CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Gone with the wind: The Curious Case of Foreign Minister Wang Yi

Amrit Pal Kaur / New Delhi Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on a diplomatic visit to South Asia from 21st March to 27th March 2022. His visit to the region is significant for many reasons, including but not limited to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. As the trip advanced, it became clearer that the State Counsellor was trying to drum up support for the Chinese position on the ongoing crisis and that China saw it as an opening to push forward its diplomatic agenda, which has been stalemated since the Galwan Valley days. That State Counsellor Wang Yi would talk in warm tones to his Pakistani audience was expected, but he would subscribe to the resolution of the Organisation of the Islamic Cooperation, which included remarks on India’s domestic policies and issues, right before coming to New Delhi, defies all reasons. His discussions with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar came to a nought, and his request for an audience with Prime Minister Modi was declined were some of the signs of how his impromptu escapade to New Delhi ended. His visit to New Delhi was being speculated, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry kept the details shrouded. However, the bigger question is why China felt the need to send the State Counsellor to India, given the relations between the two countries in recent history? Part of the answer lies in India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. India has asked both sides to keep the diplomatic channels open and resist the violent path to resolve the issue. India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Tirumurti has abstained from voting on the resolutions in UNSC on the Ukraine crisis, coming from either side, keeping its diplomatic options open while walking on a tight rope. It can be speculated that China sees India’s autonomous diplomacy as a favourable opening stance to its position, especially since the Chinese have been increasingly facing the music on account of their support to Russia. Gaining India’s support would have been significant. However, India’s position is far more nuanced than what is meeting the eye. To begin with, the Indo-Russia relationship is indeed based on strategic cooperation, which goes back many decades. Russia is India’s largest armament partner, covering over 60% of its ammunition inventory. It is an essential consideration for India, especially considering the less than cordial environment on Indian borders. Indo-Soviet bonhomie of the cold war days is also frequently cited to be the high-water mark of the relationship, but the lesser-known fact is that Indira Gandhi did not agree to sign the Peace and Friendship Treaty for nearly two years, and it came into being against the backdrop of Pakistani aggression and refugee crisis in 1970-71. In order to hedge and balance its interest in the fast-evolving geo-strategic conditions in South Asia, non-aligned India signed the Treaty with the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, the treaty is not the only reason, and critical geostrategic concerns and calculations inform the Indian stance. Historically, as a major Eurasian country, Russia has always had a bearing on Indian foreign policy since the colonial era. Central Asia and Afghanistan were seen as the buffer between the Russian Empire and British India. In order to protect its Indian territory, British Raj always tried to keep Russian expansion towards the south in check. The Anglo-Afghan Wars of the 19th century were essentially fought with this purpose. Also, the north-western region has been a sensitive zone because in its history, most attacks on India happened from the northwest, where the famous ‘passes’ in the Himalayan ranges would allow the attacking armies to come through. As a powerful territorial empire in the north, Russia has held strategic significance for India. Its influence on Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan has been an essential consideration in the Indian foreign policy calculations as these countries are critical strategic partners. In order to maintain peaceful relations in the neighbourhood and keep harmony in the larger Asian context, Russia has its niche in Indian geo-strategy.  Another reason for the cautious Indian stance on Russia is, of course, the Dragon and its South Asian partner. Since the Crimea war of 2014, as the western pressure on President Putin increased, Russia has been walking into the Chinese orbit. For India, Russian decision making influenced by any third country is a possibility rife with pitfalls. Indo-Chinese relations have been sub-par for some time, and getting its strategic partner close to China is undesirable. What India would seek from Russia is support for its position in case if Galwan Valley like situation repeats. Assertive and revisionist China has been a cause of concern for the Asian region. The South China Sea disputes, East China Sea dispute, the Galwan Valley, and the Doklam dispute have piqued the world. Given these circumstances, countries like India have their concerns concerning geo-political issues. In this context, when President Biden calls Indian stance on Ukraine’ Shaky’ and the number of world leaders come to India in the guise of ‘bilateral relations, it cuts a rather curious picture as to why these dignitaries, including State Councillor Wang Yi, are making their way to New Delhi. First, about State Councillor Wang Yi’s visit, it can be derived that Indian reticence to criticize Russia outrightly on the Ukraine issue is seen as an essential toe-hold to persuade India to join China in supporting President Putin. Secondly, China is hosting this year’s BRICS summit and whether India decides to join or does not join will leave a significant impression on the leadership of President Xi especially keeping in mind the impending once in a decade leadership change in China which President Xi, in all probability, seeks to reverse. It will also send a message to the world about China’s rising power. Finally, in the context of the ripples created by the QUAD grouping in recent years, this BRICS summit will, in all prospects, seek to re-establish itself as a potent global force. For

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Winter Olympics: China heading for isolation

Communist Party of China and President Xi’s track record of human rights violations and unabated expansionism have riled the world Amritpal Kaur / New Delhi Winter Olympics and Paralympics this year being held in China beginning next week were to be showcased as President Xi Jingping’s acumen and dexterity with which he engaged the world. If reports were anything to go by, it’s not working for President Xi Jingping and his Communist Party of China that’s burning midnight oil to prevent the country’s total isolation in the international community. First came the political and diplomatic boycott of Chinese winter Olympics by the world powers to send out a strong message against well documented human rights violations of Uighur muslim minorities. Though most countries may still send in their sporting contingents, their officials will skip to protest against abuse and genocide unleashed against Uighurs. Going back to its origin in 1896, Olympics have been touted as the bridge to mitigate differences among countries and forging a bond of friendship. On the contrary, Winter Olympics 2022 being held at Beijing have walked into a grave shadow of all round acrimony due to China’s arbitrary actions with a number of Southeast Asian neighbours’ boycotting the games. Looming threat of Omicron variant of COVID-19 and massive internet crackdown by the powerful regulator in China has also not gone well with sporting nations. Since the last decade, Chinese growth story has translated into its assertiveness and obsession for blanket security theology. Its resurgence has made China more vocal treading on the verge of covert violence. One dimension of such an upturn has been China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours like USSR and Myanmar but with varying outcomes that range between amicable solution and outright arm twisting. However, amicable solutions have been scarce and far in between.  In fact, the last amicable resolution of border dispute that China achieved was in 2011 with Tajikistan. On the contrary, the past decade shows a marked change in the Chinese modus operandi in dealing with such disputes. Since 2009 Beijing has been claiming unilaterally South China Sea its territorial waters by pushing forward Nine-dash Line which demarcates the whole of the water body as its territory. South China Sea has been a central to territorial dispute between China and its South East Asian neighbours. And, this got accentuated beginning 2013 when China started developing Spratley Island and Paracel Island region. The Chinese state has been claiming ownership of most uninhabited islands in South China Sea Zone at a fast pace. These Islands include Cuarton Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Johnson South Reef, Mischief Reef, Subi Reef. Though Vietnam had been reclaiming some islands, what set the alarm bells ringing was the urgency with which Chinese started to develop these shoals. During 2014-16, China reclaimed more islands and territories than all other nations combined in the region’s history. Graver aspect of this Chinese belligerence is militarizing these islands. South China Sea is a narrow body which is also strategic as an important marine route that accounts for substantial world trade at over $ 3 trillion annually. Chinese attempt to capture scattered islands and fortifying them as its military zones has unnerved several of its friends and foes alike. Discreet reclamation of territories led to coining of term, ‘Salami Slicing’, that denotes Chinese attempt to expand its territory, one shoal at a time. Chinese expansionism has been in full display in its tussle with its India. Though settlement of Himalayan border issue has been an elusive phenomenon, over a period India and China had developed a mechanism to keep bilateral relations cordial while taking a piecemeal approach to disputed territory. Passage of Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (1993) during the Narasimha Rao era is a case in point. Subsequently, technical agreements to manage the border issues were adopted after tough negotiations in 1996, 2005, 2012 and 2013. However, recent skirmishes in the high Himalayas including Galwan crisis, Pangong Tso tussle, Depsang Plain offensive in 2020 is a worrying signal. According to experts, China is engaged in salami slicing of Himalayan border by taking one post at a time. It has also been speculated that China is keeping the Himalayan fault lines simmering to hem India and gain simultaneous advantage in the Indian Ocean as an emerging blue water navy. This expansionist posture, mastering the seas around and major sea lanes of communication, it’s a crucial move in the strategic chess that China continues to play. Chinese arm twisting and expansionism is visible in the recently enacted Land Border Act (2021). On the face of it, the act charts the course that China is to adopt in the border determining process. It states that territorial sovereignty is inviolable and China would ‘resolutely defend territorial sovereignty and land border security.’ But, the trouble with this assertion is that only India and Bhutan do not have a settled border with China. Further, China’s ‘official map’ unilaterally claims entire Arunachal Pradesh, Barahoti plains of Uttarakhand and territory till 1959 claim line in the Ladakh region as its own land mass. The act of China declaring complete ownership of rivers running through its territory setting aside claims of lower riparian states had led to more disputes with neighbours. As far as India is concerned, its recently adopted Land Border Act has no validity since it has no veracity or solid ground. China seems to be waging a psychological offensive against its neighbors, through posturing, unilaterally declaration of unacceptable claims on disputed territories as well as constantly shifting goal posts.  Since the Sixth Plenary Session of Communist Party of China in November 2021, it has been obvious that President Xi would continue into his third term as Chinese President. He has already put himself in the list of great leaders of China next only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping with his thought enshrined in the Chinese Constitution. Winter Olympics for him could have been a virtual crowing, a cherry on top of

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