Policy Security Technology

India’s battle in the Skies: The Fight Against Pakistan’s Terror Drones

RahulPAWA | @imrahulpawa Recently, skies over India have become a battleground for an insidious new threat – terror drones. The severity of this menace was laid bare once again yesterday when Indian security forces detected a drone that had violated Indian airspace and was flying in from Pakistan near the international border in Gurdaspur district of the north Indian state of Punjab. In a swift retaliatory response, the Indian security forces fired upon the drone, causing it to retreat towards Pakistan. This incident follows a similar pattern from the previous month, where Indian security forces discovered a high-end Chinese-made DJI Matrice 300 RTK quadcopter in Gurdaspur that had infiltrated from Pakistan. The discovery of this sophisticated drone, valued at a staggering USD $13,700, is a sobering reminder of the growing use of advanced aerial technology by malevolent actors across borders. Moreover, not only Punjab has seen Pakistan-operated terror drones in violation of Indian airspace. Earlier this year, a drone was shot down in Rajasthan’s Sriganganagar sector. Indian security forces recovered five packages of narcotics from the wreckage of that drone. In another incident of illegal cross-border drone droppings from November last year in Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) Samba district. The police recovered two unassembled improvised explosive devices with detonators, two Chinese-made pistols, four magazines loaded with 60 rounds, and half a million Indian rupees that were dropped by a terror drone controlled from Pakistan. With this recent uptick in Pakistan’s unmanned aerial vehicle activity, it is becoming incessantly clear that the incidents involving their terror drones in India are not isolated occurrences; rather, they represent a calculated and deliberate escalation of modern-day asymmetrical warfare aimed at undermining India’s security. The usage of such drones by Pakistan for activities like hostile reconnaissance, drug and weapon trafficking, and transporting explosives and ammunition into India has increased four times in Punjab alone since the beginning of this year. As a countermeasure, Indian security forces stationed along the international border states have ramped up their vigilance and intercepted more than a dozen terror drones from Pakistan in the past few weeks alone. It is no secret that Pakistan is deeply involved in the insidious practice of narco-terrorism. This is not mere hearsay but a widely acknowledged fact, confirmed by international organisations such as the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL), the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (EUROPOL), and prominent forums such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP+). The FATF’s demand last year for Pakistan to demonstrate concrete action against terrorism was a reminder of its precarious position on the FATF grey list. Recent scrutiny of Pakistan’s government-sponsored terrorism has also been directed towards its bid to revive a 2019 bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). There were serious concerns over using bailout funds, given Pakistan’s history of fostering secessionism and terrorism in India. Pakistan’s tumultuous past has been characterised by widespread criticism of its army’s rampant corruption, the government’s lack of developmental policies, and a blatant disregard for its citizen’s welfare. The country has been notorious for its efforts to cultivate jihadist extremism and sponsor terrorism against India, which has ultimately resulted in its downfall. Subsequently, a classic case study for the world to see as an example of how states that harbour and endorse extremism, sponsor terrorism, and lack coherent plans for their people’s growth and development are bound to fail. Concerningly, the increasing and escalating use of terror drones launched from Pakistan against India epitomises the mindset of the country’s deep state and army. Alarmingly, Pakistan seems to have decided to persist in diverting its valuable resources towards supporting terror, thereby continuing to nurture the monster of terrorism that it created, even though it has already bankrupted the country. By resorting to narco-terrorism, small arms smuggling and financing of terrorism by the use of terror drones with an aspiration to destabilise India, especially its youth. Pakistan is exposing itself to further repercussions at the hands of an able Indian national security apparatus and extreme scrutiny from its financial backers, organisations, unions and nations that greatly benefit it. Pakistan has active loans from international lending agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), among others. It is also a partner in the Paris Pact Initiative, which seeks to combat opiate trafficking, consumption and related issues along the Afghan trafficking routes. Pakistan benefits from Europe’s preferential tariff programmes, including the GSP+. However, Pakistan’s blatant support for organised crime, extremism and terrorism has seriously undermined its credibility. As a result, these agencies and entities have imposed new stringent rectification requirements on Pakistan’s support for terrorism and extremism to maintain their support. The country’s unwavering commitment to pursuing this treacherous path endangers regional stability and poses a significant threat to global peace and security. At this crucial juncture, the international community must recognise the gravity and implications of Pakistan’s “terror drones” deployment against India. Moreover, global leaders must take note of the nations that endorse and enable Pakistan’s actions. Pakistan’s long-standing ally, the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) led China, which boasts an unbreakable friendship with Pakistan, has become a source of concern. Recent findings of Pakistan-operated terror drones and weaponry recovered in Indian territory offer tangible evidence of Chinese technology, equipment, and weaponry being used for narco-terror and related terrorist activities in India. A considerable proportion of the drones used by Pakistan in cross-border operations in India are supplied by the Chinese firm SZ DJI Technology Co. Ltd. In December 2020, the US government listed DJI on a trade-restricted list due to concerns about its connections to the CPC government. Notably, some of the batteries that power these drones are manufactured by a company based in Karachi, Pakistan. Despite the CPC’s repeated claims of a firm commitment to combat international terrorism, doubts have arisen due to its continued support for Pakistan’s backed

Business Economy Media

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Ajay Banga, right man for the moment

Climate finance, funding private entrepreneurship, rebuilding war-torn Ukraine apart from democratizing World Bank should be priority K.A.Badarinath Ajaypal Singh Banga, nominee of US President Joe Biden to head the multi-lateral World Bank, has his task cut out. Banga may not turn out to be a traditional banker in the sense like many of his predecessors. Nor does he have experience of the US treasury like the present incumbent David Robert Malpass who would complete his term by June end. But Ajay Banga, 63 and son of a former Indian Army officer has all the credentials to flaunt and take charge of the World Bank at a very crucial juncture on geo-political front and the world of finance, banking and markets. God willing and other stakeholders support, Banga will head the bank beginning July 1 this year. Banga does not mince words to say that he’s ‘made in India’ referring to his modest Indian origins. He’s for long been poster boy of the Wall Street and a brilliant mind who as a naturalized US citizen is considered ‘compassionate banker par excellence’ by the democratic White House. His eventful innings at Master Card, Citibank, KFC, Pizza Hut and Nestle provider the requisite experience to lead the World Bank that’s considered ‘a big boys club’ which is either inaccessible or provides limited linkages to the least developed or developing small economies. Democratizing leviathan World Bank may be a daunting task for even Banga who admits to making ‘easy friends’ all over. Biggest challenge may come from the most powerful industrial countries that are unwilling to let go of their strangle hold on this Bretton Woods institution of 1944 vintage which came into being as post-world war workhorse. Turning the World Bank relevant and expanding its footprint in today’s world of development finance sans apprehensions by humanity is a challenge which Banga may have to face once he occupies the corner room. Providing ‘humane development face’ to the institution largely regarded rudderless and seen as one that pushes the countries it engages into unsustainable indebtedness is yet another challenge. Reforms at World Bank that progressed at sluggish pace or rather not taken off must be hastened. These reforms and World Bank’s governance must get aligned to current realities where large developing countries like India emerged with formidable economic strength and on way to achieve $5 trillion size. Both voting rights and actual shareholding in World Bank institutions like IBRD, IDA, MIGA and IFC must reflect the change agent that the organization aspires to achieve lifting itself over narrow powerful coteries. India may not be the only country that would look for better foothold and say in World Bank’s governance. Countries like South Africa and Brazil have periodically aired their grievances. Toughest nut to crack for Banga would be to deny US the veto vote on World Bank board thereby delinking shareholding from vote share. Reformed World Bank should kick off restructuring in the other multilateral organization, International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yet another vintage institution that’s incorrigible and invokes more of fear and scare for countries seeking restructuring support rather than turning a helping hand without hassles. Litmus test for Ajay Banga will be when the war torn Ukraine seeks the support of World Bank and IMF to rebuild itself after having engaged in a conflict with Russia. Non-NATO forces are bound to resist World Bank support to Ukraine that may try and pick up pieces to build a new country. In case Russian side continues to veto proposals for ending the conflict, then rebuilding Ukraine may turn that much difficult as well. Committing World Bank to climate finance for countries that seek to go full throttle in energy transition and address climate change issues is something that Ajay Banga can take lead in. Financing technology development, transfers and providing cost-effective funds to facilitate this transition is something Banga can push big time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi flagged the issue with finance ministers and central bank governors from G-20 group that met in Bengaluru recently. Countries like India will alone need a whopping $2.5 trillion in green finance to achieve national development goals and another $ 10 trillion by 2070 to achieve net zero emissions. Climate finance is huge business that cannot be foregone by World Bank under Ajay Banga. And, he has to gear up to meet the opportunity and challenges to finance greening of economies. Given his inroads into corporate world and private equity markets, evolving IFC as the largest financing avenue for both private sector debt and equity can be enlisted as a priority. (author is Director & Chief Executive at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

Disinformation Fact Sheet Hindus Human Rights Leadership Media Misinformation

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NYT, BBC fall into the pattern

Anti-Hindu, India propaganda unleashed with intent, based on agenda. Their journalistic pursuits come under scrutiny It is not India’s proud tradition of a free press that is at stake. It’s anti-India and anti-Hindu propaganda unleashed with impunity by certain media houses that has taken centre stage. First, it was the BBC that went whole hog against Hindus and India. Now, The New York Times has joined the bandwagon of some international media outlets that have been on campaign mode against India, Hindus and Prime Minister Narendra Modi as their whipping boy. If the NYT editorial board claims of ‘shrill Hindu nationalism’ being the culprit for anything purportedly to have happened to press freedom in India, it’s grossly wrong. The New York Times editorial board comment in its edition of February 12, 2023 on the issue of press freedom in India is completely flawed seeking to set a particular narrative. Sweeping remarks on purported ‘Intimidation, Censorship, Silence or Punishing independent news media in India’ is not factually correct, untrue and a figment of Imagination. India toeing an independent alternative line on issues different from left leaning self-proclaimed liberalists cannot be dubbed as anti-press freedom. Hindus worldwide and in India believe, profess and push for an open, transparent and clean diverse society governed sans corruption, nepotism and exclusivity. India celebrates oneness in its diverse amalgamation of cultures, religious faiths under the Sanatan Dharmic umbrella. Thousands of years of classical civilizational heritage is testimony to Hindus ‘all embracing’ nature and spirit. Not understanding Hindus from their perspective leads to a false notion of ‘shrill nationalism’ kind of narratives that are superficial and erroneous. Neither France based Reporters without Borders (RSF) has the means, bandwidth, methodology or credible data to prove that press freedom was at stake in India. NYT justifying its editorial comment on the questionable World Press Freedom Index report of this organization seems to be fuelled by anti-India and anti-Hindu agenda nursed carefully to meet its objective. If hitting at the famed growth story is the objective, then The New York Times should definitely know that India is invincible and the fake narratives may not work. Leave alone the downgrading India on Press Freedom Index, even the Indian map has been displayed wrongly by the Reporters Without Borders. NYT’s editorial comment is based on reports that depict Kashmir without acknowledging the illegal occupation by Pakistan and China’s occupation of Aksai Chin areas of the North Eastern Indian region. The New York Times editorial backed a BBC documentary that was aggressively anti-Hindu and anti-India in nature. This was called out by British Member of Parliament Bob Blackman who described the BBC documentary as ‘poor journalism, badly researched’. Leave alone The New York Times, even the BBC cannot deny its left wing bias and accept an alternative, independent philosophy of Hindus based on ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, world as one big family. BBC’s left wing bias is known to Britishers. In Margaret Thatcher’s government of ‘80s, several members of the British Parliament brought home this point. Conservative MP Tebbit had aptly described the BBC as ‘stateless person’s broadcasting corporation’. Another conservative MP Peter Bruinvels termed the BBC as ‘Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation’ pointing to Leftists control over the news coverage. To say that press freedom came under attack after 2014 following Narendra Modi’s ascent to be Prime Minister and Hindu nationalist shrillness is again grossly misguided and propagandist owing to a colonial mind-set of extreme nature. Late Prime Minister Smt Indira Gandhi had banned BBC from India coverage on two occasions owing to its ‘biases’ in its earlier documentaries also. Perhaps, NYT may not have a plausible explanation for such a ban in late ‘70s. The BBC was in trouble in India in the early 1970s. Even at that time, the Indian diaspora was outraged by BBC documentaries named Calcutta and Phantom India. Louis Malle directed French documentary mini-series Phantom India painted a biased picture of India by emphasising the underdeveloped regions as opposed to the developing ones. If Press freedom was under attack as propagated by BBC and NYT, how’s it that the editorial in The New York Times was not taken down? Thousands of stories filed by a strong network of foreign media professionals based in India that are critical of the government have hit the wires, newspapers and TV outlets freely each day. So, the charge that India, Hindus and by extension Narendra Modi have suppressed ‘free media’ is only agenda peddling by some media houses.

Disinformation Fact Sheet Insurgency Media Misinformation

668

Brief: Qaumi Insaaf Morcha Protests

The Qaumi Insaaf Morcha has been stationed near the Mohali Chandigarh border since January 7, 2023, in order to raise the issue of Sikh political prisoners who have purportedly fulfilled their sentences but are still incarcerated. The majority of detainees are Sikhs who were imprisoned during the 1980s and 1990s when Pakistan backed terrorism in Punjab was at its peak. The Qaumi Insaaf Morcha called for the nationwide release of all Sikh inmates as one of its demands. Other protestors, some armed with swords were also called in gradually by the group including select ed Nihang Sikhs. The protests eventually grew violent and the violent protesters attacked police officers who had been called to the scene for the maintenance of law and order. As per police statements, tractors were used to dismantle the barriers by the protestors.

Economy Leadership Policy

675

Pakistan flounders, Sri Lanka enlist allies

Virtual isolation of Pakistan makes its economic revival difficult while growing support may quickly get Sri Lanka on path to normalcy K.A.Badarinath It’s the tale of two South Asian economies that continue to provide jitters to analysts and policymakers alike. Pakistan and Sri Lankan economies facing tumult are pictures in contrast. The two Indian neighbours are on the verge of collapse on economic front. The two have also been struggling and desperate to get back on revival mode with very little headway thus far. The course taken by both these countries seems diametrically opposite to deliver what they set out to achieve as uniquely placed Indian Ocean small countries. Sri Lanka with an economic size of $ 84.52 billion has piled up a debt of $ 40 billion from bilateral and multi-lateral sources over last one decade that’s unsustainable. In contrast, Pakistan with a medium sized economy of $ 376.49 billion that had previously grown in double digits is in doldrums with virtually no savior in sight. It’s heading for virtual bankruptcy given that the Islamist country that believes in terrorism as a state instrument has piled up $ 274 billion debt that’s roughly over three fourths of its gross domestic product in January this year. Both the South Asian economies have landed in a big mess and it is their own making. While Sri Lanka’s misdirected reforms pushed the island’s fragile economy into chaos, its political churn and protests over last one year have added to the people’s woes. On the other hand, Pakistan’s unsustainable energy import bill, unserviceable expensive foreign debt stock, lack of investments and revenues coupled with huge spending on its untenable security establishment are clear culprits. Unwritten word is that huge unaccounted spending in exporting terror in particular to Bharat is a big expenditure head with no or rather negative returns. Highest common denomination factor in both cases is China where it pushed both countries into a huge debt trap by design especially the funding of infrastructure projects, belt and roads initiative. As per publicly available data, more than two dozen countries including Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been pushed into unsustainable debt contracts via the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), a pet initiative of President Xi Jingping and Chinese Communist Party. Apart from economic and strategic expansionism of China run by its oligarchy, global headwinds are not in favour of Pakistan and Sri Lanka given the looming recession in Europe and United States in aftermath of protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Metamorphosis of this conflict into a big war cannot be ruled out given that the US and Germany apart from other NATO allies were sending in tanks and major military equipment to support the battered Ukraine. Over 60 per cent consumer price inflation in Sri Lanka has rendered millions of people jobless, without food and shelter. Moving away from traditional agricultural practices to purported organic farming without safety latches or back up plan has boomeranged on this beautiful island nation. The political uncertainty has also destroyed its famed tourism and hospitality industry that’s known globally for being very ‘inviting’. On the other hand, Pakistan that reported over 40 per cent retail inflation in January 2023 has made basic food items like wheat flour, oil, sugar, out of the reach for a large section of its population. Owing to massive corruption in both Pakistani army establishment and political leadership, most food items are either unavailable or retail prices unreasonably doubled or tripled. Hoarders and business cartels have had a field day in both Sri Lanka and Pakistan cashing in on weak political structures and greasing corrupt hands all the way. In this adverse situation loans or cash advances have been hard to come by for both countries. Both countries have burnt the midnight oil to keep their heads afloat. Sri Lanka has some advantage over Pakistan that has no friends in the region barring China. India has taken the lead to provide financing assurances to Sri Lanka if one were to go by external affairs minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to the island nation. In effect, outstanding debt can be paid by Sri Lanka on deferred basis. Also, Colombo can access fresh lines of credit in sync with debt restructuring proposal made by International Monetary Fund in which Bharat is actively involved as representative of South Asia. As an ally, Japan is also bound to follow suit. If these developments go as anticipated, Sri Lanka will be able to access $ 2.9 billion relief package from IMF. But, this will happen only when China as the largest contributor to most expensive debt Sri Lanka has availed agrees. As of now, indications are that China may extract its pound of flesh in terms of lucrative contracts and Colombo agreeing to approve its expansionist tantrums. While Sri Lanka has enlisted support of trusted allies like Bharat, Pakistan has not made any headway so far. Barring Saudi Arabia’s agreement to defer payments on oil imports, Pakistan has not made much progress thus far. Deferred payments proposal for Russian oil has not fructified till now. As per State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country’s reserves have plummeted to $ 5.576 billion as of January 1, 2023. This means there’s every possibility of Pakistan defaulting on its repayments if immediate support is not enlisted. Even after businessman turned Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif buckled and agreed to tough conditions proposed by IMF for $ 6.6 billion bailout package, the multi-lateral lender is yet unconvinced on Pakistan economy’s unsustainability. As on date, IMF has not sent its team for negotiation though Pakistan requested for early conclusion of negotiations. Most significant is that it’s all weather friend and military equipment supplier China has not acceded to Pakistan’s request for deferment of its $ 6.3 billion loans. Only Saudi Arabia has hinted at deferring $ 3 billion repayments for Pakistan that matured in December 2022. Possible collapse of Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies collapse will have larger impact in South and

Fact Sheet

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Explainer:India’s energy security

In the last few decades, nation states have become increasingly aware of the limited resources which surround them and have formulated pointed strategies to ensure they have sufficient energy resources to keep their economy running. In the last year, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deepened, global supply chains of raw energy material have been put under the scanner. Several countries have imposed full or partial bans on Russian oil and gas while some have increased the intake of these Russian materials owing to discounted prices. The West, specially, the US, EU and other NATO countries have been urging other nations, like India to cut trade ties with Russia and to reduce their dependence on Russian crude oil and gas. In this backdrop, as data suggests, India must ensure its energy needs are met timely to sustain its economic growth and accelerate social progress and development. It is essential to analyse the energy requirements of India vis-a-vis the supply of energy raw materials and how India continues to diversify its energy supply. As India becomes the third biggest importer of crude oil from Russia, it is imperative for other nation states to holistically view the Indian energy demand patterns and its production.

Technology

591

Going green from grey!

Green hydrogen is the new energy frontier to conquer. India has the potential to decarbonize its economy, embark on clean journey to future and give tough competition to US and EU K.A.Badarinath Going green on energy front and decarbonizing Indian economy estimated to be US $ three trillion is a gigantic task for any government. Bharat i.e. India will have ‘first mover’ advantage in making a tectonic shift in energy production, consumption and exports. The advantages in moving to green hydrogen from the grey version are too many. Challenges are countless. Indian government’s announcement to set up a dedicated hydrogen mission in the federal budget of 2021-22 attracted the ire of usual sceptics that include the naysayers. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the mission in September 2021post his independence day address from ramparts of the Red Fort not many were willing to get ready for a transformative change in the country’s energy matrix. On Wednesday, the Cabinet’s decision to in hydrogen energy and make an initial investment of Rs 20,000 crore (approximately $ 3 billion) demonstrates Indian government’s readiness to move away from carbon fuels, cut the massive import bill on crude oil and address serious environment sustainability apart from larger climate change issues. If India can take the lead in Conference of Parties (COP) 27 and make decisive push on solar energy in sync with civilizational life styles and tap the huge potential Sun offers, there’s no reason why green energy mission cannot deliver. In September 2022, US democratic administration led by President Joe Biden had decided to pump in US $ 7 billion in green hydrogen hubs to export the gas worth 10 million tonnes by 2030. Similarly, entire European Union has committed US $ 5.2 billion on hydrogen energy to decarbonize the economy in 27-member countries. In this context, India’s decision to increase the green hydrogen through dedicated hubs to five million tonnes, set up 125 megawatts green hydrogen based energy generation capacity and undertake research in this nascent area is forward looking and doable. In the process, the government proposes to reduce its hydrocarbon imports by a whopping Rs. 100,000 crore, mobilize investments worth Rs 800,000 crore and create 600,000 direct and indirect jobs in next seven years. Quickly creating cost competitive electrolysers capacity to produce green hydrogen will be the clincher. Most of public investments by the central government would be to create these capacities. Providing early fiscal and monetary incentives through this green hydrogen hubs and dedicated mission will go a long way in creating green energy economy. Outcomes from this green energy campaign could be enormous. The way our industries produce products, service providers operate, the way we move around or transport goods and changes in energy sector will be huge. Though hydrocarbons based crude, naphtha, gas and coal would continue to be our main stray for energy generation in short term, the tactical shift in this scenario seems inevitable. One big challenge in this shift is developing cutting edge technologies, keeping up the curve and optimizing the costs to derive the best for commercial users in electrolysers to produce hydrogen and its derivatives with multi-fold applications. Second big issue could be making available cost-effective debt and equity funds. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should use the budget to be unveiled on February 1 to set up a dedicated green hydrogen development finance company to take the lead. Indian government may invest about Rs 5000 crore as initial equity capital to mobilize funds from both bilateral and multi-lateral sources, if required. Hydrogen hubs, whether it is pilots or large scale, need not be limited to big corporates like the Reliance or Adanis that have big plans in tapping green energy. Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries Ltd had announced in January 2022 its plans to make a shift to green energy across the entire value chain beginning with 20 GW energy production capacities by 2025. Gautam Adani has not minced words in his investment commitment in green hydrogen technologies, infrastructure and generation capacities after the Independence Day speech of Prime Minister Modi in 2021. Most corporate board rooms in private sector, state-run energy enterprises have already been abuzz with discussions on foray into the green hydrogen as the next energy frontier to be conquered. Third big challenge will be evolve partnerships globally that would not cannibalize Indian green hydrogen ecosystem, know-how and companies. Carefully choosing dependable partners in the international arena that add value to the Indian ecosystem could be another decider. Fourthly, success of this policy framework would be in democratizing the entire value chain with a slice of cake for both small and large companies while the energy start-ups providing the edge. Fifthly, states will have to now jump into the fray and make hay out the ecosystem for green hydrogen as was done in the solar power panels’ capacities, generation projects and the whole chain ending with end-consumers. Sixthly, since India is eyeing a huge export market for its electrolysers, their maintenance and services, a dedicated export promotion mission may have to be mounted. But, the biggest challenge will be to counter below the cost cheaper and low-grade Chinese products that are likely to flood the markets once the dragon country gets some relief from blanket envelope of Covid 19 pandemic. Seventhly, identifying dedicated institutions of excellence to pursue research into the green hydrogen technologies and setting aside funds against deliverables in innovation knowhow should be done concomitantly. Eighthly, data collation and tracking developments in this area internationally on real time basis should be prioritized to keep India above water in this sector. Ninthly, green hydrogen should become an effective instrument to diversify India’s clean energy alternatives that include hydro-electric power, solar energy apart from nuclear power. It’s also time for India to chug ahead with coal sequestration as a diversified enterprise as a green alternative. Tenthly, evolving a healthy mix of both hydrocarbon based energy sources with increasing shift to newer areas like green hydrogen may have to be

Business Media Policy

657

Window of opportunity

Russia’s decision to ban oil exports to G-7, EU& Australia, China battling the Covid 19, India enters the big boys ring with an ace! K.A.Badarinath It’s advantage India. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to ban his country’s oil exports to G-7, European Union and Australia beginning February 1 for five months will open new window of opportunities for India in crude oil, refining, consumption and trade. President Putin’s decree was in response to $ 60 per barrel price cap slapped by these countries and groups as a counter to Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. India neither supported the Russian aggression in Ukraine nor has had aligned with Western forces in imposition of price cap on Russian oil. This equidistance and independent policy not only brought India to the centre of oil trade but also provided an opportunity to peddle peace between warring neighbours, Russia and Ukraine. Given that China has been overwhelmed by Covid 19 leading to economic downturn and thereby hitting its energy consumption, India has emerged the biggest energy partner for Russia. US allies, EU and Australia’s decision not only to impose a price cap on oil imports from Russia but bar their shippers, financiers and insurers from backing energy deals with the country has enraged President Putin. From Indian perspective, Russia has already emerged the biggest exporter of oil with over 1.7 million barrels per day during November 2022. Bloomberg has put this figure at 4 million barrels per day that Russia is supplying to India at ‘deep discount’. Both Russia and India have been mum or refrained from making any comment on the price at which this oil trade is happening. These supplies are bound to increase over next six months given the huge un-utilized refining capacities and opening opportunities for exporting end-use hydrocarbons. Independent advisory Standard & Poor Global analysts estimate that two million barrels per day oil would be available from Russia that may be absorbed by India when Putin’s ban on exports to EU, G-7 and Australia kick in. Over 80 per cent of Indian imports from Russia during November 2022 are Urals grade that are currently traded at $ 54 per barrel, deeply discounted and benchmarked to Brent turning the $ 60 price cap a big mockery. Currently, spot market Brent has been traded at a whopping $ 82 per barrel. Two other Russian crude grades, ESOP and Sokol have been quoted at $ 71 and $ 76 per barrel respectively. For last five months, Indian oil imports from Russia have been on surge and constitute about 23 per cent of total import bill that New Delhi forks out. Ukraine conflict has not limited to changes in the geo-political realignments alone. It has extended big time to trade, investments and economic posturing of different countries that have taken a definitive stand on Russia’s unending campaign in Ukraine. India has consciously distanced itself from block-making against Russia. It cannot be construed as unhindered support to Russia in its aggression in Ukraine. Given its delicate relations with Ukraine, India had been on humanitarian aid drive in the war-torn country rummaged by Russian forces bombing and missile attacks. India also donned the role of a peacenik that was willing to make significant negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine to explore peace opportunities. This independent policy stance may not have appealed to US democratic White House led by President Joe Biden. India’s western partners may have to reconcile to the position that Indian policy formulation cannot be swayed by their own block formations. Apart from opportunity to source cost-effective crude and play peacenik role with Russia, India’s third window to open would be exploiting full potential for trade, investment and economic relations bilaterally. This seems to be the next phase in which India and Russian relations have entered. Given the present proclivities, India and Russia may go miles even as New Delhi repositions itself as the powerhouse to become $ 40 trillion economy by 2047. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a bipartisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Media Policy

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India, a natural Nepal pal

Hands off New Delhi policy towards Kathmandu vis-à-vis expansionist China will work wonders for Prachanda’s regime K.A.Badarinath Nepal is on tumult. As expected, a big chunk of China inspired Maoists and Marxists that failed to co-exist previously have got back to rule the mountain kingdom that have seen about ten swearings-in and out in as many years. Maoist guerrilla Pushpa Kumar Dahal seems to have not learnt bitter lessons of 2017 when he aligned and broke off from Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist – Leninist) led by Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. Thanks to opportunistic political saga unfolding in Nepal, Dahal who’s popularly known as ‘Prachanda’ ditched his latest ally Nepali Congress and returned to CPN – ML for forming a government primarily to assume Prime Ministerial position on Monday. In fact, Dahal represents the oft quoted saying that politics is an art of possibilities played very bold. Dahal seems to have made most of these possibilities to ascend for the third time to become Prime Minister of Nepal in last few years. His key lieutenants led by Deputy General Secretary from the Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist Barsha Man Pun had headed for Beijing even as counting of votes after November 20 elections threw up the possibility of a hung Parliament. While avowed reason was Pun’s ‘illness’, his political engagements with Communist Party of China (CPC) seem to have reportedly led to the breakup of pre-electoral alliance of Nepali Congress – CPN Maoist Centre. It was quickly followed by forging of a new alliance of comrades from all shades and denominations pushed aggressively by CPC. CPN – ML leader K.P.Sharma Oli’s inroads and linkages with CPC leadership also seem to have worked well in pushing the Nepali Congress into opposition space notwithstanding the latter being single largest party with 89 members in 275-strong Parliament. Big question in the melee is whether Dahal aka ‘Prachanda’ have his way to run Nepal’s affairs without being a lacky to China? Dice are cast given that Beijing’s proxy K.P.Sharma Oli would like to take all important political, economic and strategic calls relating to China and India. This uneasy alliance between Prachanda and Oli forged by forces in Beijing may find it difficult to find a working relationship given the bad blood that flew in the earlier government and in run up to the campaign. From India’s perspective, Nepali Congress being out of power may be a big disappointment. But, it will have to find ways to work out a nuanced relationship with the new dispensation that’s bound to assert the China way. In fact, Prachanda with his independent views that are equidistant from both China and India may be the biggest bet. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first global leader to congratulate Prachanda on his appointment as his Nepalese counterpart through a twitter post. Secondly, a hands-off approach towards Nepal which has been the centre of India’s engagement with Kathmandu till date, should continue to guide the civilizational partners. Continuing with the time tested 1925 Indo-Nepal pact in ‘spirit and content’ without interference from third party will be the biggest challenge. Thirdly, India being trusted economic and development partner, should continue to engage with the new Nepali government irrespective of machinations attempted by K.P.Sharma Oli for his masters in Beijing. Fourthly, political uncertainty is bound to continue given the multiple partners in the coalition and the aspirations that they bring to the table rather than the value, ideas and content to the new government. Keeping close tabs on political developments, interest groups and policy matrix will work well for India. Fifthly, Beijing is bound to push itself hard this time round to edge out India and attempt a ‘virtual occupation’ through Belt and Roads Initiative apart from taking control of the country’s hydroelectric power generation assets. More than all that forced DNA sampling of Nepali population is likely to be done ala what is being Tibet as part of its strategic and expansionist thrust. Sixthly, India will have to work overtime to keep even-keeled relations with Nepal that’s been its partner from milk, vegetables to oil needs. More than all that, the two countries’ ‘Sanatan dharmic linkages’ will have to be celebrated and embellished thereby reinforcing the unalienable nature of the two people’s relationships. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is to be believed, Beijing proposes to work with India for steady and sound growth in bilateral relations. In this backdrop, not meddling with India’s civilizational partners like Nepal could work as the starting point. Nepal’s political leadership from across the spectrum will have realize that its interests were intertwined with that of India as an all-weather friend that can work wonders in South Asia. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a bipartisan think tank based in New Delhi)

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Ten point plan to engage with Afghanistan

Taliban may have to sever its links with all terror outfits if development and economic activity has to return. India can play its positive part K.A.Badarinath Afghanistan is in the vortex of terror. If Afghanistan former intelligence chief Rahmatullah Nabil was to be believed the country is housing most terror groups including Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) that have been operating in collaboration and partnership with Islamabad based Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), dreaded spy arm of Pakistan. All of them have had targeted Indian with help of technology and territory to create havoc in India with an intent to create instability. Shifting bases to Afghanistan would not have had happened without Taliban partnership and consent. Fourth aspect to this terror vortex is Islamic State (ISIS) through its affiliate in Khorasan Province have had accentuated the terror activities in South Asia. Given that the caliphate has virtually collapsed both in Iraq and Syria, ISIS seems to shifted bases too with large centrifuge in Afghanistan. Blow hot, blow cold relationships between different groups of ISIS and Taliban have only turned the South Asia peace situation more volatile. Al Qaeda is yet another significant player in Afghanistan that’s going through the churn. Let’s not forget that Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri would not have operated out of Kabul without active partnership with Taliban before the deadly US drone neutralized him. Another angle to this terror vortex is the innovative financing models evolved by these outfits that involve drug trade and money laundering apart from access to drones to undertake targeted operations. When Central Asian intelligence chiefs and security advisors from Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in New Delhi on Tuesday with their Indian counterparts, Afghanistan turning vortex of terror seems to have been analysed at depth. Unless funding channels are cut off, money laundering curbed, drug trade busted and Taliban dissociates itself from outfits of different shades and hues, peace in India’s extended neighbourhood becomes a far cry. Notwithstanding this grim assessment of Afghanistan by the national security advisors and secretaries of security councils, India seems to have taken calculated risk in resuming work on re-building the infrastructure destroyed by United States in the process of its withdrawal. About 20 such projects that were in various stages of implementation and stalled while Taliban took charge of Afghanistan’s governance will be resumed, going by reports. While India does not recognize the Afghanistan government led by the Taliban, its willingness to partner with the country’s people only speaks volumes. While the entire Indian community got driven out of Afghanistan majority of them Sikhs moved out of the country after terror returned following Taliban’s takeover. Barring a few working hands and those keeping guard of Gurudwaras as well as temples, Afghanistan has virtually turned alien to Indians that enthusiastically partnered earlier in the country’s development. Though the ride is bumpy in normalizing relations between Afghanistan’s Taliban and India, economic and development issues would become central to the process that’s painstaking and slow. Even if India moves forward with its development plan for Afghanistan, most intelligence buffs scoff is that New Delhi should not lower its guard anytime soon. First step before resumption of infrastructure projects development, India will have to ensure that Taliban provides a security cover to its engineers, professionals and companies. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that Pakistan will be a mute spectator to India going about methodically to implement stalled Afghanistan projects. Playing foul is in the nature of Pakistan strategists, military establishment and intelligence sleuths that need to be tackled big time. Getting life insurance cover for such an eventuality should be precursor to engagement with Taliban. Thirdly, keeping a tight watch on terror financing in the region would be a big nightmare for the global community having stakes in peace, stability and development of Afghanistan. Fourthly, US President Joe Biden and his security establishment will do well in supporting India’s ‘soft move’ to pursue projects in Afghanistan to generate employment as well as rebuild basic infrastructure. Fifthly, LeT, JeM, ISIS, Al Qaeda and ISI apart from other terror mongers will have to be kept at bay by Taliban if peace and progress has to return to hapless Afghanis. Sixthly, opening trade routes to central Asia will be one way of attracting investments to the country living on crumbs thrown by aid agencies. Seventhly, restoring confidence of Indians especially the large Sikh community to return and live as part of volatile Afghani society is tough but doable way to sustainability. Eighthly, apart from China and Russian diplomatic core, not many have returned to Afghanistan. It can start with India resuming consular operations, flights and connectivity. Ninthly, mobilizing Central Asian neighbours involvement would be in Afghanistan’s interests in development and reviving negligible economic activity in terror torn country. Tenthly, keeping away from ISIS, Pakistani terror outfits and intelligence agencies would work for others also.

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