustained way needs to be rolled out by both central government and states in the spirit of ‘team Bharat’. For too long, there has been debate on ‘Antyodaya’ as the clinching factor in economic transformation, both in right wing and Left of centre political formations. Getting the model right is the key and implementing ‘Antyodaya’ taking each family as a unit to building clusters of self-ruled and sustained villages. This would translate to decentralization and democratization at lowest in the economic pyramid. 100 big Indian brands & companies: Can we take this economic change to a different level? In next seven years, can we build 100 known desi global brands for goods and services consumed in at least 25 countries each? Should we not chart a plan to build at least 100 large trans-national behemoths that account for about $ 10 trillion? Do our enterprises have the heft to get there and be there in the reckoning? Big question therefore is when do we build our own ‘Apple’ kind of a trillion dollar enterprises?  Let’s concede that unless wealth is produced, democratically spread and celebrated, this cannot happen. From banking, insurance, pension funds to iconic products and services can be ‘Made in India’ for the world, owned by Indians that showcase them with pride. Identify at least ten sectors in which the transformation that can be achieved by drawing up fool-proof plans. Here again democratization of these giant enterprises is what can be attempted with millions of stakeholders controlling the wealth. Strategic investment plans: Investments and businesses can be dovetailed to suit Bharat’s strategic futuristic plans. This involves careful assessment of Bharat’s interests, both offensive and defensive, to ride on the right horse. Chinese Communist Party has made strategic investments globally to suit President Xi Jingping’s aspiration of ruling the country for life time. In Bharat’s context, it cannot be individual centric but role the country would play internationally, both soft and strategic. Identifying a dozen areas with strategic interface and clear goal posts set for these enterprises may have to be readied

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Doves in Droves!

Indian debt market with foreign funds influx of US $ 30 billion after JP Morgan, Bloomberg indexation reflect confidence of global financial community K.A.Badarinath A quiet transformation that has gone less noticed in India is that of its debt market which is in for bigger overhaul. Strong growth story, reforms in debt market, decisive leadership of Narendra Modi government have created fresh opportunities for foreign investors in the nascent debt market with potential and promise. After over years of intense negotiations, Indian sovereign bonds will make it to Bloomberg and JP Morgan’s emerging markets index. Getting benchmarked on these two indices would lead to about $ 30 billion inflows into Indian debt paper that’s largely confined to government banks and financial institutions. US bank J P Morgan recently announced inclusion of 23 government bonds worth $ 330 billion on its emerging markets index. This will be staggered out over ten months beginning June 28, 2024 to March 2025. Close on the heels, Bloomberg Index Services has given firm hint that Indian bonds will be part of its indices globally. While Bloomberg reported discussions with its clients that are largely banks and investment companies, JP Morgan has more or less completed this exercise. As per reports, large investors in government debt internationally expected Bloomberg to include India bonds in first quarter of next fiscal in India beginning April 1, 2024. Inclusion of Indian treasury issued  rupee denominated bonds under fully accessible route (FAR) are part of JP Morgan and Bloomberg indices would lead to large global investors taking big exposure in Bharat’s paper. Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Bharat’s central bank in consultation with Indian government had opened a new channel named, Fully accessible route (FAR), through which non-resident investors were permitted to invest in specified Indian securities without caps. This foreign investors’ window was formally opened in 2020. In the indexation of JP Morgan and Bloomberg, Indian bonds are set to get maximum weightage of 10 points globally and 8.7 points in emerging markets indices. India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is right on track when she says that stability, policy consistency and reforms has made Bharat’s famed growth story all the more robust and sustainable. With emergence of India as a strong manufacturing hub for top companies like Apple, Nokia, Boeing, Samsung and Amazon, equity markets turned ebullient with fresh equities investments moving away from China. A similar situation is getting unravelled in debt market with investors shifting away from China that’s struggling to keep its growth estimates in short and medium term positive and healthy given hiccups in the post-Covid 19 recovery. In contrast, India is expected to log fastest growth next two years with 6.1 per cent in 2023 as per International Monetary Fund. This weighs against US’s 1.8 per cent and global aggregate of 3 per cent. China losing steam, Russia taken out of the indices following Ukraine war and healthy economic growth in India has egged foreign investment firms, rating agencies and large banks to look at Bharat’s debt paper eagerly. Finance Minister Sitharaman may have been a wee bit conservative when she projected inflows of US $ 23 billion after inclusion of Indian debt paper on JP Morgan Bond Index. Goldman Sachs, the prominent US investment bank and services company, has however projected $ 30 billion in 2023-24 when top investors rebalance their exposure internationally. Chinese debt paper was in demand way back in 2019. Of late, Chinese paper has begun to lose support given its shaky economic fundamentals that may translate into larger interest in Indian debt market. Hitherto, treasury debt paper was largely restricted to government owned banks and financial institutions while a very small chunk was available for retail investors and mutual funds. Foreign investors seem to be factoring huge infrastructure investment plans rolled out by Narendra Modi government. And, second factor that may propel rebalancing their exposure is outcome of legislative assembly elections in five states followed by Parliament polls before June 2024. Projected manifold increase in foreign funds flow into India debt paper goes well with ‘on the ascent’ narrative of Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP and its allies that have begun a spirited campaign ahead of states and federal elections. No doubt that RBI and Indian government are experimenting big by enabling foreign investors to take large exposure in Indian paper. This may eventually translate into RBI losing some flexibility in money policy formulation and shifting to market-led dynamics. One cannot ignore the contrarian view as well. Foreign investors taking exposure worth US $ 25 – 30 billion in government stock of over Rs 100 lakh crore or US $ 1.2 trillion is too little and too late. If one were to factor fresh borrowing of Rs 1.65 lakh crore each year, these inflows would add depth to the Indian debt market without having material impact on monetary policy formulation in near future. Unanimous view however is the robustness, inclusiveness and sustainability of India’s growth story built on strong economic fundamentals. Financial community’s confidence in Indian story reaffirms that doves are back in droves. (author is Director & Chief Executive at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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