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A Resolute Goal

Reform, transform and perform is the mantra that will fuel India’s grand standing as a developed nation by 2047 Rohan Giri India’s Independence Day holds immense significance as it commemorates the nation’s liberation from British colonial rule while embodying its journey to realize 1.4 billion people’s dreams. Prime Minister Narendra Modi address on this special day unveiled a plan to put India on high growth trajectory. Modi painted a compelling portrait on India’s future drawing inspiration from her classical civilizational roots. He set a resolute goal for India to attain developed nation status by 2047. On 77-th Independence Day, Prime Minister began his address by referring to the turmoil and violence in Manipur and its impending resolution. He emphatically stated, “The country stands with the people of Manipur… Resolution is possible only through peace. The Centre and the state government are making all efforts to find a solution, and will continue to do so.” While the state was limping back to normalcy, a lot more needs to be done for making Manipur home to diverse tribes living in harmony moving away from conflict, violence, women’s abuse, pain and suffering of various tribes. Narendra Modi moved on to point the pivotal significance of undertaking economic reforms to fortify India’s global standing. As evident, India’s economy, valued at a staggering $3.5 trillion surpassed that of United Kingdom last year securing its place as fifth-largest in the world. With unwavering conviction, he declared India’s resolute trajectory to ascend into the elite club of top three global economies in next five years. Prime Minister heralded a noteworthy accomplishment – uplifting over 130 million individuals from strangle hold of poverty. He emphasized that India’s burgeoning prosperity serves as a compelling opportunity not only for the nation itself but for entire global community. Modi’s persistent emphasis on these aspects underscores his unequivocal dedication to harnessing India’s demographic dividend and steering it to transform into an economic powerhouse. India is swiftly advancing on development path, garnering significant global recognition for its burgeoning expansion. Modi as Prime Minister, it is both commendable and imperative to nurture aspirations for a resplendent future. Contemplating the trajectory of India’s future, Modi affirmed, “I am confident that in 2047 when India marks 100 years of its Independence, it will be a developed nation. I say this on the basis of the capability of my country and available resources…” Realizing the vision for a fully developed nation demands collective effort necessitating certain sacrifices from each citizen. Prime Minister emphasized, “We have to fight three things now — corruption, family rule, and appeasement. These create impediments to people’s aspirations while corruption has badly affected India’s capability. Modi has rightly targeted fighting against corruption as a key area. While politics of appeasement has inflicted most harm on social justice, the country has to resolve not to tolerate corruption in any form. Global arena not only acknowledges ingenuity of Indian leadership but recognizes strength of the country’s core philosophy. Rooted in India’s philosophical moorings, this perception of entire humanity as one family stands out differently. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, India presented a resonant principle: “One earth, one health.” This principle acted as a beacon of hope for afflicted nations. In the aftermath of Covid-19 pandemic, the imperative for comprehensive healthcare has come to the forefront. This need has sparked a noticeable surge in the global embrace of traditional Indian healthcare practices such as indigenous medicine, yoga and meditation. Notably, yoga, an amalgamation of physical, mental, and spiritual practices rooted in ancient India has seamlessly woven itself into the daily routines of people across the globe. Moreover, India’s healthcare systems including Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, Sowa Rigpa and Homeopathy, progressively garnered global recognition. Presently India is leading the G-20 as the Chair and espoused a grand vision encapsulated by the mantra “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” This profound perspective serves as comprehensive remedy to current challenges like war in Ukraine and forms the bedrock for harmonious and prosperous global coexistence in times to come. The landscape of world order and geopolitics is undergoing swift transformations. New Delhi has engaged with the world powers in new ways by building alliances, strike trade deals and increases defence cooperation. On reshaping global order, Narendra Modi underscored, “In shaping a changing world, Indian people’s capabilities are evident… India’s biggest capability is trust — people’s trust in the government, the country’s bright future and the world’s trust in India. The ball is in our court, and we should not let go of opportunity; no ifs and buts on anyone’s mind about India’s capabilities.” Prime Minister’s 90-minute address also delved into subjects like democracy, women-driven progress and space technology to novel schemes and pressing concern of terrorism. His speech was a clarion call for people to embrace principles of Reform, Perform, and Transform. His vision for a reformed, efficient, and self-reliant India reflects well with aspirations of millions of Indians. As the country navigates its path to progress and prosperity, the roadmap in Modi’s speech provides a framework to guide India’s journey into the future. (Author is Operations Manager at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

Education Geopolitics Hindus Human Rights Policy Security

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77 Years Later: Women, Religion, and Gender Biases in Pakistan

Pakistan’s commemoration of its 76th year of independence ironically highlights the dire situation of its women to the world. Even after seven long decades post-independence, women in Pakistan are still deprived of basic rights like education, freedom of expression, and opportunities for employment. Interactions with these women reveal a bleak landscape of their relentless battles and diminishing hopes, questioning the essence of what independence and empowerment should signify in contemporary Pakistan. The Global Gender Gap Index Report 2022 starkly showcases Pakistan’s lamentable gender disparities. Globally, Pakistan regrettably ranks near the bottom in areas such as economic participation, education, health, and survival. These glaring figures bring to light the deep-seated gender biases corroding Pakistani society. Heartbreakingly, interviews depict that many women, from diverse backgrounds, feel oppressed and frequently persecuted. The glaring lack of women in political leadership roles further accentuates the overpowering grasp of patriarchal norms. As Pakistan grapples with increasing vulnerabilities to climate change, it is the women who suffer most. The evident link between environmental concerns and gender inequities is undeniable, more so when environmental calamities intensify the hardships for women. Disappointingly, Pakistan’s leadership and related agencies seem to disregard the urgent need for gender-sensitive climate policies. Women are forced to grapple with the adverse effects of polluted air, dwindling water resources, and other ecological hazards. Karachi, often hailed as the crown jewel of Pakistan, sadly reflects the country’s deep-seated gender prejudice. Interviews conducted there consistently highlight the harrowing challenges women face daily in their pursuit of fundamental rights. The pervasive issue of harassment looms over many working women, indicating a stark absence of safety and respect in society. Their stories resonate with the perpetual tension between aspiring for basic liberties and the grim reality of a society that denies them. While there are sporadic glimpses of progress in isolated pockets of Pakistan, they are largely eclipsed by overwhelming challenges. Although a section of women is experiencing improved access to education and a shift in societal attitudes, such changes only underline the inconsistent strides Pakistan is making towards gender equality. The societal chasm and economic divides paint a grim narrative: a handful of the educated find better opportunities abroad, while many remain entrapped in their homeland. Regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa serve as stark reminders of areas where opportunities for women’s education and employment are scarcely available. For a select few, empowerment is perceived as a state of mind. Yet, such an uplifting perspective is frequently overshadowed by societal constraints. While acknowledging one’s self-worth can be liberating, the overwhelming societal barriers often appear insurmountable. A disheartening reality permeating Pakistani society is that even though education is regarded as a catalyst for change, women’s aspirations are recurrently thwarted. While both genders emphasise the significance of education, it’s clear that education in isolation cannot reform the prevailing norms. A comprehensive transformation is essential. Families, communities, and policymakers must move beyond mere words and take decisive actions to ensure women are accorded their rightful stature in society. Tragically, when evaluating Pakistan’s intricate web of gender inequality, the plights of religious minority women further exacerbate the situation. Hindu, Sikh, and Christian women, already marginalised due to their gender, are subjected to heightened persecution based on their religious affiliations. Reports and personal accounts underscore distressing instances of kidnappings, forced religious conversions, and coerced marriages. These young girls are often brutally separated from their families and pressured into renouncing their faith, further alienating them within their communities. Such heinous acts are not just a violation of religious freedom and human rights but also emphasise Pakistan’s pressing need to address the dual challenges of gender and religious persecution. The commitment to ensuring every woman’s safety and freedom, regardless of her religious beliefs, must be unwavering. Amid these narratives of despair, the question that emerges is – where does Pakistan envision its future in terms of gender justice and religious freedom? With the rest of the world progressing towards more inclusive societies, Pakistan seems to be caught in a time warp, clinging to outdated norms and practices. Yet, it is essential to remember that the situation isn’t bereft of hope entirely. Grassroots movements, led by resilient Pakistani women and their allies, are sprouting across the country. These women, armed with education, determination, and a vision of a brighter future, are challenging the deeply entrenched norms. They are building networks, using both traditional methods and technology, to reach out, educate, and uplift their peers. Furthermore, international attention and pressure could play a pivotal role. Global agencies, human rights organisations, and foreign governments can leverage their influence to urge the Pakistani administration to enforce stronger laws that protect the rights of all its citizens, irrespective of gender or religion. Sanctions, trade agreements, and international treaties can all serve as tools to nudge the nation towards the path of genuine reform. On the cultural front, artists, writers, and filmmakers within Pakistan are pushing boundaries, creating works that challenge societal norms and provide a platform for the oppressed voices to be heard. The role of art and media as a force for change cannot be underestimated, especially in a digital age where content can transcend borders and inspire solidarity and action globally. Pakistan stands at a crucial juncture. The choices it makes in the upcoming years will determine whether it continues its descent into a quagmire of regressive practices or rises, phoenix-like, to create a society that is just, inclusive, and forward-thinking. As the world watches, it remains to be seen if Pakistan will heed the cries of its women, recognise the strength in their resilience, and move towards a brighter, more equitable future.

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India’s Space Supremacy on Ascent

Chandrayaan-3, ISRO’s premier lunar exploration is a milestone in its path to achieving greater excellence, cost competitiveness and emerge as space power Rahul Pawa Human space exploration has predominantly been shaped by superpowers of the Cold War era, with US space agency, NASA and its Russian counterpart, Roscosmos leading the way. This is a thing of the past. In recent decades, the biggest surprising candidate in contention is the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). Though it started late and faces financial limitations as well as technological constraints, ISRO has demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination, carving out a unique path as a top-tier global space agency. Established in 1969, almost two decades after NASA, ISRO embarked on its journey amidst a space race that was already in full swing. Tasked with the formidable mission of propelling India into the age of space technology and catching up with technologically advanced nations, ISRO’s journey has been far from smooth. In the aftermath of India’s nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, the nation faced broad international sanctions. This development dealt a significant blow to India’s space aspirations when Russia, succumbing to pressure from the Western world, cited the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and withdrew from an agreement to transfer crucial cryogenic engine technology to India. The cryogenic engine technology was indispensable for the development of heavy-lift launch vehicles. Such a setback could have easily derailed India’s ambitions. Instead, it ignited ISRO’s determination, fuelling its drive towards self-reliance and innovation. Over next two decades, ISRO focused its efforts on developing its own cryogenic engine technology. Despite numerous challenges, India’s space agency remained unwavering and in January 2014, it successfully launched the GSLV-D5 launch vehicle, powered by an indigenously developed cryogenic engine. This achievement serves as an exemplary showcase of perseverance and resilience in the face of adversity, a testament to ISRO’s unwavering commitment to its mission and the Indian Republic. Yet, this is just one chapter in the compelling saga of ISRO, where hurdles are transformed into springboards for success. It is a testament to ISRO’s prowess in transforming adversity into opportunity, illuminating India’s flourishing technological capabilities. As ISRO navigated its journey, it pioneered a new paradigm in space exploration, combining cost-effectiveness with ambition, establishing itself as a trailblazer in affordable space technology. The Mars Orbiter Mission, known as Mangalyaan, epitomises this innovative spirit. Accomplished at a fraction of the cost of similar missions by other agencies, Mangalyaan was not just a frugal exploration but a powerful demonstration of ISRO’s formidable capabilities to the world. A vivid illustration of ISRO’s economical yet ambitious spirit is its mastery of multi-launch capabilities, allowing multiple satellites to be taken into orbit with a single rocket. ISRO showcased this brilliantly in February 2017 when it successfully launched a record-breaking 104 satellites aboard a single PSLV-C37 rocket. This launch included not only India’s own earth observation satellite but also miniature satellites from several international players, underscoring ISRO’s leading role in the global commercial space industry. Furthermore, ISRO’s ability to maintain budgetary controls without compromising on scientific endeavours sets it apart from many international counterparts. Whether it is launching the world’s lightest satellite or sending a mission to Mars at a cost lower than a Hollywood blockbuster, ISRO’s exemplary record reflects that cost-effectiveness and ambitious exploration can indeed go hand in hand. Chandrayaan-3, the latest iteration of ISRO’s flagship lunar exploration mission, is poised to embark on its momentous journey, aiming to achieve a soft landing in the Moon’s South Polar region on August 23, 2023 at 5:47 pm. This extraordinary endeavour, born out of years of rigorous scientific inquiry, stands as evidence of India’s expanding influence as a formidable force in space exploration. Chandrayaan-3 aims to succeed where its predecessor fell short, achieving a precise and controlled landing on the lunar surface. The proposition for an Indian moon mission was formally announced by former Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee during his 2003 Independence Day address, and in 2008, Chandrayaan-1 was launched, marking a significant milestone in India’s cosmic journey. Comprising a lunar orbiter and impactor, Chandrayaan-1 not only fulfilled its scientific ambitions but also propelled India into an elite group of lunar explorers. Even before Chandrayaan-1 landed, ISRO and Roscosmos planned its sequel, Chandrayaan-2, with the goal of a moon landing and rover exploration. Due to delays from Roscosmos, ISRO independently developed a lander, pushing the launch to 2019. Technical setbacks and rescheduling notwithstanding, Chandrayaan-2 finally took off on July 22, 2019. Tragically, a software glitch on September 6, 2019, caused the Chandrayaan-2 lander to malfunction, resulting in the loss of communication with ISRO and loss of both the lander and the rover. This incident led to the development of Chandrayaan-3, the next phase of the mission, with the ambitious aim of achieving a successful soft lunar landing. With the clock ticking down, ISRO is diligently overseeing the timeline for the lunar touchdown, taking into account elements such as lunar sunrise. In case circumstances demanded, the landing can be pushed to September from the scheduled August 23 this year. Every step forward brings India’s Chandrayaan-3 closer to a ground breaking achievement on the moon. Successfully achieving this would place India in an elite group of nations; to date, only the US, Russia, and China have accomplished this feat. Odyssey of ISRO embodies the indomitable spirit of human endeavour—an unwavering resolve, tireless perseverance, and self-reliance that magnify India’s ascent as an increasingly formidable space superpower, bolstering its commanding presence within the global space community. Having begun as a latecomer, ISRO has transcended the confines of limitations and boldly challenged established order, thereby demonstrating that constraints are merely catalysts for boundless opportunities. ISRO’s unwavering dedication to perpetual learning, adaptability, and evolution has empowered it to overcome formidable obstacles and lay a robust groundwork for future triumphs. Through a multitude of accomplishments, it has forged an upward trajectory for India, shaping it into a rising space superpower of exceptional versatility. (Author is Research Director at Centre for Integrated and Holistic

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Good numbers, greater challenges!

Antyodaya combined with family centric approach and spiritual odyssey may provide holistic solution to war against poverty K.A.Badarinath It’s heartening that socio-economic development agenda pursued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun to pay off rich dividends. On twelve development indicators that denote poverty levels, there has been substantive progress in the way 1.4 billion Indians live, pursue their aspirations and engage to achieve life objectives. The Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) : Progress Review 2023 report released by Niti Aayog a couple of days back is fairly comprehensive and widely accepted on methodology, sampling and computational tools. Going by this report, over 135 million Indians escaped poverty during 2015-21 under Prime Minister Modi-led government. Many naysayers may tend to dispute these figures and findings. ‘Actual delivery’ and ‘plugging leakage of scarce resources’ in over a dozen of government schemes seem to have made this eminently possible. The MPI was launched in 2021 in line with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Oxford Poverty and Development Initiative (OPDI) surveys globally. Our own MPI covered 707 administrative districts in 28 states and eight union territories to derive that poverty is on definitive decline curve in India. Significant changes have been reported on 12 indicators like nutrition, child and adolescent mortality, maternal health, years of schooling, school attendance, cooking fuel availability, sanitation, and access to clean drinking water, electricity, housing, assets, and bank accounts. These indicators have been spread across three broad areas i.e. education, healthcare and standard of living for Indians that was reviewed for years 2015-16 to 2020-21. Most significant finding of this survey has been that states like Uttar Pradesh have done extremely well with over 34.3 million people escaping poverty. States like opposition ruled Bihar, Rajasthan; BJD ruled Odisha and BJP held Madhya Pradesh seem to have performed well in tackling extreme poverty. Hitherto, these very states were regarded as laggards on socio-economic development parameters. Most interesting aspect is steep reduction in poverty levels across rural India dropping to 19.28 per cent from 32.59 per cent in the five-year period. But, poverty reduction has been at lower levels in cities at 5.27 per cent from earlier 8.65 per cent. Even after about 10 per cent aggregate decrease in poverty levels, highest numbers of poor people continue to live in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya and Madhya Pradesh going by Niti Aayog report. Now, the big question is whether war on poverty in India has entered a decisive phase. Obviously, much more may have to be done to turn India into a developed country by 2047 on all fronts including the Happiness Index. One sure way of measuring poverty as per UNDP was earnings at US $ two per day. There is no empirical data on number of people earning minimum wages in India. Statutorily, national minimum wages per day was set at Rs 178. Though implementation at ground level has been skewed, the minimum wages threshold translates to $ 1.92 as against $ 2 prescribed by UNDP for a developing country like India. Again, state wise minimum wages are different thereby making an aggregate estimate virtually daunting. Accepted principle was that earnings and poverty alleviation have undeniable link thereby making wages singularly one of the most important parameters in counting the poor and tackling the menace. Challenges to alleviating poverty from India is definitely a herculean task that demands newer socio-economic development models that are neither western driven nor communist way of commanding heights principle. Reaching out to last man standing in true spirit of ‘antyodaya’ or ‘sarvodaya’, taking everyone in inclusive development mode is the sure shot prescription to wiping out poverty in Bharat. In fact, that was pushed for by philosophers like Vinoba Bhave, Deen Dayal Upadyaya and veteran labour leader Dattopant Thengdi and rejected by the Western economists’ gang. A tectonic shift in economic development model may have to be seriously attempted by the new government that takes charge in 2024, be it National Democratic Alliance led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the opposition alliance of 26 political parties that seek to meekly challenge him. Shifting gears may not be easy if the war on poverty has to be won in the least possible time and not wait till 2047, centennial of Bharat’s independence. For this to happen, taking Indian growth story down below the district centres to evolve ‘self-reliant’ vibrant village clusters is an alternative that the next government can seriously consider. Going beyond districts and evolving villages-clusters is something that has only been talked about in seminar rooms and not attempted as a serious development model that’s unique to India. Strengthening grassroots governance especially in hinterlands as single window shops is one way to attack poverty and achieve self-reliance. As BJP gears up to roll-out its manifesto for next five years and vision document for next 25 years, taking governance to people’s doorstep is something it can consider as paradigm shift in its approach to eliminate poverty. Secondly, defining our own yardstick on ‘poverty’ is something that development experts may consider in next phase of India’s development strategy. Is earning $ 2 or $ 3 per day the benchmark or something beyond this bread and butter issue needs serious consideration? Thirdly, migration as a phenomenon has taken India by storm in last 75-years mostly after economic reforms of Harvard variety were forced down by Dr Manmohan Singh and his team. Migration from villages to urban centres and beyond to foreign shores has gripped this country which marks huge brain drain as well. Unless a holistic view of this phenomenon is taken, can we win the war against poverty? Fourthly, family centric approach to socio-economic conundrum confronting Indian people may widen the canvass for war on poverty as it pushes for basic shift in societal structures shaking away the shaky unrealistic western or socialistic foundations. Fifthly, redoing Indian society with spiritual content to happiness will complete the cycle in war against poverty. Finding holistic solutions to inadequacy of resources, governance at grassroots, earnings,

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De-risking to defanging currency, trade deals

Rupee, UPI, desi currency trade has taken world by storm. Prime Minister Modi thrust in France, UAE paying handsome dividends K.A. Badarinath Defanging to de-risking global trade and currency deals for India is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi achieved in his visit to France and United Arab Emirates (UAE) last week. Agreements concluded during Prime Minister Modi’s visit not only make trade and currency deals more advantageous from Indian perspective but also reflect the country’s growing confidence in shaping commercial partnerships across geographies. Otherwise, how would one explain taking United Payments Interface (UPI) and RuPay to France or for that matter, UAE? In his West Asia sojourn, UAE and India’s decision to denominate bilateral trade in Rupees and Dirhams is again a big departure from dollar or Euro centric transactions. This is over and above bringing the UPI and RuPay to Abu Dhabi. Currency transactions at retail level on Indian digital platforms to large rupee denominated trade deals have been described by some analysts as ‘de-dollarization’ of Indian economy. But, India’s latest thrust on currency and trade front are more to do with her growing economic and investment muscle and acceptability rather than moving away from the US greenback or euro. Indians visit to the Eiffel Tower in France by purchasing tickets in Rupees may be simpler way of presenting the implications of latest agreements for hoi polloi. The deal involving Lyra of France and National Payments Corporation of India to become operative in September this year would mean much more than paying for tickets at tourist spots in rupees. Wider and willing acceptance of Indian Rupee in Europe is due to financial innovation making Indian digital payments platform UPI secure and affordable across continents. The decision to link United Payments Interface with UAE’s Instant Payment Platform (IPP) makes the country’s digital payments foray wider and deeper in West Asia. In fact, the deal between RBI and UAE’s Central Bank allows for RuPay and UAE Switch interoperable. India’s structured financial messaging system (SFMS) will go to UAE thereby instantly recognizing Indian debit and credit cards. Larger implication is that holding Indian Rupee by central banks and dealers globally by value and quantity will go up many-fold in few years from now. Also, internationalization of Indian rupee is on the verge of becoming a hard reality. Rupee denominated export and import of goods and services internationally will make the Indian currency more tradable given the large ticket size of these transactions. France and UAE are not isolated cases in accepting Rupee denominated trade deals, UPI, RuPay or Rupee Switch. Singapore’s PayNow had done a deal with NPCI to embark on UPI platform. It moved Indian digital payments platform to South East Asian one step further. In May this year, India and Russia had announced making payments easier through RuPay and Mir cards in both countries. UPI of India and Bank of Russia’s Faster Payments System are being linked to make seamless real time transactions in Rupees and Roubles a reality apart from deal on financial messaging systems. Non Resident Indians (NRIs), businessmen, tourists and students in ten countries including Australia, Canada, US, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom apart from others could either receive or send money once their domestic bank accounts were linked to their international phone numbers. As per independent consultancy Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC), one billion rupee denominated transactions per day is estimated to happen in next two years through United Payments Interface and RuPay network. Already, over 73 per cent non-cash transactions in India have gone digital on UPI. Over 18 countries have either opened or in the process of opening Vostro accounts to settle trade deals in rupees or their respective local currencies moving away from US dollar, euro, UK pound or any major international currency. Latest to join this jamboree is Indonesia whose finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati firmly stated in Gandhinagar indicated that bilateral trade will happen in Rupees and Rupiah. Bangladesh went one step further and began trade settlements in Indian rupees. This was limited to US dollar till last week. India’s trade valued at US $ 1.6 trillion in last one year seem to have shaped the country’s strategy on cross border currency deals and rupee transactions. And, Indian strategy of gaining acceptability for rupee is however distinctly different from China’s ‘wolf worrier’ investment and loans strategy to gain dominance. Significant progress made by India on rupee’s acceptability and trade transactions cannot however sidestep the challenges in making it part of the reserve currency basket. Current strategy adopted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Indian government has the potential to deliver notwithstanding its limitations. Unless rupee is increasingly used in current account transactions like investments and capital flows, internationalizing the currency may hit a wall. Secondly, as the RBI working group recommended, Rupee must get included in Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies maintained by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to hold its assets. Recalibration of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) may have to be considered for hastening the path to internationalizing rupee. There has been serious discussion amongst BRICS countries to settle trade related transactions within the group in local currencies. A conscious decision on use of member countries’ currencies to square off trade deals would translate to democratization of economic world order. For the stakeholders, reduction in transactions costs, limiting the foreign exchange risks and more safeguards to the trade deals will be accrued apart from huge optimization in capital costs. India accounting for a modest two per cent of global trade in value terms limits internationalization of rupee. Similarly, there may be little to modest enthusiasm to denominate Indian debt globally in rupee terms instead of dollar. Internationalizing rupee and turning it to a currency in reserve is a long haul project for which a firm foundation has been laid by the Modi government. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi)

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U.S.-India Relations Forge New Frontiers with Technology and Defense Deals

Prachi Mishra The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to the United States resulted in several key technology deals, MoUs, and collaborations. With growing penetration of emerging technologies in the socio-economic-political and security fabric of nation states, it is imperative for global leaders to come together and work on challenges that impact everyone. The bilateral ties between the United States and India have taken a significant leap forward with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden unveiling a series of groundbreaking technology and defense agreements. During his address to the joint session of the U.S. Congress, PM Modi emphasised the global benefits of collaboration on semiconductors and critical minerals, highlighting the role it plays in enhancing the resilience and diversity of supply chains. With defense cooperation blossoming over the years, the United States has emerged as one of India’s key defense partners. Former diplomats and analysts are optimistic about the future of this relationship, foreseeing strengthened ties and more lucrative deals on the horizon. Atul Keshap, President of the U.S.-India Business Council and former charge d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, expects the expansion to extend to military agreements, heralding positive outcomes for both nations, democracy, and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. The remarkable scope of the announced deliverables has impressed observers and sparked confidence in the trajectory of U.S.-India relations. Some key highlights are showcased below; Institution building – Both President Biden and Prime Minister Modi agree that as their collaboration grows, technology will become increasingly important. The founding of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) in January 2023 was welcomed by the leaders as a significant turning point for relations between the United States and India. They urged institutions of higher learning, corporations, and governments to carry out their common goal for the strategic technological partnership. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment for the United States and India to support an open, approachable, safe, and trust-based digital ecosystem that upholds their shared ideals and democratic institutions. Space – By the end of 2023, NASA and ISRO will have created a strategic plan for working together on human spaceflight. Indian astronauts will receive advanced training at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, with the intention of staging a cooperative mission to the International Space Station in 2024. This news was applauded by both the US and India. The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite was sent to the U.R. Rao Satellite Center in Bengaluru, India, and NISAR’s launch from India in 2024 was anticipated. The leaders praised India’s Space Policy – 2023 and urged greater commercial cooperation between the American and Indian corporate sectors along the full value chain of the space economy, as well as to resolve export restrictions and promote knowledge transfer. The Artemis Accords, which establish a shared vision of space exploration for the benefit of all humanity, were signed by India, and President Biden was very grateful for this. Tech trade – Both India and the US applauded the interagency-led Strategic Trade Dialogue’s commencement in June 2023 and instructed both parties to make ongoing efforts to resolve export restrictions, look for measures to boost high technology trade, and ease technology transfer between the two nations. Semiconductors and supply chains – A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Semiconductor Supply Chain and Innovation Partnership as a significant milestone in coordinating the semiconductor incentive programs of India and the US was highly talked about. This will support the growth of commercial possibilities, research, talent, and skills. The decision of Micron Technology, Inc. to work with the Indian government to invest up to $825 million in the construction of a new semiconductor assembly and testing plant in India was applauded by the leaders. Up to 5,000 new direct jobs and 15,000 community work possibilities might be created over the course of the next five years thanks to the joint investment, estimated at $2.75 billion. The leaders also praised Lam Research’s proposal to expedite India’s aspirations for semiconductor education and workforce development by training 60,000 Indian engineers through its Semiverse Solution virtual manufacturing platform, as well as a statement from Applied Materials. Telecom – Two Joint Task Forces on Advanced Telecommunications were established by the leaders, with a focus on Open RAN (O-RAN) and research and development in 5G/6G technologies. The Bharat 6G Alliance in India and the Next G Alliance in the United States will be in charge of the public-private collaboration between vendors and operators. With the support of funding from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), both India and the US are collaborating on Open RAN field trials and rollouts, including scaled deployments, with operators and vendors from both markets. The leaders praised Indian businesses’ involvement in the American “rip and replace” program. They supported an ambitious plan for 6G networks that called for collaboration on standards, easier access to chipsets for system development, and the creation of cooperative R&D initiatives. Quantum tech – The creation of a joint Indo-U.S. Quantum Coordination Mechanism to promote cooperation between business, academia, and government, as well as their efforts to reach a comprehensive Quantum Information Science and Technology agreement, was hailed by President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. The Quantum Economic Development Consortium and the Quantum Entanglement Exchange both warmly welcome India’s involvement in order to promote professional and business interactions with other prominent, quantum-minded countries. Programs for quantum training and exchange will be maintained and expanded, and the US and India will endeavour to remove obstacles to cross-border scientific cooperation. The leaders hailed the start of a $2 million grant program under the U.S.-India Science and Technology Endowment fund for the combined research and commercialisation of quantum technologies and artificial intelligence (AI), and they urged public-private partnerships to develop these technologies. Science collaborations – The leaders welcomed 35 creative joint research initiatives in emerging technologies that were supported by the Indian Department of Science and Technology (DST) and the American National Science Foundation (NSF). Together, the NSF and DST will

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India, smart power in the making!

G-2 – US and India – super power grouping may not work for either side. Emerging and critical tech at fulcrum of bilateral engagement K.A.Badarinath The very talk of stitching up G-2 super power group between US and India during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit is rather an unforgettable moment. In a fluid global situation, whether G-2 would finally be reality or not is something for geo-strategic experts to analyse, separate grain from chaff and derive the implications. US press has been abuzz with possibility of President Joe Biden ably assisted by secretary of state Jake Sullivan to bring focus to the idea of G-2 – US and India – forming a super power group. This is akin to what was talked about in early ‘80s by the US security establishment that attempted such a grand grouping with the then reluctant and recalcitrant China. Later, there were reports that President Barack Obama had revived this G-2 grouping with China when Hu Jintao was the powerful general secretary of Chinese Communist Party and country’s President. This grand idea of US – China group gained popularity after two major think tanks, Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson Institute for International Economics had revived the conversation in 2011. Pomp and show that surrounds Prime Minister Modi’s visit as globally most popular leader, forming a G-2 – US and India – is something that needs deeper understanding and analysis. US, world’s largest economic power and strategic powerhouse thinking of India as a G-2 ally is elating. Jack Sullivan is reported to be harbinger of this idea, if at all it works for both sides. As G-2, identifying common rivals, partners and competitors, may not after all be a good idea for both US and India in an ever evolving world order. From US perspective, depending heavily on its allies like Japan, Australia and India to checkmate China in Asia theatre and elsewhere including Asia Pacific is a calculative move. At the same time, complete breakdown of relations between China and US is not a feasible preposition. In fact, this complex security matrix explains why democratic white house under President Joe Biden is interfacing with all the three – Japan, India and China – this week to finalize its Asia strategy. US being a great ‘strategic ally’, the first to go to, may continue to work for India. That does not allow Indian foreign affairs establishment under Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to shed the ‘independent policy’ stance that has come to smart focus in recent past. India’s independent policy stance gained credence for New Delhi’s stand on Russia – Ukraine conflict, Covid-19 management, multi-faceted engagement as G-20 President. Not becoming part of a military alliance has been stated policy of India and there’s little or no scope for a change in this stance. It’s in this backdrop that India not joining NATO forces should be viewed notwithstanding the standing invitation from US. In the Russia – European Union standoff, India refused to side with one group or the other unlike China and US taking respective sides. As G-20 President, batting for African Union’s full membership speaks volumes. At the same time, engaging with Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Quad with equanimity brought was recognized by world powers as a responsible way for the 1.4 billion strong India as the largest growing economy for two consecutive years and hat trick to be hit. In this backdrop, emerging and critical technologies, removing export controls on transfer of this knowhow by US to its most trusted partner India could be the starting point to taking bilateral relations one notch above. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space, semi-conductors, dedicated telecom infrastructure for strategic heft, biotechnology, aerospace are among areas where export controls may have to be lifted and shared with India. For instance, buying ‘predator’ drones to enhance surveillance and ‘jet engines’ must make technology transfer integral to the two governments level defence deal. Refurbishing and servicing the US Naval ships in India should become more of a common practice rather than one off events. Areas like education, affordable healthcare, vaccines, medicines; solar energy and green hydrogen as well as joint defence production deals can be the next big step for the two large democracies that are open, flexible and transparent in their relations. Independence in foreign policy engagement at bilateral level and multi-lateral issues is something that India takes pride in. And, this independence in policy will have to be assiduously protected, cherished and propagated for India to play a larger, responsible and compassionate power to reckon with. Smartness with soft power image of India goes well to realize her dreams of ‘Vasudaiva Kutumbakam’, world as ‘one big happy family’ that’s humane. (Author is Director and Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Geopolitics Leadership

627

Is China’s paradigm on ‘mutual success’ real?

Beijing has to come clean on larger issues, shift in outlook welcome. India never lost its ‘eastern wisdom’ while engaging with Western partners. Rohan Giri In an editorial, Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, Global Times on May 30 indicated a possible shift in its India outlook. For a change, it captioned the edit, “We morally, emotionally support India’s de-colonization”. This comment on inauguration of a new Parliament building getting rid of the British colonial re definitely reflects Chinese establishment’s intent to go a wee bit soft on India. It has also garnered the attention of leaders across the globe. This change of heart, if it bears out in reality, cannot be ignored. Pleasing gestures like this editorial as exhibited by China present an intriguing subject for examination. As per reports from Chinese embassy and consulates, over 60,000 visas have been issued to Indians visiting China in first five months of this year. Furthermore, Chinese missions globally have affirmed their readiness to grant more visas for purposes such as business, studies, tourism, work, and family reunions, should the need arise. Global Times editorial last week emphasized India’s commitment to de-colonization and self-reliance. It applauded India’s efforts to remove vestiges of colonial authority, such as renaming iconic buildings and limiting English usage. The article advised India to focus on its national strengths rather than seeking legitimacy through techniques and accolades from outside sources. Rational interpretation to ‘outside sources’ would be India’s multi-nodal foreign policy engagement with western powers. While congratulatory editorial in Global Times is in order, its caution against Western manipulation is old communist line seeking exclusive engagement with India. Global Times asking India to embrace the Eastern Wisdom is possibly a benign attempt to wean India away into its fold. Its emphasis on ‘mutual success’ of China and India is yet another line that many in India’s Left and centrist political discourse also subscribe to. The editorial does not mince words while warning India to stay away from US with the standard communist dogma that US was fueling enemity between India and China. In this context, there are big questions that Chinese communist leadership will have to come up with plausible and convincing answers. President Xi Jingping and his cronies may have to come straight on Galvan border mis-adventurism that led to troop’s deployment on either side of Indo-Chinese borders. China will have to offer an explanation on its collaboration with Pakistan on terrorism in the United Nations (UN) and mutual prosperity pitch with India which may not go hand in hand. Continued expansionist bids in Eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, opposition to G20 conferences in Indian state Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, providing Chinese names to Indian cities and towns is something that China will have to justify. Can this be the template for China’s Paradigm of mutual success? Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy in 2022 report on “Chinese Outlook on International Security” has toed a different line on India. The study has bracketed India on par with US vis-à-vis threat posed to Chinese interests. India’s threat to China has also been compared what was perceived in Japan vis-à-vis China even today. China has come up openly on its stand towards India rather than sending out mixed signals that confuse its communist cadres and their counterparts in India. Global Times editorial also said, “In Chinese society, few people believe that India’s economic and social development will become a threat to China. The vast majority of people believe that the two countries can succeed together. We hope India can demonstrate more clarity and confidence in its dealings with China and the West.” In last three years, India’s position on Chinese threat perception has been consistent. It has in no uncertain terms said on more than one occasion that threat from China has risen multifold. Global Times editorial exhorting India to stay away from Western manipulations has come ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington DC for a state visit later this month. China’s expectation that should not protect its defensive and offensive interests is rather unrealistic. India’s right to pursue an independent foreign and economic policy formulation, choice of friends in sync with its view seeking global peace needs to be respected. (author is operations manager at non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi)

Leadership Technology

647

Much ado about something

Digital India bill should democratize information highways, digital ecosystem, address stakeholders concerns & not limit benefits to a big few Prachi Mishra In a few days from now, Narendra Modi government is likely to come up with first draft of the much-awaited Digital India Bill. If one were to go by officials, the bill is intended at strengthening information technology, security and information infrastructure in India. The Bill, when finally adopted by Parliament and enacted, will complement the Digital Personal Data Protection Bill, 2022 and Indian Telecommunication Bill, 2022. In last two decades, after IT Act, 2000 became operative there have been astronomical developments in technological innovation. To keep pace with these innovations, the act’s regulatory framework was amended. The IT Act Amendment of 2008 and IT Rules 2011 were rolled out to define cyberspace and provided ground for handling of digital activities in India. But, the Act was inadequate to address present-day concerns of cyber security, crime and do justice to privacy concerns of Indian people. Emergence of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, Quantum technologies, Metaverse, Big Data, Block chain, etc has thrown up new challenges in the regulatory framework. Given the limitations within the existing IT Act, a separate act has been in the work for a few months to address the growing digital and cyber demands of Indian people. In this backdrop, India’s economic interests can be furthered when the technological development and innovation apart from related regulatory framework is aligned. With growing penetration of digital technologies and increasing vulnerabilities of cyberspace, there is a need to ensure India’s national security was primacy. Reportedly, Digital India Bill, 2023 is intended at catering to India’s rising aspirations and become a catalyst in her growth and development while upholding people’s fundamental rights and country’s security concerns. Given the delicate balance that needs to be achieved through the new framework, the expectations from various stakeholders may have to be enlisted. Firstly, the Bill may have to address ethical concerns that are emerging as a consequence of disruptive technologies. Technological development will have to be seen as being morally correct, legitimate, and ethical. For instance, India should be able to address and counter adverse impact of artificial intelligence like deep fakes and misinformation. The new framework may evolve a robust and holistic mechanism to address issues related to cyber security. In 2022, as per CERT-in data, there were over 1.39 million cyber-attacks on India. This roughly over 253 per cent more than suck attacks reported for 2018. Hence, the Bill should put in mechanisms to resolve high volume and velocity of these cyber-attacks seen across sector, be it finance, banking, security establishment to political theatre. Also, with highly disruptive Quantum technologies round the corner, the Bill must suggest ways to ensure cyber security in the new environment. The proposed bill may have to find solution to tackle the manifold rise in misinformation, hateful content and fake news that’s become the new normal in India. In last couple of years, big technology firms like Facebook and Twitter have been at loggerheads with the government on dealing with mis-formation on their respective platforms. The Bill will have to reflect a possible consensus of all stakeholders on dealing with misinformation, disinformation and fake news that’s rampant. The bill’s provisions should be aligned with innovation. At present, India’s patent tally is dismal and most technology is imported from the Western countries. Be it hardware or software, India’s patents fall behind big time. The Bill should give impetus and incentivize innovation in digital technologies. Additionally, it should augur well for all the stakeholders of digital ecosystem and not restrict the benefits disproportionately to a handful tech firms. The new dispensation may have to address issues like liability, accountability, and ownership of data and its usage. Of late, there have been cases where social unrest resulted in violence and arson because content guidelines for these platforms were amiss. Or, even the existing norms were violated. The Digital India Bill, 2023 will be discussed at a time when India has moved many notches above in many different fields of technological and digital innovation. Being home to 113 unicorns and third largest start-up economy, India’s innovation ecosystem is booming like never before. Also, with the Semiconductor Mission, the strong impetus on adopting digital technologies, and the National Quantum Mission in place, India is bound to grow steadily in the coming years. Stakeholders expect the bill to empower them, democratize the information high way and digital ecosystem, aid other relevant economic policies. India should ensure that all voices of the entire stakeholder ecosystem are heard and it is enacted in time. (Author is Research Consultant at Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies, New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

Business Leadership Policy Technology

628

Basking under the Sun!

India to hit a hat-trick as fastest growing economy, unparalleled transformation in nine years, per capita incomes to be $ 5200 by 2032. K.A.Badarinath For second year in continuum, India is the fastest growing economy globally with impressive 9.1 per cent and 7.2 per cent clocked in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Even with projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for this fiscal ending March 31, 2024, India will top the global sweepstakes and hit a hat-trick. This means the moon for an economy that’s home to world’s largest population at 1.4 billion, an expanding aspirational class and the middle-income families that continue to move upward in the consumption and investment chain. From investors’ point of view, both domestic and foreign players would make merry given the healthy uptick in demand for goods and services within the country. This is significant as Germany has slipped into recession, top economies in Europe are on a downslide and the US continues to struggle out of a whopping $ 31.4 trillion debt crisis. The tentative deal between democratic White House and Republicans do not mean much given that President Joe Biden is in a tight corner. Prolonged war in Eastern Europe getting worse and Kiev’s drones hitting Moscow’s metropolis send out two firm signals. One, the shadow-boxing by big boys with Russia and Ukraine playing front foot continues to adversely impact geo-political and economic matrix. Secondly, there seems to be no abrupt end to this long drawn conflict notwithstanding peace overtures made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Its impact is bound to be significantly felt as the global growth figures are expected to trim to 2.8 per cent in 2023 as against 3.4 per cent a year before. In the melee, Indian stock markets being valued fifth largest globally at $ 3.3 trillion after US, China, Japan and Hong Kong is something that one can rejoice about. It only indicates the investment appetite of both foreign players and domestic retailers that yearn to dip into the famed India growth story that’s only getting meatier by the day. Also, the confidence that investors repose in our regulator, Securities Exchange Board of India to run the show with zero payment defaults apart from strong and stable central government that commands huge credibility politically and with economic stakeholders. Three prime numbers that stand out are services, exports and agriculture sectors contribution to healthy GDP growth beating doomsayers’ diatribe on economic mismanagement. Secondly, front loading capital expenses and big private consumption has fuelled the Indian economy. Gross fixed capital formation at 11.4 per cent was highest in over a decade and its share in GDP accounting for 34 per cent. Private consumption rose by 7.5 per cent and its share was highest at 58.5 per cent. Most important signal in the macro-economic numbers was the confidence within the economic managers of Modi government that inflation can be contained to four per cent going forward. Unexpectedly healthy GDP numbers have special significance for Indian government led by Prime Minister Modi who has led from the front in last nine years. This bears out in the American financial services Morgan Stanley’s report released on Wednesday on nine years ‘transformation’ heralded by team Modi. Reforms undertaken across sectors in last nine years including governance laid the foundation for enhancing the per capita income to $ 5200 by 2031-32 from $ 2200 reported in 2021. And, over 46 per cent households would earn anything between $ 10,000 – 35,000, nearly double the proportion in 2021. Most important is that capital expenditure and fixed capital formation is expected to grow exponentially as percentage of GDP and share of Indian exports double to 4.5 per cent by 2031. As pointed out by government’s economy managers, scams and corrupt deals that marked 2004-14 decade are a thing of the past. From lost decade to performing and transformative ten years is what even Morgan Stanley seems to have surmised in its detailed report. Fourteen quarters of runaway inflation and 12 quarters of decline in economic growth and industrial production during 2004-14, pre-Modi era stands out as it culminated to virtual financial collapse that was triggered by the housing bubble burst in US that burnt the world with its contagion effect. Change is order of the day and India has arrived leaving behind the dark days! (author is Director & Chief Executive of Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies, a Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

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