Disinformation Fact Sheet Hindus Human Rights Leadership Media Misinformation

NYT, BBC fall into the pattern

Anti-Hindu, India propaganda unleashed with intent, based on agenda. Their journalistic pursuits come under scrutiny It is not India’s proud tradition of a free press that is at stake. It’s anti-India and anti-Hindu propaganda unleashed with impunity by certain media houses that has taken centre stage. First, it was the BBC that went whole hog against Hindus and India. Now, The New York Times has joined the bandwagon of some international media outlets that have been on campaign mode against India, Hindus and Prime Minister Narendra Modi as their whipping boy. If the NYT editorial board claims of ‘shrill Hindu nationalism’ being the culprit for anything purportedly to have happened to press freedom in India, it’s grossly wrong. The New York Times editorial board comment in its edition of February 12, 2023 on the issue of press freedom in India is completely flawed seeking to set a particular narrative. Sweeping remarks on purported ‘Intimidation, Censorship, Silence or Punishing independent news media in India’ is not factually correct, untrue and a figment of Imagination. India toeing an independent alternative line on issues different from left leaning self-proclaimed liberalists cannot be dubbed as anti-press freedom. Hindus worldwide and in India believe, profess and push for an open, transparent and clean diverse society governed sans corruption, nepotism and exclusivity. India celebrates oneness in its diverse amalgamation of cultures, religious faiths under the Sanatan Dharmic umbrella. Thousands of years of classical civilizational heritage is testimony to Hindus ‘all embracing’ nature and spirit. Not understanding Hindus from their perspective leads to a false notion of ‘shrill nationalism’ kind of narratives that are superficial and erroneous. Neither France based Reporters without Borders (RSF) has the means, bandwidth, methodology or credible data to prove that press freedom was at stake in India. NYT justifying its editorial comment on the questionable World Press Freedom Index report of this organization seems to be fuelled by anti-India and anti-Hindu agenda nursed carefully to meet its objective. If hitting at the famed growth story is the objective, then The New York Times should definitely know that India is invincible and the fake narratives may not work. Leave alone the downgrading India on Press Freedom Index, even the Indian map has been displayed wrongly by the Reporters Without Borders. NYT’s editorial comment is based on reports that depict Kashmir without acknowledging the illegal occupation by Pakistan and China’s occupation of Aksai Chin areas of the North Eastern Indian region. The New York Times editorial backed a BBC documentary that was aggressively anti-Hindu and anti-India in nature. This was called out by British Member of Parliament Bob Blackman who described the BBC documentary as ‘poor journalism, badly researched’. Leave alone The New York Times, even the BBC cannot deny its left wing bias and accept an alternative, independent philosophy of Hindus based on ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, world as one big family. BBC’s left wing bias is known to Britishers. In Margaret Thatcher’s government of ‘80s, several members of the British Parliament brought home this point. Conservative MP Tebbit had aptly described the BBC as ‘stateless person’s broadcasting corporation’. Another conservative MP Peter Bruinvels termed the BBC as ‘Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation’ pointing to Leftists control over the news coverage. To say that press freedom came under attack after 2014 following Narendra Modi’s ascent to be Prime Minister and Hindu nationalist shrillness is again grossly misguided and propagandist owing to a colonial mind-set of extreme nature. Late Prime Minister Smt Indira Gandhi had banned BBC from India coverage on two occasions owing to its ‘biases’ in its earlier documentaries also. Perhaps, NYT may not have a plausible explanation for such a ban in late ‘70s. The BBC was in trouble in India in the early 1970s. Even at that time, the Indian diaspora was outraged by BBC documentaries named Calcutta and Phantom India. Louis Malle directed French documentary mini-series Phantom India painted a biased picture of India by emphasising the underdeveloped regions as opposed to the developing ones. If Press freedom was under attack as propagated by BBC and NYT, how’s it that the editorial in The New York Times was not taken down? Thousands of stories filed by a strong network of foreign media professionals based in India that are critical of the government have hit the wires, newspapers and TV outlets freely each day. So, the charge that India, Hindus and by extension Narendra Modi have suppressed ‘free media’ is only agenda peddling by some media houses.

Disinformation Fact Sheet Insurgency Media Misinformation

592

Brief: Qaumi Insaaf Morcha Protests

The Qaumi Insaaf Morcha has been stationed near the Mohali Chandigarh border since January 7, 2023, in order to raise the issue of Sikh political prisoners who have purportedly fulfilled their sentences but are still incarcerated. The majority of detainees are Sikhs who were imprisoned during the 1980s and 1990s when Pakistan backed terrorism in Punjab was at its peak. The Qaumi Insaaf Morcha called for the nationwide release of all Sikh inmates as one of its demands. Other protestors, some armed with swords were also called in gradually by the group including select ed Nihang Sikhs. The protests eventually grew violent and the violent protesters attacked police officers who had been called to the scene for the maintenance of law and order. As per police statements, tractors were used to dismantle the barriers by the protestors.

Economy Leadership Policy

586

Pakistan flounders, Sri Lanka enlist allies

Virtual isolation of Pakistan makes its economic revival difficult while growing support may quickly get Sri Lanka on path to normalcy K.A.Badarinath It’s the tale of two South Asian economies that continue to provide jitters to analysts and policymakers alike. Pakistan and Sri Lankan economies facing tumult are pictures in contrast. The two Indian neighbours are on the verge of collapse on economic front. The two have also been struggling and desperate to get back on revival mode with very little headway thus far. The course taken by both these countries seems diametrically opposite to deliver what they set out to achieve as uniquely placed Indian Ocean small countries. Sri Lanka with an economic size of $ 84.52 billion has piled up a debt of $ 40 billion from bilateral and multi-lateral sources over last one decade that’s unsustainable. In contrast, Pakistan with a medium sized economy of $ 376.49 billion that had previously grown in double digits is in doldrums with virtually no savior in sight. It’s heading for virtual bankruptcy given that the Islamist country that believes in terrorism as a state instrument has piled up $ 274 billion debt that’s roughly over three fourths of its gross domestic product in January this year. Both the South Asian economies have landed in a big mess and it is their own making. While Sri Lanka’s misdirected reforms pushed the island’s fragile economy into chaos, its political churn and protests over last one year have added to the people’s woes. On the other hand, Pakistan’s unsustainable energy import bill, unserviceable expensive foreign debt stock, lack of investments and revenues coupled with huge spending on its untenable security establishment are clear culprits. Unwritten word is that huge unaccounted spending in exporting terror in particular to Bharat is a big expenditure head with no or rather negative returns. Highest common denomination factor in both cases is China where it pushed both countries into a huge debt trap by design especially the funding of infrastructure projects, belt and roads initiative. As per publicly available data, more than two dozen countries including Sri Lanka and Pakistan have been pushed into unsustainable debt contracts via the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), a pet initiative of President Xi Jingping and Chinese Communist Party. Apart from economic and strategic expansionism of China run by its oligarchy, global headwinds are not in favour of Pakistan and Sri Lanka given the looming recession in Europe and United States in aftermath of protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Metamorphosis of this conflict into a big war cannot be ruled out given that the US and Germany apart from other NATO allies were sending in tanks and major military equipment to support the battered Ukraine. Over 60 per cent consumer price inflation in Sri Lanka has rendered millions of people jobless, without food and shelter. Moving away from traditional agricultural practices to purported organic farming without safety latches or back up plan has boomeranged on this beautiful island nation. The political uncertainty has also destroyed its famed tourism and hospitality industry that’s known globally for being very ‘inviting’. On the other hand, Pakistan that reported over 40 per cent retail inflation in January 2023 has made basic food items like wheat flour, oil, sugar, out of the reach for a large section of its population. Owing to massive corruption in both Pakistani army establishment and political leadership, most food items are either unavailable or retail prices unreasonably doubled or tripled. Hoarders and business cartels have had a field day in both Sri Lanka and Pakistan cashing in on weak political structures and greasing corrupt hands all the way. In this adverse situation loans or cash advances have been hard to come by for both countries. Both countries have burnt the midnight oil to keep their heads afloat. Sri Lanka has some advantage over Pakistan that has no friends in the region barring China. India has taken the lead to provide financing assurances to Sri Lanka if one were to go by external affairs minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to the island nation. In effect, outstanding debt can be paid by Sri Lanka on deferred basis. Also, Colombo can access fresh lines of credit in sync with debt restructuring proposal made by International Monetary Fund in which Bharat is actively involved as representative of South Asia. As an ally, Japan is also bound to follow suit. If these developments go as anticipated, Sri Lanka will be able to access $ 2.9 billion relief package from IMF. But, this will happen only when China as the largest contributor to most expensive debt Sri Lanka has availed agrees. As of now, indications are that China may extract its pound of flesh in terms of lucrative contracts and Colombo agreeing to approve its expansionist tantrums. While Sri Lanka has enlisted support of trusted allies like Bharat, Pakistan has not made any headway so far. Barring Saudi Arabia’s agreement to defer payments on oil imports, Pakistan has not made much progress thus far. Deferred payments proposal for Russian oil has not fructified till now. As per State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country’s reserves have plummeted to $ 5.576 billion as of January 1, 2023. This means there’s every possibility of Pakistan defaulting on its repayments if immediate support is not enlisted. Even after businessman turned Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif buckled and agreed to tough conditions proposed by IMF for $ 6.6 billion bailout package, the multi-lateral lender is yet unconvinced on Pakistan economy’s unsustainability. As on date, IMF has not sent its team for negotiation though Pakistan requested for early conclusion of negotiations. Most significant is that it’s all weather friend and military equipment supplier China has not acceded to Pakistan’s request for deferment of its $ 6.3 billion loans. Only Saudi Arabia has hinted at deferring $ 3 billion repayments for Pakistan that matured in December 2022. Possible collapse of Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies collapse will have larger impact in South and

Fact Sheet

562

Explainer:India’s energy security

In the last few decades, nation states have become increasingly aware of the limited resources which surround them and have formulated pointed strategies to ensure they have sufficient energy resources to keep their economy running. In the last year, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deepened, global supply chains of raw energy material have been put under the scanner. Several countries have imposed full or partial bans on Russian oil and gas while some have increased the intake of these Russian materials owing to discounted prices. The West, specially, the US, EU and other NATO countries have been urging other nations, like India to cut trade ties with Russia and to reduce their dependence on Russian crude oil and gas. In this backdrop, as data suggests, India must ensure its energy needs are met timely to sustain its economic growth and accelerate social progress and development. It is essential to analyse the energy requirements of India vis-a-vis the supply of energy raw materials and how India continues to diversify its energy supply. As India becomes the third biggest importer of crude oil from Russia, it is imperative for other nation states to holistically view the Indian energy demand patterns and its production.

Technology

520

Going green from grey!

Green hydrogen is the new energy frontier to conquer. India has the potential to decarbonize its economy, embark on clean journey to future and give tough competition to US and EU K.A.Badarinath Going green on energy front and decarbonizing Indian economy estimated to be US $ three trillion is a gigantic task for any government. Bharat i.e. India will have ‘first mover’ advantage in making a tectonic shift in energy production, consumption and exports. The advantages in moving to green hydrogen from the grey version are too many. Challenges are countless. Indian government’s announcement to set up a dedicated hydrogen mission in the federal budget of 2021-22 attracted the ire of usual sceptics that include the naysayers. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the mission in September 2021post his independence day address from ramparts of the Red Fort not many were willing to get ready for a transformative change in the country’s energy matrix. On Wednesday, the Cabinet’s decision to in hydrogen energy and make an initial investment of Rs 20,000 crore (approximately $ 3 billion) demonstrates Indian government’s readiness to move away from carbon fuels, cut the massive import bill on crude oil and address serious environment sustainability apart from larger climate change issues. If India can take the lead in Conference of Parties (COP) 27 and make decisive push on solar energy in sync with civilizational life styles and tap the huge potential Sun offers, there’s no reason why green energy mission cannot deliver. In September 2022, US democratic administration led by President Joe Biden had decided to pump in US $ 7 billion in green hydrogen hubs to export the gas worth 10 million tonnes by 2030. Similarly, entire European Union has committed US $ 5.2 billion on hydrogen energy to decarbonize the economy in 27-member countries. In this context, India’s decision to increase the green hydrogen through dedicated hubs to five million tonnes, set up 125 megawatts green hydrogen based energy generation capacity and undertake research in this nascent area is forward looking and doable. In the process, the government proposes to reduce its hydrocarbon imports by a whopping Rs. 100,000 crore, mobilize investments worth Rs 800,000 crore and create 600,000 direct and indirect jobs in next seven years. Quickly creating cost competitive electrolysers capacity to produce green hydrogen will be the clincher. Most of public investments by the central government would be to create these capacities. Providing early fiscal and monetary incentives through this green hydrogen hubs and dedicated mission will go a long way in creating green energy economy. Outcomes from this green energy campaign could be enormous. The way our industries produce products, service providers operate, the way we move around or transport goods and changes in energy sector will be huge. Though hydrocarbons based crude, naphtha, gas and coal would continue to be our main stray for energy generation in short term, the tactical shift in this scenario seems inevitable. One big challenge in this shift is developing cutting edge technologies, keeping up the curve and optimizing the costs to derive the best for commercial users in electrolysers to produce hydrogen and its derivatives with multi-fold applications. Second big issue could be making available cost-effective debt and equity funds. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should use the budget to be unveiled on February 1 to set up a dedicated green hydrogen development finance company to take the lead. Indian government may invest about Rs 5000 crore as initial equity capital to mobilize funds from both bilateral and multi-lateral sources, if required. Hydrogen hubs, whether it is pilots or large scale, need not be limited to big corporates like the Reliance or Adanis that have big plans in tapping green energy. Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries Ltd had announced in January 2022 its plans to make a shift to green energy across the entire value chain beginning with 20 GW energy production capacities by 2025. Gautam Adani has not minced words in his investment commitment in green hydrogen technologies, infrastructure and generation capacities after the Independence Day speech of Prime Minister Modi in 2021. Most corporate board rooms in private sector, state-run energy enterprises have already been abuzz with discussions on foray into the green hydrogen as the next energy frontier to be conquered. Third big challenge will be evolve partnerships globally that would not cannibalize Indian green hydrogen ecosystem, know-how and companies. Carefully choosing dependable partners in the international arena that add value to the Indian ecosystem could be another decider. Fourthly, success of this policy framework would be in democratizing the entire value chain with a slice of cake for both small and large companies while the energy start-ups providing the edge. Fifthly, states will have to now jump into the fray and make hay out the ecosystem for green hydrogen as was done in the solar power panels’ capacities, generation projects and the whole chain ending with end-consumers. Sixthly, since India is eyeing a huge export market for its electrolysers, their maintenance and services, a dedicated export promotion mission may have to be mounted. But, the biggest challenge will be to counter below the cost cheaper and low-grade Chinese products that are likely to flood the markets once the dragon country gets some relief from blanket envelope of Covid 19 pandemic. Seventhly, identifying dedicated institutions of excellence to pursue research into the green hydrogen technologies and setting aside funds against deliverables in innovation knowhow should be done concomitantly. Eighthly, data collation and tracking developments in this area internationally on real time basis should be prioritized to keep India above water in this sector. Ninthly, green hydrogen should become an effective instrument to diversify India’s clean energy alternatives that include hydro-electric power, solar energy apart from nuclear power. It’s also time for India to chug ahead with coal sequestration as a diversified enterprise as a green alternative. Tenthly, evolving a healthy mix of both hydrocarbon based energy sources with increasing shift to newer areas like green hydrogen may have to be

Business Media Policy

566

Window of opportunity

Russia’s decision to ban oil exports to G-7, EU& Australia, China battling the Covid 19, India enters the big boys ring with an ace! K.A.Badarinath It’s advantage India. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to ban his country’s oil exports to G-7, European Union and Australia beginning February 1 for five months will open new window of opportunities for India in crude oil, refining, consumption and trade. President Putin’s decree was in response to $ 60 per barrel price cap slapped by these countries and groups as a counter to Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. India neither supported the Russian aggression in Ukraine nor has had aligned with Western forces in imposition of price cap on Russian oil. This equidistance and independent policy not only brought India to the centre of oil trade but also provided an opportunity to peddle peace between warring neighbours, Russia and Ukraine. Given that China has been overwhelmed by Covid 19 leading to economic downturn and thereby hitting its energy consumption, India has emerged the biggest energy partner for Russia. US allies, EU and Australia’s decision not only to impose a price cap on oil imports from Russia but bar their shippers, financiers and insurers from backing energy deals with the country has enraged President Putin. From Indian perspective, Russia has already emerged the biggest exporter of oil with over 1.7 million barrels per day during November 2022. Bloomberg has put this figure at 4 million barrels per day that Russia is supplying to India at ‘deep discount’. Both Russia and India have been mum or refrained from making any comment on the price at which this oil trade is happening. These supplies are bound to increase over next six months given the huge un-utilized refining capacities and opening opportunities for exporting end-use hydrocarbons. Independent advisory Standard & Poor Global analysts estimate that two million barrels per day oil would be available from Russia that may be absorbed by India when Putin’s ban on exports to EU, G-7 and Australia kick in. Over 80 per cent of Indian imports from Russia during November 2022 are Urals grade that are currently traded at $ 54 per barrel, deeply discounted and benchmarked to Brent turning the $ 60 price cap a big mockery. Currently, spot market Brent has been traded at a whopping $ 82 per barrel. Two other Russian crude grades, ESOP and Sokol have been quoted at $ 71 and $ 76 per barrel respectively. For last five months, Indian oil imports from Russia have been on surge and constitute about 23 per cent of total import bill that New Delhi forks out. Ukraine conflict has not limited to changes in the geo-political realignments alone. It has extended big time to trade, investments and economic posturing of different countries that have taken a definitive stand on Russia’s unending campaign in Ukraine. India has consciously distanced itself from block-making against Russia. It cannot be construed as unhindered support to Russia in its aggression in Ukraine. Given its delicate relations with Ukraine, India had been on humanitarian aid drive in the war-torn country rummaged by Russian forces bombing and missile attacks. India also donned the role of a peacenik that was willing to make significant negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine to explore peace opportunities. This independent policy stance may not have appealed to US democratic White House led by President Joe Biden. India’s western partners may have to reconcile to the position that Indian policy formulation cannot be swayed by their own block formations. Apart from opportunity to source cost-effective crude and play peacenik role with Russia, India’s third window to open would be exploiting full potential for trade, investment and economic relations bilaterally. This seems to be the next phase in which India and Russian relations have entered. Given the present proclivities, India and Russia may go miles even as New Delhi repositions itself as the powerhouse to become $ 40 trillion economy by 2047. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a bipartisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Media Policy

607

India, a natural Nepal pal

Hands off New Delhi policy towards Kathmandu vis-à-vis expansionist China will work wonders for Prachanda’s regime K.A.Badarinath Nepal is on tumult. As expected, a big chunk of China inspired Maoists and Marxists that failed to co-exist previously have got back to rule the mountain kingdom that have seen about ten swearings-in and out in as many years. Maoist guerrilla Pushpa Kumar Dahal seems to have not learnt bitter lessons of 2017 when he aligned and broke off from Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist – Leninist) led by Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. Thanks to opportunistic political saga unfolding in Nepal, Dahal who’s popularly known as ‘Prachanda’ ditched his latest ally Nepali Congress and returned to CPN – ML for forming a government primarily to assume Prime Ministerial position on Monday. In fact, Dahal represents the oft quoted saying that politics is an art of possibilities played very bold. Dahal seems to have made most of these possibilities to ascend for the third time to become Prime Minister of Nepal in last few years. His key lieutenants led by Deputy General Secretary from the Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist Barsha Man Pun had headed for Beijing even as counting of votes after November 20 elections threw up the possibility of a hung Parliament. While avowed reason was Pun’s ‘illness’, his political engagements with Communist Party of China (CPC) seem to have reportedly led to the breakup of pre-electoral alliance of Nepali Congress – CPN Maoist Centre. It was quickly followed by forging of a new alliance of comrades from all shades and denominations pushed aggressively by CPC. CPN – ML leader K.P.Sharma Oli’s inroads and linkages with CPC leadership also seem to have worked well in pushing the Nepali Congress into opposition space notwithstanding the latter being single largest party with 89 members in 275-strong Parliament. Big question in the melee is whether Dahal aka ‘Prachanda’ have his way to run Nepal’s affairs without being a lacky to China? Dice are cast given that Beijing’s proxy K.P.Sharma Oli would like to take all important political, economic and strategic calls relating to China and India. This uneasy alliance between Prachanda and Oli forged by forces in Beijing may find it difficult to find a working relationship given the bad blood that flew in the earlier government and in run up to the campaign. From India’s perspective, Nepali Congress being out of power may be a big disappointment. But, it will have to find ways to work out a nuanced relationship with the new dispensation that’s bound to assert the China way. In fact, Prachanda with his independent views that are equidistant from both China and India may be the biggest bet. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first global leader to congratulate Prachanda on his appointment as his Nepalese counterpart through a twitter post. Secondly, a hands-off approach towards Nepal which has been the centre of India’s engagement with Kathmandu till date, should continue to guide the civilizational partners. Continuing with the time tested 1925 Indo-Nepal pact in ‘spirit and content’ without interference from third party will be the biggest challenge. Thirdly, India being trusted economic and development partner, should continue to engage with the new Nepali government irrespective of machinations attempted by K.P.Sharma Oli for his masters in Beijing. Fourthly, political uncertainty is bound to continue given the multiple partners in the coalition and the aspirations that they bring to the table rather than the value, ideas and content to the new government. Keeping close tabs on political developments, interest groups and policy matrix will work well for India. Fifthly, Beijing is bound to push itself hard this time round to edge out India and attempt a ‘virtual occupation’ through Belt and Roads Initiative apart from taking control of the country’s hydroelectric power generation assets. More than all that forced DNA sampling of Nepali population is likely to be done ala what is being Tibet as part of its strategic and expansionist thrust. Sixthly, India will have to work overtime to keep even-keeled relations with Nepal that’s been its partner from milk, vegetables to oil needs. More than all that, the two countries’ ‘Sanatan dharmic linkages’ will have to be celebrated and embellished thereby reinforcing the unalienable nature of the two people’s relationships. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is to be believed, Beijing proposes to work with India for steady and sound growth in bilateral relations. In this backdrop, not meddling with India’s civilizational partners like Nepal could work as the starting point. Nepal’s political leadership from across the spectrum will have realize that its interests were intertwined with that of India as an all-weather friend that can work wonders in South Asia. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a bipartisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Business Media Policy

567

Ten point plan to engage with Afghanistan

Taliban may have to sever its links with all terror outfits if development and economic activity has to return. India can play its positive part K.A.Badarinath Afghanistan is in the vortex of terror. If Afghanistan former intelligence chief Rahmatullah Nabil was to be believed the country is housing most terror groups including Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) that have been operating in collaboration and partnership with Islamabad based Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), dreaded spy arm of Pakistan. All of them have had targeted Indian with help of technology and territory to create havoc in India with an intent to create instability. Shifting bases to Afghanistan would not have had happened without Taliban partnership and consent. Fourth aspect to this terror vortex is Islamic State (ISIS) through its affiliate in Khorasan Province have had accentuated the terror activities in South Asia. Given that the caliphate has virtually collapsed both in Iraq and Syria, ISIS seems to shifted bases too with large centrifuge in Afghanistan. Blow hot, blow cold relationships between different groups of ISIS and Taliban have only turned the South Asia peace situation more volatile. Al Qaeda is yet another significant player in Afghanistan that’s going through the churn. Let’s not forget that Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri would not have operated out of Kabul without active partnership with Taliban before the deadly US drone neutralized him. Another angle to this terror vortex is the innovative financing models evolved by these outfits that involve drug trade and money laundering apart from access to drones to undertake targeted operations. When Central Asian intelligence chiefs and security advisors from Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in New Delhi on Tuesday with their Indian counterparts, Afghanistan turning vortex of terror seems to have been analysed at depth. Unless funding channels are cut off, money laundering curbed, drug trade busted and Taliban dissociates itself from outfits of different shades and hues, peace in India’s extended neighbourhood becomes a far cry. Notwithstanding this grim assessment of Afghanistan by the national security advisors and secretaries of security councils, India seems to have taken calculated risk in resuming work on re-building the infrastructure destroyed by United States in the process of its withdrawal. About 20 such projects that were in various stages of implementation and stalled while Taliban took charge of Afghanistan’s governance will be resumed, going by reports. While India does not recognize the Afghanistan government led by the Taliban, its willingness to partner with the country’s people only speaks volumes. While the entire Indian community got driven out of Afghanistan majority of them Sikhs moved out of the country after terror returned following Taliban’s takeover. Barring a few working hands and those keeping guard of Gurudwaras as well as temples, Afghanistan has virtually turned alien to Indians that enthusiastically partnered earlier in the country’s development. Though the ride is bumpy in normalizing relations between Afghanistan’s Taliban and India, economic and development issues would become central to the process that’s painstaking and slow. Even if India moves forward with its development plan for Afghanistan, most intelligence buffs scoff is that New Delhi should not lower its guard anytime soon. First step before resumption of infrastructure projects development, India will have to ensure that Taliban provides a security cover to its engineers, professionals and companies. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that Pakistan will be a mute spectator to India going about methodically to implement stalled Afghanistan projects. Playing foul is in the nature of Pakistan strategists, military establishment and intelligence sleuths that need to be tackled big time. Getting life insurance cover for such an eventuality should be precursor to engagement with Taliban. Thirdly, keeping a tight watch on terror financing in the region would be a big nightmare for the global community having stakes in peace, stability and development of Afghanistan. Fourthly, US President Joe Biden and his security establishment will do well in supporting India’s ‘soft move’ to pursue projects in Afghanistan to generate employment as well as rebuild basic infrastructure. Fifthly, LeT, JeM, ISIS, Al Qaeda and ISI apart from other terror mongers will have to be kept at bay by Taliban if peace and progress has to return to hapless Afghanis. Sixthly, opening trade routes to central Asia will be one way of attracting investments to the country living on crumbs thrown by aid agencies. Seventhly, restoring confidence of Indians especially the large Sikh community to return and live as part of volatile Afghani society is tough but doable way to sustainability. Eighthly, apart from China and Russian diplomatic core, not many have returned to Afghanistan. It can start with India resuming consular operations, flights and connectivity. Ninthly, mobilizing Central Asian neighbours involvement would be in Afghanistan’s interests in development and reviving negligible economic activity in terror torn country. Tenthly, keeping away from ISIS, Pakistani terror outfits and intelligence agencies would work for others also.

Leadership Media

614

China braces to play dirty in Nepal

Delicate political applecart has the potential to throw up a storm given multiple coalition partners, communists &Maoists may go Beijing way! Rohan Giri Himalayan Kingdom Nepal is going through trying times as no single party would enjoy even simple majority in the Parliament following the November 20 elections. Having said this, the five-party alliance led by Nepali Congress Sher Bahadaur Deuba is set to form the next government in the 275 member Nepali House as the five coalition partners began their power sharing formula in the new dispensation. For a stable government to be sustainable, the alliance will have to get 138 of their candidates elected as members. This seems to be within the reach for the coalition in this Hindu majority state – Kingdom. The results and trends indicate that Nepali Congress has emerged as front runner while the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) is at second place. Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Centre) follows it at third position and Nepal Communist Party (Unified Socialist) would have fourth largest block of elected members. There are currently two significant coalitions in the election, one led by Nepali Congress (NC) and the other by the Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist-Leninist). Apart from this, the National Independent Party entered the fray for first time with its own set of candidates. Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist Leninist) made Nepal’s territorial integrity as its campaign call. Its supremo K.P.Oli took upon himself to withstand pressure from purported India pressure. On the other hand, Nepali Congress party included the country’s territorial conflict with China as its rallying point. International concerns on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) were brought to national debate. After a decade-long deadly Maoist insurgency followed by 10 years of political instability, Nepal adopted new constitution in 2015. This election is the second federal and provincial election in Nepal after the enactment of its constitution in September 2015. Last five years of government have been in turmoil and instability owing to bickering and coups of a different variety. Internal power struggles and flipping sides by political leaders defined the instability in Nepal while the country evolved as an exciting full democracy in South Asia with its own unique character. China’s aggression in Nepal through its wolf diplomats and direct involvement in the political overturns bring to fore its expansionist streak. Case in point is the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s state visit to Kathmandu, transfer of the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, and other high-level interactions in the midst of electoral process. This is typical to the Oligarchs driven Chinese Community Party and its general secretary Xi Jinping. During O.P. Sharma’s term as Prime Minister in 2015-16 and 2019-21, Nepal’s engagement with China was elevated to one of strategic partnership. Chinese scholars believed that since the Nepali Congress took reins, the country progressively drifted away from China. Due to United States presence in Nepal and India being natural ally of the Himalayan Kingdom, Chinese strategists have been working overtime to gain full control on the country as was the case with Pakistan. From Indian perspective, Nepali Congress led by Deuba may be the best bet as of now. New Delhi has been a benevolent partner in Nepal’s progress under the monarchy as well as the new democratic state. India’s concern may accentuate in case communist elements within the majority coalition and maoist extremists driven opposition look at realignment to carve out a pro-China political formation and edge out Nepali Congress even after having emerged the largest party. It is undeniable that during KP Oli’s leadership, relations between Nepal and India deteriorated over a number of issues, including the modification of the map of Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani. The roti-beti culture of India and Nepal makes their relationship unique, and the open borders between the two countries provides the facility for citizens to move and manage trade and relationships, especially the Madhesis. During KP Oli’s tenure, he turned to China for supplies, signing a trade and transit treaty that led to the Chinese invasion of Nepali territory. Oli not only attempted to position himself against India to please China but willingly ignored China’s encroachment Nepal territory. India believes in neighbor first policy and Nepal is the immediate neighbor. India has been Nepal’s “firm partner” on the path to peace, progress, and development. This election is important for both Nepal and India to sustain the bilateral ties, cultural and civilizational relations, and geopolitical situation. In this backdrop, China’s mobilization of Nepal’s communist parties may put India’s long-standing relations in a bind. An unholy alliance between Deuba and Oli is being attempted as a way for China to have foothold in the new power structure. Chinese encroachment in the Himalayan state is a challenge for New Delhi as well. Although Nepal elections outcomes are expected to benefit India, it entails strengthening interpersonal links and structurally incorporating Kathmandu into connectivity projects focused on sub-regional trade with India. One would keep fingers crossed as the political slugfest in Nepal unfolds and Chinese dragon breaths down the Himalayan Kingdom’s neck. (Rohan is a journalism graduate from Indian Institute of Mass Communication (IIMC) New Delhi, and Manager Operations at CIHS.)

Guest Column

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Panch tatva philosophy to guide India’s G-20 Presidency

Push for partnerships, hope, harmony and healing. Decisive leadership voices policy against war, conflicts and confrontation Narendra Modi Today, India commences its G20 Presidency. The previous 17 Presidencies of the G20 delivered significant results — for ensuring macro-economic stability, rationalising international taxation, relieving debt-burden on countries, among many other outcomes. We will benefit from these achievements, and build further upon them. However, as India assumes this important mantle, I ask myself — can the G20 go further still? Can we catalyse a fundamental mindset shift, to benefit humanity as a whole? I believe we can. Our mind sets are shaped by our circumstances. Through all of history, humanity lived in scarcity. We fought for limited resources, because our survival depended on denying them to others. Confrontation and competition — between ideas, ideologies and identities — became the norm. Unfortunately, we remain trapped in the same zero-sum mindset even today. We see it when countries fight over territory or resources. We see it when supplies of essential goods are weaponised. We see it when vaccines are hoarded by a few, even as billions remain vulnerable. Some may argue that confrontation and greed are just human nature. I disagree. If humans were inherently selfish, what would explain the lasting appeal of so many spiritual traditions that advocate the fundamental one-ness of us all? One such tradition, popular in India, sees all living beings, and even inanimate things, as composed of the same five basic elements — the panch tatva of earth, water, fire, air and space. Harmony among these elements — within us and between us — is essential for our physical, social and environmental well-being. India’s G20 Presidency will work to promote this universal sense of one-ness. Hence our theme — “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. This is not just a slogan. It takes into account recent changes in human circumstances, which we have collectively failed to appreciate. Today, we have the means to produce enough to meet the basic needs of all people in the world. Today, we do not need to fight for our survival — our era need not be one of war. Indeed, it must not be one! Today, the greatest challenges we face — climate change, terrorism, and pandemics — can be solved not by fighting each other, but only by acting together. Fortunately, today’s technology also gives us the means to address problems on a humanity-wide scale. The massive virtual worlds that we inhabit today demonstrate the scalability of digital technologies. Housing one-sixth of humanity, and with its immense diversity of languages, religions, customs and beliefs, India is a microcosm of the world. With the oldest-known traditions of collective decision-making, India contributes to the foundational DNA of democracy. As the mother of democracy, India’s national consensus is forged not by diktat, but by blending millions of free voices into one harmonious melody. Today, India is the fastest growing large economy. Our citizen-centric governance model takes care of even our most marginalised citizens, while nurturing the creative genius of our talented youth. We have tried to make national development not an exercise in top-down governance, but rather a citizen-led “people’s movement”. We have leveraged technology to create digital public goods that are open, inclusive and interoperable. These have delivered revolutionary progress in fields as varied as social protection, financial inclusion, and electronic payments. For all these reasons, India’s experiences can provide insights for possible global solutions. During our G20 Presidency, we shall present India’s experiences, learnings and models as possible templates for others, particularly the developing world. Our G20 priorities will be shaped in consultation with not just our G20 partners, but also our fellow-travellers in the Global South, whose voice often goes unheard. Our priorities will focus on healing our “One Earth”, creating harmony within our “One Family” and giving hope for our “One Future”. For healing our planet, we will encourage sustainable and environment-friendly lifestyles, based on India’s tradition of trusteeship towards nature. For promoting harmony within the human family, we will seek to depoliticise the global supply of food, fertilisers and medical products, so that geopolitical tensions do not lead to humanitarian crises. As in our own families, those whose needs are the greatest must always be our first concern. For imbuing hope in our future generations, we will encourage an honest conversation among the most powerful countries — on mitigating risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and enhancing global security. India’s G20 agenda will be inclusive, ambitious, action-oriented, and decisive. Let us join together to make India’s G20 Presidency a presidency of healing, harmony and hope. Let us work together to shape a new paradigm — of human-centric globalisation. (author is India’s Prime Minister and the write up coincides with India taking over presidency of G-20)

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