Geopolitics Leadership

Naya Kashmir shines bright on global stage

Tourism, infrastructure development, rich cultural heritage, progress, inclusive growth, transformation & positive change defines ‘nature’s bowl’ Rahul Pawa The third G20 tourism working group meeting is currently underway in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), capturing global attention as it showcases India’s rich cultural identity and vast tourism potential. This three-day event focuses on promoting sustainable and eco-friendly tourism, with the aim of driving economic growth, preserving cultural heritage, and fostering sustainable development in the region. Amidst the captivating sights of unprecedented development and delightful interaction between the people of Jammu and Kashmir and G20 delegates, certain entities and individuals persist in propagating an unfounded belief that J&K is engulfed in perpetual suffering. However, the reality on the ground reveals a different story. J&K is currently hosting its first grand international event since 2019 after it was designated a Union Territory (UT) following amendment to Article 370 of the Indian constitution. This amendment empowered residents of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as Ladakh, with the same rights enshrined in the Constitution of India and the benefits of central laws enjoyed by citizens across the country. Hosting of this historic international event by Jammu and Kashmir stands as testimony to region’s progress and newfound stability. It showcases the region’s intrinsic, inclusive, and vibrant nature, highlighting its rich cultural heritage, tourism potential, and commitment to sustainable development. As international delegates participate in this event, they witness firsthand the positive impact of the constitutional amendment, dispelling lingering misconceptions and emphasizing the region’s journey towards a more prosperous and harmonious future. Furthermore, this event goes beyond mere tourism promotion. It also places emphasis on creating employment opportunities, developing infrastructure, fostering interdepartmental coordination, and ensuring government’s accountability to the people of Kashmir. Through targeted initiatives and collaborations, the event aims to spur growth, thereby contributing to overall socio-economic progress of the region. The event places strong emphasis on infrastructure development, recognising its significance in facilitating seamless travel experiences, enhancing connectivity, and providing essential amenities for both tourists and residents. The focus is on building robust and sustainable infrastructure that supports the growth of the tourism industry while also benefiting the local communities. Additionally, the event seeks to foster interdepartmental coordination, recognising that effective collaboration among various government departments is essential for the successful implementation of policies and initiatives. By promoting synergy and communication between different entities, the event aims to streamline processes, enhance efficiency, and ensure the optimal utilisation of resources for the development of the tourism sector and related industries. Furthermore, the event underscores the importance of government accountability to the people of Kashmir. It aims to create a transparent and responsive governance framework, where the needs and aspirations of the local population are prioritised. Through open dialogue and consultations, the event seeks to ensure that the government remains accountable to its citizens, fostering trust and strengthening the bond between the authorities and the people they serve. Most importantly, this event goes above and beyond conventional tourism promotion by encompassing a multifaceted approach that reflects a holistic vision for the sustainable and inclusive development of Jammu and Kashmir. It aims to ensure that its people and communities thrive in a conducive environment, where their well-being and aspirations are at the forefront of the region’s growth and progress. Regrettably, there are individuals who persist in their unwillingness to acknowledge the positive transformations taking place in Jammu and Kashmir. However, their efforts are likely to falter when confronted with the prevailing reality on the ground. The G20 event in Kashmir, aptly named ‘Naya Kashmir’ (New Kashmir), stands as a powerful symbol that uplifts the spirits of the local population and sheds light on the remarkable progress achieved in the region. It serves as a testament to the unwavering resilience and determination of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, who have embraced progress and growth as a means to overcome the challenges posed by terrorism and pave the way for a more prosperous and harmonious future. The success of the G20 event in Kashmir extends beyond its ability to showcase the true essence of Jammu and Kashmir; it also lies in its capacity to dispel the unfounded beliefs and narratives perpetuated by a few. This event uplifts the spirits of the local population, instilling within them a profound sense of pride and optimism. Despite the persistence of challenges and the dissemination of misinformation by certain individuals, the G20 event in Kashmir stands as a shining example of the transformative power inherent in positive change. Ultimately, the G20 event in Kashmir serves not only as a celebration of India’s rich cultural identity and the immense tourism potential of the region, but also as a platform to showcase the indomitable spirit, resilience, and unwavering determination of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. It sends a resounding message that J&K is not a region condemned to perpetual suffering, but rather a land brimming with opportunities and possibilities waiting to be realised. (author is an international criminal lawyer and director of research at New Delhi based think tank Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

Geopolitics Leadership

706

Kashmir on way to new vistas

G-20 summit next week will showcase India’s commitment to transform the valley into cradle of human peace, tourism and economic activity Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida showcased Hiroshima as harbinger of peace, fulcrum of development and civilizational connect by hosting G-7 summit. This high level global engagement happened 77-years after it was devastated by atomic bombs detonated by United States on August 6 and 9 in 1945 killing about 226,000 civilians. Change and makeover is law of life. And, Kashmir aligns perfectly well in India’s decision host the G-20 tourism working group next week in Srinagar. This provides perfect opportunity for India to showcase development, democratic transition, peace and tranquility brought to the paradise on earth in less than a decade. The decision to take G-20 to Kashmir may not be palatable to India’s adversaries that rake up non-issues. Showcasing Kashmir’s potential to become part of global tourism circuit cannot be missed by India’s friends and foes alike. Terror, islamist jihad and across the border meddling by non-constitutional actors is virtually a thing of the past as Jammu & Kashmir picked up pieces and moved on. Perceptible change that has dawned on Kashmir following the exodus of over 150,000 Hindus in 1990 is something to write home about. India’s decision to G-20 in Kashmir is part of its larger strategy to fully leverage its Presidency of the most influential global group this year and pep up the valley’s local economy and cater to upwardly mobile aspirations of the youth that have firmly said ‘no’ to violence, mindless killings in the name of jihad. The 200-odd meetings under India’s G-20 presidency have been spread to over 50 cities from Humpi in Karnataka to Siliguri in Assam moving away from the usual Delhi and Mumbai based engagements. Normally, cities spotlighted globally become big tourist destinations globally and that’s perhaps the idea in taking G-20 tourism summit to Kashmir. Let us not forget that Reykjavík, the capital city of Iceland turned into a global tourist hotspot after the US President Ronald Regan and General Secretary of Communist Party of Soviet Union Michael Gorbachev held their summit level talks in run up to nuclear power treaty between the two countries way back in October1986. Similarly Marrakesh, the western city of Morocco emerged as topline city for holidaying and tourism after it gave birth to the World Trade Organisation in 1994. Bringing new cities, locales and areas to global attention has not limited to leaders elsewhere. Historic summit level talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jingping held in Ahmedabad after landslide victory of the Indian leader in 2014 has etched in the memory of global tourism circuit. In fact, as reports suggest, this gave idea to President Xi to host Modi in Chinese province of Shaanxi. Shaanxi also being the birthplace of President Xi’s father emerged as a regular tourist destination for both domestic and international travellers. From being friction point between India and Pakistan since 1947, Kashmir has moved on unrest and violence. India’s significant focus to restore peace and stability, political changes in 2019 has begun pay off dividends in the form of development, attracting investments, and enhancing tourism opportunities. On August 5, 2019, Union Home Minister Amit Shah piloted a proposal in Parliament to end Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and this also led to bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories. The amendment in Article 370 of Indian Constitution also turned out to be the turning point for positive changes and integration that paved the way for prosperous future, including economy, infrastructure, governance, and social welfare. Massive makeover of road networks, bridges, tunnels, and power infrastructure and enhanced connectivity with rest of the country is just one part in Kashmir returning to normalcy. Completion of the Zojila tunnel, the Ujh multipurpose Project and the engineering marvel Chenab rail bridge — the world’s highest railway bridge — are among major infrastructure projects that provided heft to transportation as well as unlock the region’s immense economic potential. Revival of grassroots democratic institutions, such as Block Development Councils leading to delegation of governance enabled people to have direct say in their affairs. This decentralization of power fostered inclusivity, accountability, and efficient utilization of resources, ensuring that development reached every corner of Jammu and Kashmir. While showcasing the development thrust, India may also go overboard to sell Kashmir as cradle of peace ready to host the international travelers seeking to find an alternative to Swiss Alps. Hosting G-20 meetings in Kashmir is also a tight slap on anti- India propagandists, jihadists and their handlers globally. G-20 tourism summit should be seen as just a beginning in transformation of the Kashmir valley.

Business Policy World

603

Mid-course correction is what the good doctor prescribed!

Even if US revises debt ceiling of $ 31.4 trillion, its risk ridden economy may precipitate a larger global crisis of larger magnitude K.A.Badarinath Looming debt crisis in United States with potential to default, showdown between Republicans that control the House and Democratic White House may not augur well for the global economy and developing countries like India. Owing to unsustainable economic policies over few decades and irresponsible handling of resources has led the largest global economic powerhouse into a big mess of its own making. Even if President Joe Biden manages to clinch a last minute deal with Republican top leadership to push up the debt ceiling beyond US $ 31.4 trillion, larger questions continue to haunt the Americans. Mobilizing loans through US bonds or debt paper may not be the immediate concern but potential default on June 1 is what may turn catastrophic to not only Americans but the entire world. For Americans, it means that Democrats will not be able fund their fancied social security payments on medical and health insurance, pension or social development projects. President Biden and his Democratic administration will have to put on hold all fancy projects like waiving students’ loans or fees to providing personal tax concessions to youngsters and new taxpayers Democrats understand the full importance of lifting the already unsustainable debt limit of $ 31.4 trillion. In fact, this also explains US President Biden’s decision to forego the scheduled Quad summit in Australia and head back home after G-7 leaders meeting in Hiroshima. Eventually, the Quad summit had to be called off with heads of US, Australia, Japan and India meeting briefly at Hiroshima on side lines of G-7 congregation. The larger issue that confronts US and the world is a wee bit different and difficult. There’s every possibility of US moving into economic recession thereby stymieing demand for goods and services globally. This will hit the economic growth sentiment internationally big time. Secondly, possibility of banks getting stuck with worthless dollar denominated bonds or debt paper in medium term cannot be ruled out unless both Federal Reserve and political leadership in US takes recourse to mid-course correction that involves massive spending cuts or improve the country’s revenues. Such a policy may be very unattractive for Democratic voters when they have to elect their President in 2024. Thirdly, to contain the contagion effect of US economy moving into abyss will be a herculean task. One cannot easily forget the global financial crisis triggered by real estate linked mortgages that turned worthless in 2007-08. This US housing bubble stirred a perfect storm to impact both large developing countries like India as well as least developed countries alike. Excessive risk exposure taken by banks was the biggest element in this crisis of the worst kind after great depression of 1929. Fourthly, if the US default finally happens, then countries like India having huge exposure to American green back will also face the heat. Thankfully enough, conscious diversification in her currency basket over last decade may limit the adverse impact on India. But, this diversification should go whole hog and consciously lead to pursuing ‘de-dollarization of Indian economy’ as a state policy. Fifthly, while exports to US become attractive and import bills get squeezed, demand slump globally will negate the advantages gained in trade deals. There’s no reason why India should not pursue a more independent trade and currency policy keeping herself at a safe distance from the Federal Reserve and recalibrate her linkages with Washington DC. Sixthly, Democrats and Republicans must work towards mid-course correction on economic and development front rather than recklessly going for borrowing more from Tom to pay Peter. In the past, publicly available data suggests that US debt limits were revised upwards 68 times since 1960. Limiting the fresh debt limit to US $ 1.5 trillion till March 31, 2024 and achieving concomitant cuts in spending by US $ 1.47 trillion would save the perilously placed US economy. Seventhly, precipitating a perfectly cooked crisis is not in anyone’s interest and hence reining in the fresh spending to less than one per cent as per Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 makes eminent sense. On the parallel, limiting the mop up of fresh debt and gradual reduction in existing debt stock would augur well for US economy that’s seeking to reposition itself and instil confidence with its trading and investment partners. US Department of Treasury report of 2022 clearly outlines the course correction to be adopted for reversing unsustainability of the country’s economy where primary budget deficits have grown exponentially. Going by conservative projections made in this report, it will take about 75-years to bring the American economy back on even keel. “The debt-to-GDP ratio rises continuously in great part because primary deficits lead to higher levels of debt. The continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current fiscal policy is unsustainable” the report had cautioned. The debt-to-GDP ratio was approximately 97 per cent at the end of FY 2022, and under current policy and based on this report’s assumptions is projected to reach 566 per cent in 2097, it pointed out. While pursuing a revised economy policy dispensation, President Biden should not easily forget the 2011 crisis that was triggered by US Congress. This pushed up the borrowing costs for treasury by a humungous US $ 1.3 billion in just one year. Also, US should not provide any leverage to China for en-cashing on its crisis. China is easily the largest holder of US debt paper, notes and long term bonds with valuations ranging from $ 859.4 billion to $ one trillion. China may like to leverage the US debt paper to rebalance its own resources position that again may not be looking too good. China’s own debt of US $ 14.34 trillion as of April 12, 2023 and swelling at a whopping $ 3.81 trillion annually may not be something to brag about by President Xi’s oligarchs driven communist party. Potential defaults in US, machinations

Geopolitics Leadership Policy

644

Tactical Power Shift

India & Japan for open Indo-Pacific, game changing bilateral ties define Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to New Delhi Prachi Mishra Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s two-day visit to India is part of on-going bilateral engagement between the countries agreed in 2006. Since then, Indian and Japanese leaders have consistently worked on strengthening ties and auguring a stronger and open Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Kishida’s visit signals growing influence of QUAD. It is also significant as India and Japan presently hold the G20 and the G7 presidencies respectively. Kishida’s visit comes in the wake of San Shinzo Abe’s tragic death. Prime Minister Abe is regarded as a great friend of India seeking to reconnect two classical civilizations. Kishida’s statements have pointed to a turning point with continuity in bilateral strategic relations. Highlight of his visit was to unveil a plan on Open and Free Indo-Pacific for which he committed US $ 75 billion. Japan and India have a long and shared history of bilateral relations, strategic cooperation, and a resolve to build a peaceful Indo-Pacific. Historical connect India and Japan share centuries-old relationship. Their ties can be traced back to the sixth century when Buddhism was introduced in Japan and adopted as a way of life in Japanese society. In 752 AD, Bharatiya Buddhist monk Bodhisena consecrated the Todaiji Temple at Nara. The towering Buddha statue at Tara has weathered many storms and stood the test of times. All through the last few centuries, India and Japan have never been adversarial towards each other and their relations have been free of disputes. In the recent past, Swami Vivekananda, Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose, Rabindranath Tagore, and JRD Tata have been Indian cultural ambassadors to Japan[1]. In contemporary times, India and Japan signed a peace treaty after the Second World War which not only established India’s diplomatic relations in Japan but also uplifted morale of Japanese people who were recovering from the aftermath of the war. India also extended its iron resources to the war-torn Japan and helped immensely in its reconstruction. The first yen-loan was extended by Japan to India after Premier Nobusuke Kishi’s official visit to India in 1957. The two nations also find a lot of commonality in upholding democratic principles and rule of law. There have been umpteen trade and commerce deals between India and Japan. Set up in 1903, the Japan-Indian Association is the oldest global informal organisation in Japan. Economic and commercial cooperation Trade and commerce ties between India and Japan have steadily strengthened over last few decades. Both nations have a mutually beneficial relationship; Japan has tapped into India’s emerging and expanding market while India has relied on Japan for technology transfers and financial assistance. India-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement signed in 2011 is the most holistic agreement that not only facilitates movement of goods and services but also human resource, shared development of intellectual property, and custom processes. Japan has been the largest financial donor for India. Over the years, Japan has supported India in infrastructure and technological development in sectors like railways and roadways, power, and environment. The most recent and the most relevant projects are Ahmedabad – Mumbai High Speed Rail, Western Dedicated Freight Corridor, Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, and the Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor. The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation was also facilitated by Japanese assistance. Table 1 lists items of trade between India and Japan. Table 1. Import-export goods in Indo-Japan trade ties. Imports from Japan to India Exports from India to Japan Machinery and instruments Petroleum products Transport equipment Chemicals and compounds Iron and steel goods Fish and by-products of fisheries Electronic equipment and goods Metal ores and scrap Organic chemicals Clothing, textiles, accessories Tools Iron and steel products During financial year ending March 31, 2022, India was the 18th largest trading partner for Japan. Concomitantly, Japan was the 13th largest trading partner for India. Also, Japan’s foreign direct investment has soared in the last few years, with India becoming the 5th largest investing country for 2021-22. India has seen a sharp rise in the number of Japanese firms totalling to 1455 that operate in India. Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show the value of trade carried out between the two countries since 2008. Fig. 1.Trade values of Indo-Japan trade. Source: Ministry of Trade and Commerce, Government of India. Ministry of Economy, Trade, Industry, Government of Japan. CIHS Analytics Fig. 2. Foreign direct investment from Japan to India in the last few years. Source: Ministry of Trade and Commerce, Government of India. Ministry of Economy, Trade, Industry, Government of Japan. CIHS Analytics. India has been the biggest recipient of the Japanese Official Development Assistance (ODA) loans in the last few years. India receives these loans from Japan under the latter’s “Act East” policy and “Partnership for Quality Infrastructure”. Table 2 summarises Japan’s ODA towards India. Table 2. Japan’s ODA towards India[2] Loans 312.25 billion Yen 2021-22 Grants 5.12 billion Yen 2020-21 Technical Cooperation 8.5 billion Yen 2021-22 The two countries have strengthened their relationship by focusing on developing strong supply chains through the India-Japan Industrial Competitiveness Partnership. Both India and Japan have also been striving for environmental protection and reduction of greenhouse gases. Their Clean Energy Partnership which was formulated in March 2022 focuses on achieving carbon neutrality and working towards energy security. Along with the Japan-India Energy Ministerial Dialogue, it also aims for a strategic cooperation plan in the fields of hydrogen, ammonia, and LNG. Science and technology cooperation Both India and Japan have benefitted from their science and technology cooperation over last several decades. While Japanese firms have revolutionised the Indian technology market, Indian software engineers, scientists, mathematicians, and technologists have contributed immensely to scientific research and development in Japan. India and Japan signed bilateral Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement in 1985 to foster an era of scientific advancement in the Indo-Pacific. Subsequently, the India-Japan Science Council (IJSC) was set up in 1993 facilitated several advancements. Till date, it has[3] Over 550 students have attended exchange programs through a

Business Leadership Policy

694

Make the best with change in mind-set

Cooperatives can deliver $ one trillion economic expansion; provide work opportunities to millions and fuel boom in grassroots firms K.A.Badarinath Fourth pillar of Indian economy is on the resurrection mode. From state-owned public undertakings, private and foreign companies, cooperative enterprises considered as fourth engine of economic growth are in for a big makeover. Taking cooperatives seriously as grassroots enterprises to spur rural economy, create jobs and add rural wealth to India’s growth heft was something long overdue. And, this government seems to have got its heart and soul at the right place to revive the cooperative enterprises and help achieving double digit growth and take Indian rural people global. A year-long drive to rejuvenate these enterprises with huge potential across a dozen sectors in the spirit of ‘antyodaya’ as envisaged by Maharshi Arbindo and Vinoba bhave of ‘Godan’ fame is timely. Narendra Modi government’s two decisions in cooperatives sector last one year stand out especially the the rural enterprises that are mostly agricultural primary credit societies. As per government’s own data, over 36,000 such societies have turned dysfunctional with many of these enterprises unviable. Its decision to shut down cooperatives that are untenable is a good beginning to reform the sector that can boast of only half a dozen large multi-state enterprises that are really successful. But, 13-crore members’ network across 99,000 primary credit societies has every chance to add economic muscle to the Indian growth and bring about fundamental change in rural hamlets across the country. Revival of the primary credit societies also will have cumulative effect with balance sheets of 352 district central cooperative banks improving and 34 state cooperative banks getting healthier. These banks have had refinanced or recapitalized thousands of primary credit societies with Nabard’s funding support. Many of these banks were also in doldrums owing to losses or unrealized funds lent to the societies. Integration of these credit societies with focus on core agricultural lending with dairy cooperatives with 1.5 crore membership in two lakh cooperative enterprises would help diversify the risk and open up new business opportunities. Bringing in over 25,000 fisheries cooperatives with 38 lakh members would culminate into the grass roots enterprises taking up multi-modal business activities. This week’s decision to set up two lakh such multi-modal primary credit societies in agriculture, fisheries and dairy sectors over next five years would be an ice-breaker given that they can be carved out into sustainable companies and help reach out to last man standing. These new enterprises would help spread the cooperatives to 1.6 lakh panchayats without primary agriculture credit societies and two lakh villages or clusters without dairy linkages. Multi-ministerial coordination, phasing out overlap of infrastructure and judicious utilization of meagre resources making the new age cooperatives as enterprises for different products and services marks shift in economic pendulum. Harvard bred economists like Dr Manmohan Singh, Montek Singh Ahluwalia or Palaniappan Chidambaram had never believed that cooperatives and rural economic activity could be a game changer. These market and corporate protagonists may actually be irked by the policy shift relating to cooperatives. But, there’s no point in making them believe that cooperatives can deliver big time at grassroots. In fact these ‘highly respected western educated minds’ made fun of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s ‘Antyodaya’ anna yojana to feed the perpetually hungry poor people in India’s hinterlands. Their tribe had scoffed at the very thought of taking economic activity to villages in the spirit of anthyodaya as propagated by philosophers – thinkers, Dattopanth Thengdi and Deendayal Upadhyaya. Most significant in the entire strategy to revitalize cooperatives was to rope in successful companies like National Dairy Development Board and National Fisheries Development Board (NFDB) in bringing about sustainable change in the way cooperatives operate on ground zero. Their experience, expertise and reach would only help evolving sustainable grassroots enterprises in cooperatives in the new age. The new policy envisages bringing over 25 business activities under the roof of new age cooperatives. From cooking gas to petroleum products, food grains, fertilizers to seeds, fair price shops to community irrigation have been enlisted as business activities of these cooperatives hitherto segregated under either dairy development or spread of credit. While the new cooperatives policy is yet to take complete shape, setting up a dedicated multi-state enterprise to push grass roots products and services into export markets is yet another milestone in the policy shift heralded by the government. Several countries in Europe like France, Germany; Australia, Canada and Japan have sustainable cooperative models especially catering these countries exports basket. From banking, finance, insurance, pension funds, dairy to agricultural products and services, cooperatives have been the vehicles in these countries exports and domestic consumption. As per World Cooperatives Monitor of 2020, just the top 300 enterprises in this sector account for a whopping US $ 2.146 trillion economic activity. Cooperatives globally provide work opportunities to about 10 per cent of total employed personnel. If one were to go by figures of International Cooperatives Alliance, three million enterprises have over 12 per cent humanity as their stakeholders. A billion members of these cooperatives is what translates to large chunk of economic activity and trade is many countries. In the transformative shift that cooperatives are expected to undergo, a few riders are what matter the most. Hand holding and facilitation by creating conducive environment is what government’s role should be limited to. Allowing them to make most of the opportunities in rural India is what the bureaucracy will have to do. Strangling these new age enterprises with politicians or bureaucrats may not work. Past experiences cannot be forgotten in a hurry. Let’s not ignore what happened to IFFCO. There were several attempts by different governments to effectively make it a state-run enterprise by default. Resistance put up by then Fertilizers minister Ram Vilas Paswan to cut IFFCO’s umbilical cord with the government when the cooperative enterprise made desperate attempt to return the government’s paid up capital cannot be set aside. While IFFCO managed to retain its core cooperative

Business Leadership Policy

688

A responsible budget sans fiscal profligacy!

All inclusive growth strategy is the foundation to an independent developed economy and ready Bharat to play a larger global role K.A.Badarinath Bharat’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented a responsible budget on behalf of the BJP-led government on Wednesday. It is on expected lines. Conservative in content and spirit, but the budget for 2023 – 24 has grand vision for taking Bharat to big boys club globally. It lays the foundation for Bharat’s centennial run in 2047 by the time it seeks to evolve as an independent, inclusive and developed economy that is sustainable. The Rs 45 lakh crore budget swan song is to best utilize the ‘amrit kaal’, intervening 25-years to get there and get big. It’s in continuation of the Bharat@100 line given in both the Presidential speech and pre-budget economic survey on Tuesday. Women’s empowerment, skilling our vast human resource, expansion of our tourism industry and achieving green growth as areas that have been identified in the grand vision presented for 2047. Seven priorities laid-out by Narendra Modi government in the budget point to reshaping Bharat’s economic and development paradigm. She gave the budget civilizational connect by christening these priorities as ‘saptarishis’ that guided this country for millennia. Nirmala Sitharaman who has now turned a veteran with her fifth budget presentation, tenth for the Narendra Modi government did not lose on basics. She pushed peddle hard staying the course on fiscal consolidation and not going for the easy option of ‘reckless spending’ or profligacy, hall mark of a government that faces polls in a year or so. On most parameters like fiscal deficit pruning it to 6.4 per cent in next financial year and 4.5 per cent by 2025-26 has been projected. Keeping the jobs-led green growth on track at 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 and achieve double digit expansion in medium term is what the government aspires to achieve. Even for current fiscal, the government managed to keep the deficit at 6.4 per cent on strength of tax revenues and expanded the spending to Rs 41.9 lakh crore. Grand standing on global vision and fiscal prudence did not mean that Prime Minister Modi or his protégé Sitharaman lost out on facing Lok Sabha elections in 2024 preceded by assembly elections in seven states this year. Jobs and environmentally sustainable growth was articulated by Sitharaman in the backdrop of ‘rozgar melas’ that Modi has been holding last six months giving out appointment letters to thousands of first time work seekers. Vocal middle-class voters that have been main stray of this government also got their due especially the honest taxpayers with across the board tax concessions, remissions and exemptions with limits rejigged. In the process, Nirmala Sitharaman had to forego Rs 35,000 crore revenue that the government could afford, given the buoyancy in tax mop up. From economic management side, this would spur further demand for goods and services having multiplier effect on growth impulses. But, opposition political formations are bound to criticize the last full budget of this government in present term as ‘election oriented’. Opening line of the budget speech itself was strong on political messaging as it enlisted youth, women, farmers, backward classes, scheduled castes, tribes and economically weaker sections to be targeted in making Bharat’s economy ‘inclusive’, open and prosperous. Budget is the third instance when the government chose to present its report card of nine years in governance. Nirmala Sitharaman’s numbers were impressive at 11.7 crore households getting toilets, 9.6 crore cooking gas connections, 220 crore Covid vaccinations for 102 crore persons, 47.8 crore jan dhan yojana bank accounts, 44.6 crore getting insurance cover and 11.4 crore farmers getting cash support of Rs 2.2 lakh crore. Not just addressing the voters’ class, Nirmala Sitharaman managed to keep the industry and markets trigger positive. Two big decisions that have had positivity include 33 per cent increase in infrastructure investment at a whopping Rs 10 lakh crore in 2023-24, way above Rs 7.3 lakh crore in current fiscal. This is three times what was possible in 2019-20. If one were to take the grants given to support capital assets in states, capital expenditure moves up to Rs 13.7 lakh crore translating to 4.5 per cent of GDP. Capital outlay of Rs 2.4 lakh crores to railways, Rs 75,000 crore to developing critical transport infrastructure and logistics is an addition. Second trigger was that most consumers across tax brackets got relief thereby allowing extra money for investment or purchases. Thirdly, the government managed to keep its public finances in order without making any major demand on industry through corporate taxes. Modi government’s budget also makes sincere attempt at building confidence in populace at large and swell with pride in their Bharat’s citizenship especially while making out a case for momentous G-20 Presidency and economic surge as fastest growing global economy. Formalization and digitization are factors that would be pushed by the government thereby weeding out corruption in government schemes and shrinking the informal economy. For instance, digital payments led to 7400 crore transactions valued at Rs 126 lakh crore in 2022 alone. Jobs in formal sector have also grown and this reflects in EPFO membership that swelled to 27 crore. Agriculture as a big priority is no surprise and shift to millets based natural farming is a big idea that government has sold through the budget. ‘Shri Anna’, an indic name for millets like Jowar, Ragi, Bajra, Kuttu, Ramdana, Kangni, Kutki, Kodo, Cheena and Sama, resonates as an initiative to make Bharat a global hub for these wholesome nutritious grains. Another significant shift is taking economic growth on green pathway. Apart from the dedicated hydrogen mission, Rs 35,000 crore was set aside to enable energy transition from carbon fuels, green credits, 500 waste to wealth projects with Rs 10,000 crore investment and renewable energy evacuation from Ladakh supported through budget resources of Rs 8300 crore. Skills development got a new heft in its 4.0 version with 47 lakh youth getting trained for taking up jobs

Leadership Media Policy World

766

‘Bharat to be a developed nation by 2047’

25-year roadmap to get there may be unveiled even as BJP-led Narendra Modi juggernaut gets ready to rollout seeking a third term K.A.Badarinath Twenty five years roadmap for turning Bharat into a modern, independent and developed economy with a large say in global affairs is the common theme that runs through both Presidential address at the start of Parliament’s budget session and economic survey for 2022-23. Both President Draupadi Murmu and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did the honours in the colonial era Parliament building as they reflected Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s resolve to roll out firm plans for Bharat in ‘Amrit Kaal’ spread over to 2047. Evolving a fully self-reliant country sans poverty, prosperous middle class with youth and women at forefront have been envisaged by the Modi government that will allow fulfilling all humanitarian obligations globally. Focus on ‘unity in diversity’ in Presidential address also marks yet another assertion from the government that Bharat will continue to cherish, embellish and groom all minorities by faith, worship and sections of a larger Hindu society. This may perhaps be intended at demolishing a false narrative being constructed by few global outlets that minorities in Bharat are being hounded out or subjected to genocide. The roadmap to achieve the ‘golden future’ may draw inspiration from Bharat’s glorious past, freedom struggle and 1.4 billion people’s resolve. This is the line pursued by Modi government as it readies to draw curtains on ‘amrit mahotsav’ that marks 75-years of Bharat’s independence after having pushed back colonial occupiers. Presidential address and economic survey fine print that outlines the blue print for a ‘developed country’ is nothing short of a grand stand vision for Bharat joining the big boys globally as a developed nation. Both the documents proudly declare Bharat as fifth largest economy that would expand to $ 3.5 trillion in two months. The federal budget to be presented on Wednesday by Nirmala Sitharaman may provide more clues or offer different specs to attaining the exulted status of a developed economy. Economic survey has already talked about achieving 10 – 12 nominal GDP growth in medium term as a commitment and objective to taking India big on world map as second or third largest economic powerhouse. Both Presidential address and the survey simultaneously articulated the nine years report card of Narendra Modi government’s performance across sectors. Given that BJP-led ruling alliance will have to face the electorate in May – June 2024 seeking a third term, this report card serves as a ready reckoner of what has been done during last nine odd years. Similarity does not end here. Presidential address lists out the government’s achievements in socio-economic sectors thereby improving people’s lives. Concomitantly, the survey provides a lengthy list of economic reforms and fundamental change in structural governance brought in by the Modi government. Bringing transparency and openness into public life may be yet another theme point apart from weeding out corruption at different levels. Corruption is the big plank on which BJP-led Hindu centric formation assumed power with complete majority for first time in 2014. On the reforms front, both President Murmu and Finance Minister Sitharaman have listed Goods and Services Tax (GST) as a big success story in tax reforms. While the states still have issues on GST, revenue sharing formula and several hurdles in ending the fake bills, the reform is definitely a game changer given that multitude of taxes have been phased out. Economic survey for the first time introduced a complete assessment of how peoples live changed owing to improvement in social sector indices. On the other hand, President Murmu reeled out figures to reflect the on-ground change brought about. For instance, in digitized economy, Bharat has reported Rs three lakh crore worth transactions on the e-market place. Similarly, over Rs 27 lakh crore have got transferred into bank accounts of the beneficiaries in 300-odd schemes through direct benefit transfers. Over 50 crore people have been treated under Ayushman Bharat scheme and accessed affordable medicines from 9000 jan aushadi kendras.This led to saving of over Rs 80,000 crore that could have been forked out by people on health treatment. Over 7.5 crore households have got access to tap water. Under what started as an anti-Covid 19 drive over Rs 3.5 lakh crore worth food grains were provided to the poor and needy. Rs 2.25 lakh crore distributed as support to farmers. Out of this, Rs 50,000 crore has gone to women farmers alone.Over 36,000 hamlets of tribals have virtually been adopted under a PM’s scheme. 500 blocks seem to have got a facelift as ‘aspirational’ campaigns. Over nine crore women have benefited through self help groups while 70 per cent of small borrowers from banks were women. President’s address provided another 100 such data points to support the Modi government’s articulation on bringing about ‘transformational shift’ in people’s lives. This also makes us believe that quietly, Modi government is getting into election mode especially after the two days national executive committee meetings of BJP held in New Delhi. On the global front, Modi government may speak on two issues prominently as a sovereign outfit and as president of G-20 as well as SCO. A peek into tomorrow’s budget may provide more clues to Modi’s big vision statement.

Fact Sheet

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Explainer:India’s energy security

In the last few decades, nation states have become increasingly aware of the limited resources which surround them and have formulated pointed strategies to ensure they have sufficient energy resources to keep their economy running. In the last year, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deepened, global supply chains of raw energy material have been put under the scanner. Several countries have imposed full or partial bans on Russian oil and gas while some have increased the intake of these Russian materials owing to discounted prices. The West, specially, the US, EU and other NATO countries have been urging other nations, like India to cut trade ties with Russia and to reduce their dependence on Russian crude oil and gas. In this backdrop, as data suggests, India must ensure its energy needs are met timely to sustain its economic growth and accelerate social progress and development. It is essential to analyse the energy requirements of India vis-a-vis the supply of energy raw materials and how India continues to diversify its energy supply. As India becomes the third biggest importer of crude oil from Russia, it is imperative for other nation states to holistically view the Indian energy demand patterns and its production.

Business Policy

604

Zero Tolerance Towards Corruption

Congress culture of institutionalized corruption that seeped into other political formations must end. Rising above corruption is real tribute to freedom fighters as Bharat enters a new era @75. K.A.Badarinath When Enforcement Directorate raided Trinamool Congress leader Partha Chatterjee and his associate Arpita, there was hue and cry debunking the move as ‘political coercion’ against Mamta Banerjee’s government in West Bengal. Trunks full of cash, jewelry, property documents found from two flats in South West Kolkata and Belghoria blunted the opposition tirade against Narendra Modi government of using Enforcement Directorate as a political utility tool. TMC’s undeclared second in command Partha Chatterjee was audacious enough to claim that he had nothing to do with proceeds of school jobs scam parked in Arpita’s flats. Arpita also denies knowledge of this treasure trove that has turned out to be a billion dollar question for the enforcement sleuths. Conveniently enough, TMC supremo Mamta Banerjee disowned Partha and refused to take his calls in wee hours thereby making a desperate attempt to wash her hands off the scam or own up responsibility. The drama that unfolded post-cam drama last two weeks point to criminal collapse of governance structures in West Bengal and institutionalization of corruption that’s practiced with no remorse whatsoever. Should Mamta Banerjee not own up and offer a more rational explanation for using primary schools to fill in the party leaders’ coffers In the first place, the school jobs scam investigation got underway owing to hard work put in by enforcement officials in sync with a directive from the Kolkata High Court based on an in-depth analysis and findings of a high powered committee. So, the first argument that Modi went after his political rivals may not stand. Elected representatives’ brazenness to force youngsters to cough up bribes is rather unnerving. Manipulation of merit sheets, in teachers and personnel recruitment in schools reeks of a system that collapsed during previous communist rule. This system has conveniently been used by TMC political machinery and perfected for illegal gains. Second salvo against Modi government was fired by the Shiv Sena that lost out in Maharastra power slugfest owing to vertical spit in the party run by Uddav Thakarey. When Enforcement officials took custody of Sanjay Raut on charges of money laundering along with Wadhawans, Shiv Sena cried foul and ‘political vendetta’ to finish the Sena. Corruption and Shiv Sena were never two entities in the latter’s growth under Balasaheb and now Uddav Thakarey. Sena may have grudge against BJP for outwitting it in electoral machinations and managing political equations. Core question here is whether it can defend its leaders that have seeped themselves in charges of money laundering with select businessmen? Is investigation into a case of money laundering by Enforcement Directorate an illegal and politically motivated operation? Does Sena have plausible explanation for the laundering charges against its biggies? Whose liquid cash was lying in Sanjay Rout’s place? Thankfully, till now he has not dis-owned the retrieved cash like his TMC counterpart Partha Chatterjee? Third case in point is the huge cash chest recovered from three Jharkhand MLAs of Congress at Howrah by Kolkata Police. Well, are these public representatives available for sale is the moot question? Interestingly enough, the tipoff on cash was passed on to TMC by the JMM political leadership and both seem to have sensed an opportunity to settle their political scores with Congress in Jharkhand as well as West Bengal. In the process, what happened is that murky side of Congress culture bereft of values got exposed. It’s rather laughable that Congress leadership suspended these MLAs instantly ‘for anti-party activities’. But then, who would hold the Congress leadership to account for having bred a culture of corruption post-independence to benefit a few close buddies of the party’s ‘first family’? Can one forget umpteen numbers of scandals that tumbled out of Congress cupboard especially during two terms of United Progressive Alliance government at centre? Even today, the Congress first family is under scrutiny of Enforcement Directorate on charges of money laundering through trusts and corporate entities that own National Herald. Case of Satyendar Jain, an AAP minister in-charge of party’s affairs in Punjab is rather very interesting. Has Enforcement Directorate perpetuated a crime by probing his alleged money laundering activities? Acquiring assets that are disproportionate to his known sources of income is a very serious charge against Satyendar Jain on which the Enforcement sleuths have filed a first information report. Gold coins and cash retrieved from Jain and his associates may be dismissed by the opposition parties as part of BJP and NDA vendetta against its political rivals. But then, what’s the source of these funds or assets is the key question? AAP, as a party assumed power on an anti-corruption platform about ten years ago. They were given charge of Punjab with a thumping mandate and in a week after the swearing in, the state’s health minister had to be forced out. Sadly enough, top leaders getting netted in laundering cases or corruption is anti-thesis of what Kejriwal’s fledgling formation had promised in initial years. It’s a double edged sword on which anti-corruption agencies work. In their campaigns against well-oiled machinery of corrupt uncouth individuals, parties and leaders, they are bound to face both bouquets and brickbats from ruling as well as opposition parties. They may have to live with these charges and counter-charges of favouring one or other individual or party. Zero tolerance to corruption – both political and business linked – should be the state policy unlike Congress regimes of the past that institutionalized irregularities and murky deals with all impunity. None can be above corruption. Probity in public life is what Mahatma prescribed and that’s precisely why he recommended disbanding the Congress which evolved as a pre-independence political platform of leaders with different ideologies. Evolving a self-governance model sans corruption will be the biggest tribute to freedom fighters that liberated Bharat from stranglehold of imperialist forces. (The author is Director & Chief Executive of

Business Policy World

669

Economic Divergence Unfolds

India has emerged as fastest growing economy with 8.7 per cent surge while China struggled to stay afloat with $ 5.5 trillion package K.A.Badarinath It’s a tale in contrast. The two countries have always been viewed as competitors to gain global footprint, acceptability and reach. Presently, the two nations in question are going through a differential economic curve that depicts a picture in contrast. Without second guess, one would easily make out that it’s the economic story of China and India that are unfolding differently in the backdrop of a huge crisis in Eastern Europe and Baltic region, rise in commodity prices leading to huge inflationary pressures and thereby tightening of money policy by central banks. The humungous fiscal stimulus package announced by President Xi Jinping’s administration indicates that not everything is going right for China’s economy that’s in complete control of the Communist Party of China, its minions and the oligarchs. Protracted lockdowns in various cities of China owing to Covid 19 pandemic has pushed the dragon country’s economy into an abyss. While it struggles to stay afloat with positive growth, China has lost its exalted position as the fastest growing country. President Xi, cabinet, state council and CPC decision to pump prime the economy speaks volumes on the crisis that has rattled the world’s second largest economy. Ukraine war, disruption in its supply chains and resultant slide in manufacturing growth has led to rampant pink slips and loss of livelihoods. Bloomberg’s back of the envelope calculation put the fiscal stimulus at $ 5.3 trillion that President Xi’s communist administration has announced. From deep tax rebates, cheap loans, withdrawal of restrictions on automobiles buying to booster dose for e-platform companies, China seems to be trying every trick to get back the growth mojo. Already, Chinese monetary authorities and its central bank seem to have reconciled to the challenge faced in achieving downwardly revised growth of 5.5 per cent in 2022. Investment bank UBS forecast of 4.2 – 3 per cent growth in China has not only unnerved President Xi who’s preparing for third term coronation in September. Earlier this week, J.P.Morgan had also cut the China growth forecast to 3.7 per cent from earlier 4.2 per cent. There seems to be no easy way out of economic bind in which China has landed itself especially after the Communist regime went on a war path against the growth drivers like the big home grown technology companies and platform enterprises. David Qu, Bloomberg’s China economist may be right when he says that Chinese central bank has now only played a supportive role. And, the government’s fiscal measures had more space to support growth in the $ 17 trillion Chinese economy. Implementing the fiscal package may also pose a big problem as there’s reported resistance from states and local governments whose finances are already fragile, borrowings touching the roof and very little elbow room to undertake development projects. Otherwise, there’s no plausible reason for Xi’s administration to send dedicated task forces to 12 provinces to realize the actual economic package. In contrast, Indian that’s celebrating eight years of BJP government in office is on a virtual high. Prime Minister Modi’s decisive leadership to deliver on economic and development front has worked. India has emerged as the fastest growing economy globally displacing China with 8.7 per cent GDP uptick in fiscal year ending April 2022. Incidentally, this is the highest growth posted by India in 22 years after 8.8 per cent reported in 2000. India with its $ 3 trillion economy is making waves globally with new partnerships and markets thereby creating new work opportunities for the aspiring youth. Having navigated the two difficult waves of Covid 19 pandemic relatively unscathed, India’s reading along with its partners like Australia, Japan and US to displace China with alternative and sustainable supply Chains. If one were to go by chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran, even in current fiscal, India’s economic growth has been estimated at 7.5 – 8 per cent. At this juncture, these projections may look daunting due to slide reported in January – March 2022 at 4.1 per cent. Economic resilience back home and deft management is what one can bank upon to realize this expansion. Core sector performance of 8.6 per cent spread over eight infrastructure areas during April 2022 provides enough optimism for maintaining the growth momentum in the Indian context. Given the government’s continued commitment to invest over Rs 750,000 crore across infrastructure areas, India will continue to be the brightest spot in the global growth sweepstakes. Given the hard work put in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government in last eight years, retaining the tag of fastest growing economy should be celebrated as a big leap forward. This does not mean that Indian leadership should be carried away by the euphoria and not recognize the challenges like crude prices touching $ 120 as against budgeted $ 75 per barrel apart from surge in other commodities prices. If data available with credible agencies like International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are anything to go by, then India may be the only large economy that would post GDP growth beyond 7 per cent till 2025. Creating jobs for millions of unskilled, semi-skilled and low-end earners in rural hinterlands may have to be the focus while Prime Minister Modi’s government goes about methodically in economic integration to evolve India as a unified behemoth. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi.)

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