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Economy Education Hindus Leadership Policy
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Wins Hearts, Pitches for Prosperity in Kashmir

Kashmir people resoundingly dismissed notions of a divided stance; unequivocal support for Modi’s vision of a ‘Naya Kashmir’. Rahul Pawa During his maiden visit to Srinagar after having ended an era of discrimination by landmark amendment of Article 370, Prime Minister Narendra Modi encountered a reception that left critics and skeptics astounded. Anticipation for his visit had been building for several days with throngs of Kashmiris flocking to Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir. Driven by a desire to glimpse Modi, a leader whose popularity has surged across what was once known as a turbulent state. This fervent public display signifies a pivotal shift in socio-political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. It marks beginning of a period that could redefine its history ushering in significant changes and reimagining Jammu and Kashmir’s future. This visit not only punctuates Modi’s magnetic appeal with people of Jammu and Kashmir but also signals potential evolution of a territory poised to embark on path to peace and prosperity. At today’s ‘Viksit Bharat Viksit Jammu Kashmir’ programme in Srinagar, people of Kashmir resoundingly dismissed any notion of a divided stance on Jammu and Kashmir sending a clear message to global community their unequivocal support for Modi’s vision of a ‘Naya Kashmir.’ In the event at Srinagar’s Bakshi Stadium, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha extended warm welcome to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was  cheered by thousands of followers and supporters joining online from all districts of Union Territory and around the world. Modi, engaging in dialogue with Viksit Bharat beneficiaries from several J&K districts including Shopian, Jammu, Kupwara, Srinagar, Ganderbal, Bandipura, Kathua, and Kishtwar, showcased inclusive reach of the initiative. Amid scenic backdrop of Bakshi Stadium, Modi then unveiled an ambitious slate of 53 projects, cumulatively valued at Rs 64 billion. These ventures go beyond just infrastructure projects; they are beacons of hope and engines of progress for Jammu and Kashmir. PM emphasised the transformative impact these projects are poised to have on the UT’s development trajectory. Modi’s visit was not only about projects, it was genuine urge to outreach to Kashmiris whom he addressed as his parivar or larger family. Echoing sentiments of Syama Prasad Mukherjee whose sacrifices laid the groundwork for this new vision of Jammu and Kashmir, Modi reiterated the symbiotic relationship between development in the valley and broader pillar of India’s progress. Modi also empathized on evolving travel trade making Srinagar, as a focal point in India’s burgeoning tourism industry pivotal to Bharat’s development story by launching ‘Dekho Apna Desh People’s Choice Tourist Destination Poll’ and  ‘Chalo India Global Diaspora’ campaign. Reflecting on his visits post-2014, Modi shared, “Whenever I came here after 2014, I have always said that I am making all these efforts to win your hearts and I am seeing that I have been able to win your hearts. I will keep trying hard. This is Modi’s guarantee…” It was a moment of reassurance, emphasise his commitment to winning over people of Jammu and Kashmir through sincere efforts and dedication. Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t shy away from addressing the political landscape taking aim at Congress party and its allies, along with regional opposition parties for misleading people regarding Article 370. Striking a stern note, Modi highlighted how Article 370 had disproportionately benefited certain families in the Valley challenging the earlier prevailing narratives surrounding its amendment. Furthermore, PM announced the Valmiki community now qualifies for Scheduled Caste (SC) benefits with the Vidhan Sabha reserving seats specifically for SCs. Additionally, the Pattari tribes, Pahadi groups, Gadda Brahmin and Koli communities have been newly included in the ST list. Modi turned the spotlight on tangible progress emphasizing historic milestone of railways reaching the Kashmir Valley. This infrastructure development is not just about laying tracks; it symbolizes connectivity, economic growth and prosperity for the region. In a moment of optimism, Modi expressed his unwavering faith in the youth of Jammu and Kashmir. Their potential, he asserted, is the bedrock upon which the future prosperity and vitality of the region will be built.   In a striking demonstration of political acumen and visionary leadership, PM Modi’s first visit to Srinagar has marked a turning point for J&K, signaling radical departure from its tumultuous past. The overwhelming reception that he got reflects a watershed moment in the region’s history, illuminating a collective desire among the people of J&K to embark on a journey of peace, prosperity and closer integration with the country’s developmental story. Modi’s initiatives, skillfully intertwining development agenda with efforts to connect on a personal level, have laid the foundation for a comprehensive socio-economic revival. Modi’s ability to draw unprecedented crowds in a region once beset by strife speaks volumes about his popularity and the shifting sentiments among its people. By directly addressing longstanding grievances and proposing a vision of progress and inclusivity, Modi has not only reinforced his political dominance but charted a bold path towards the realisation of a ‘Naya Kashmir’. This journey, underpinned by aspirations for stability and growth, could redefine the future of Jammu and Kashmir, setting a precedent for inclusive and development-driven governance. (Author is Research Director at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Sudies)

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Human Rights Policy Security
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‘Army Out’ Mandate By The Pakistani People

The adage, ‘Pakistan Army is the only army in the world that has never won a war but has never lost an election’ seems poised to manifest yet again. Yet the people’s mandate is unequivocally clear: Army Out. Rahul Pawa Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its political history, marked by rapid developments and significant electoral ambivalence. On February 8, the country held elections for its 16th National Assembly amidst large-scale allegations of pre-poll rigging and widespread electoral fraud. Despite these challenges, independent candidates backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), founded by Imran Khan, emerged as the leading force, securing nearly 33 million votes despite its jailed founder facing corruption convictions and an ten year ban on holding public office. As the elections unfolded in Pakistan, PTI-backed candidates faced severe repression of political activities, criminalisation of affiliations with PTI, systemic hindrances, and efforts to sideline the party. Nonetheless, it secured 101 seats in the 266-member national legislature and more than 85 percent of the seats in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, signalling a clear, long held mandate against the Pakistan Army’s involvement in politics. However, the adage “The Pakistan Army is the only army in the world that has never won a war but has never lost an election” seems poised to manifest yet again. Despite trailing in the electoral polls, the Pakistan Army-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), founded by Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and currently led by his grandson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, are well on their way to forming the governing coalition, deepening the challenges for Pakistan’s 241 million people more than ever before. Recent elections in Pakistan have created a stir shaping broader discussion on democracy, governance, and the role of the military in the political sphere. The PML-N—PPP coalition being formulated in the wake of a hung Parliament, highlights the overbearing influence of the Pakistan Army in  in political affairs. The revelation by Rawalpindi Commissioner Liaquat Ali Chattha, asserting the manipulation of election results to favour certain candidates, is not merely an indictment of the electoral process but a clarion call for introspection and reform within Pakistan’s political and judicial systems. The resignation of Commissioner Chattha, coupled with his allegations implicating high-ranking officials in the electoral fraud, paints a grim picture of the challenges facing Pakistani democracy. This apprehension furthered by Pakistan’s Supreme Court’s, as it deliberates on a petition for the annulment of the elections and the court’s decision to proceed with the case, even after the withdrawal of the petition, underscores the gravity of the situation and the imperative for judicial independence and political transparency. Internationally, the response to Pakistan’s electoral controversy has been significant, with lawmakers from the United States expressing concern over the allegations of interference and fraud. The bipartisan calls for investigation into these allegations, along with statements from the US State Department, reflect global implications of Pakistan’s political crisis. Pre-election remarks made by Ajay Bisaria, the Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan, inject an additional layer of regional concern and scrutiny over the electoral process in Pakistan. His assertion that elections were more akin to a “selection than an election,” with pre-election engineering by Pakistan army to install a preferred government, underscores the apprehension regarding the integrity of Pakistan’s democracy and the pervasive influence of its military in political matters. This critique from a senators and a seasoned diplomat not only reinforces the global and regional voices of dissent and calls for reform but also amplifies the international call for a transparent, free, and fair electoral process in Pakistan is in benefit of the global peace and stability. This recent electoral turmoil in Pakistan transcends mere domestic concerns. It highlights a growing opposition to the long-standing and deep-seated interference of the military in politics, reflecting a worldwide demand for governance that genuinely aligns with the aspirations of the Pakistani people. The establishment of a coalition government, despite PTI’s substantial seat victories, along with global concerns about electoral integrity, marks a significant shift in the consciousness of the Pakistani populace. This shift is towards a mindset that values the nation’s true needs—transparency, accountability, and democratic governance—above the traditional dominance of military power. This movement represents the most forceful ‘Army Out’ sentiment witnessed since the creation of Pakistan following the partition of Earstwhile British India. At this pivotal moment, Pakistan’s choice will not only carve its democratic path but also shape its international persona and influence. The nation is caught between a fervent call for democracy, unencumbered by military influence, and the entrenched power of the Army within its political sphere. This clash presents a formidable obstacle to progress in democracy, diplomacy, and development, spotlighting the military’s indisputable impact on governance. Pakistan’s journey ahead is fraught with complexity, demanding a steadfast commitment to forging a genuinely democratic governance structure. The imperative for Pakistan is clear: to bridge the chasm between current realities and the democratic ideals of its citizens, paving the way for a future where governance reflects the true will of the people. (Author is Research Director at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

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Geopolitics Policy World
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India to turn third largest economy sooner!

Turmoil in UK, Germany & Japan, churn in US and China may not impact Bharat’s plans but global headwinds cannot be wished away K.A.Badarinath Three significant developments were reported in last couple days. All the three relating to economy are intrinsically linked and have long lasting impact globally. Japanese economy contracted for two consecutive quarters ending 2023 and reported recession. Embattled United Kingdom has also officially shifted into recession hit zone after last two quarters of 2023. This has had its immediate impact. Japan moved to fourth position in global economic sweepstakes while Germany moved up the rankings to third place. All these were prominently reported in last two days thereby leading to questions on Indian economy’s future as we head for another Lok Sabha elections in next two months. Firstly, United Kingdom moved from stagnation to recession after economic contraction of 0.1 per cent (July – September 2023) and 0.3 per cent (October – December 2023). Loss of appetite for goods and services leading to negative consumer sentiment and political slugfest between Tories and Labour ahead of this year’s elections contributed to the recession that Bank of England and analysts prefer to term as ‘technical’. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak however is gung-ho   about the prospects going forward. Secondly, the curious case of Japan needs significant explanation. Aging population, Negative growth in its numbers for nth year, scarcity of workers impacting output to Yen’s valuation vis-à-vis the US greenback have been identified as major factors. Japan’s economy shrank by 3.3 per cent (July – September 2023) and 0.4 per cent in October – December 2023. Yen depreciation has impacted valuations across the spectrum. During last one year or more, Yen has reported depreciation of 20 per cent against major currencies while its 30 per cent against US dollar. On October 20, 2022, Yen slipped to its worst levels at 150 as against US $. In the last one week, it has been hovering around 104.7 – 105 against the US dollar. Yen depreciation vis-à-vis US dollar is significant given that Japan imports big from United States both food and energy products. Thirdly, Germany moving in as third biggest economy at $ 4.55 trillion as against $ 4.19 trillion of Japan is significant for more than one reasons. While Yen’s continued depreciation played a big part in Japan’s GDP, Germany’s performance on economic front has been modest while dealing with its labour issues, human resources shortages and euro valuations. German economy has had contracted by 0.3 per cent in 2023 while analysts expect a modest positive growth of 0.3 per cent in 2024 followed by 1.2 per cent in 2025. Trade driven recovery may be expected in Germany. But, fingers are crossed given the demand slump internationally and production woes in Germany. There’s a fourth factor that’s discussed intermittently and rather in subdued voices. US, the largest economy, seems to have avoided recession in 2023 with a soft landing and there’s likelihood of slipping into contraction mode this year. Some do suggest that US economy was already on decline owing to high inflation, retail prices though officially there’s no word on it as of now. Fifth big factor is China that has gone through a lot in last several months over a year. Chinese economy, the second largest globally, may expand by 4.6 per cent in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025. Where does it leave the dragon economy in the Year of Dragon that foresees everything good? Protracted Covid related restrictions have subdued the Chinese economy under President Xi Jingping though officially the economy expanded 5.6 per cent in 2023. International Monetary Fund does not believe these figures and it has its own data points that estimate a much lower expansion. In this backdrop, what happens in India will be more than interesting to watch for both Indians and global populace looking for a straw of support in their struggle to counter the global downturn on economic front. With El Nino receding and monsoon forecast being very positive, India will continue to be the ‘brightest star’ with 6.5 – 7 per cent growth. Apart from being the fastest growing economy, India induced expansion is bound to keep the tide on positive side globally. However, global headwinds cannot be wished away. Russia and Ukraine war is not coming to an end any time now while the second bloody conflict between Hamas and Israel gets only worse. Shipping lines on international waters especially in the Red Sea are impacted thereby safe movement of vessels has been constricted. Also, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has established its own track record, worked independent of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank on the monetary policy issues. Continued strong domestic consumption, expansion in goods & services output coupled with healthy capital inflows – both domestic and foreign – will only keep the Indian economic wheel on even keel. In this backdrop, stable and strong political dispensation lends strength to argue that overtaking both Japan and Germany to become third largest economy globally by 2027 or a wee bit earlier is credible. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised within and outside Parliament that Bharat will be third largest economy in his third term with over $ 5 trillion valuation. Strong fundamentals and resilient economic order coupled with a reformer in Prime Minister Modi would help hasten the process. If global upturn happens in next few years as estimated by some economists, then India’s place under the Sun is assured sooner than later. (author is Director & Chief Executive with New Delhi based non-partisan think-tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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