CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Economy Geopolitics Leadership Misinformation Policy Security
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Maldivian turn in the Tide: India’s safety net to China’s debt web

Shift in island nation’s strategic relations to curry favour with Chinese Communist Party bosses is fraught with danger of instability Rahul Pawa Maldives that has historically been a significant beneficiary of Bharat’s Neighbourhood First policy and a proximate maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region, is re-positioning itself from the perspective of defense and security ties with Bharat. This reassessment is direct consequence of actions taken by newly anointed Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, who rose to power advocating an ‘India Out’ campaign. Influenced by the pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stance of former President Abdulla Yameen, President Muizzu has made a decisive move away from the cooperative relationship his predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, maintained with Bharat. This shift became particularly evident with a statement issued on November 18, in which President Muizzu’s office formally requested withdrawal of Indian military personnel from Maldives. This request, signifying a departure from longstanding military cooperation between the two nations was earlier  presented during a meeting with India’s Earth Sciences Minister Kiren Rijiju, who was in attendance at Muizzu’s swearing-in ceremony.  Escalating the situation further, Maldives is now scrutinizing over 100 agreements signed with India during Solih’s tenure, covering areas of defense and security. Mohamed Firuzul Abdul Khaleel, the undersecretary for Public Policy in Presidential Office, disclosed the stationing of 77 Bharatiya military personnel in Maldives, spanning various military assets covered this scrutiny. This reevaluation of ties and November 18 announcement underscore a significant geopolitical shift in the region, marking a potential realignment of Maldives’ foreign policy away from Bharat and marks a tilt towards China. Maldives’ strategic pivot towards China, away from its traditional alignment with Bharat, brings a multitude of vulnerabilities and challenges for the island nation as well. This shift not only strengthens China’s influence in a region historically under Indian sway but also risks exposing the Maldives to economic and political instability. The alignment with China poses significant risk of ensnaring Maldives in a debt trap, akin to Sri Lanka as in the case of Hambantota Port and other infrastructure projects. Considering the Maldivian economy’s heavy reliance on tourism, financial burden of Chinese investments could be unsustainable. Moreover, this shift in foreign policy may lead to internal political strife. Opposition to the ‘China-triggered’ policies and concerns over national sovereignty could ignite domestic unrest, potentially resulting in a divided and unstable political landscape. On international front, moving away from India might strain the Maldives’ relationships with other regional powers and Western allies, who view China’s expanding influence with apprehension. This could lead to lesser foreign aid and support from these nations. The strategic shift under influence of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) represents significant departure from Maldives’ historical relationship with India, a partnership that has been a bedrock of stability and support, instrumental in the nation’s development and security. India’s role has been particularly pivotal during times of crisis, such as the 1988 coup attempt, 2014 water crisis and 2004 tsunami, offering a balance of economic assistance, defense cooperation, and diplomatic support.  However, the new trajectory in favour of China opens Maldives to a host of risks that could have far-reaching consequences for its stability and wellbeing. Possible economic dependency on China, with looming threat of a debt trap, poses a significant danger to the Maldivian economy. This shift might not only leads to internal political instability but also exacerbate the nation’s environmental challenges. Maldives, already grappling with adverse impact of climate change and rising sea levels, may face further environmental degradation due to large-scale Chinese construction projects.  In essence, moving away from India could isolate the Maldives from a historically reliable and benevolent partner, steering it away from the sources of strength and stability that have been crucial for its growth and prosperity. As President Muizzu seeks to establish new geopolitical alignments, the Maldives navigates towards a precarious future. The allure of Chinese economic support, while tempting, carries substantial risks, including the potential loss of traditional allies and internal political turmoil. This strategic pivot could leave the Maldives in a vulnerable position, both economically and geopolitically, with limited room to manoeuvre in an increasingly complex and competitive international arena. The future, as it unfolds, is fraught with uncertainty and potential instability for the Maldives as it navigates these significant geopolitical shifts. (Author is Director – research at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Disinformation Geopolitics Insurgency Misinformation Security
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India’s Firm Message to Canada: Tackle Khalistani Extremism, Preserve Bilateral Ties

Rohan Giri Diplomatic relations between India and Canada have been thrown into a state of disarray after insinuations on possible  Indian involvement in murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a proscribed terrorist identified as a member of Khalistan Tiger Force. These claims by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have ignited tensions, prompting a sharp rebuke from India’s Ambassador to Canada, Sanjay Kumar Verma that criticised Canada for damaging bilateral relations. Verma asserted that the accusations lack substantial evidence and may have been influenced by high-level directions. Allegations of India’s involvement in reported murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistani terrorist who had obtained Canadian citizenship, emerged after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s address in the country’s Parliament on September 18. He had claimed to have “credible evidence that the Indian government assassinated a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.” This serious assertion put a strain on bilateral relations. However, India recognised as a robust and healthy democracy, has no historical record of engaging in such clandestine activities and consistently championed the path of peace both regionally and globally. In an interview to ‘The Globe and Mail’, Indian envoy Sanjay Kumar Verma offered a forceful rebuttal to these allegations chastising Canada for failing to furnish any concrete or pertinent details that would substantiate their accusations. He expressed apprehension regarding the investigation’s integrity, hinting at possibility of high-level interference in investigative proceedings. The accusations triggered significant diplomatic fallout and unilaterally Canada escalated further by suspending an Indian diplomat. Retaliating, India declared a Canadian senior diplomat persona non grata and requested the Canadian government to withdraw a substantial number of its diplomatic staff from India. This diplomatic spat loomed as a potential threat to the broader bilateral engagement between the two countries. Verma scrutinised validity and admissibility of the purported evidence underpinning Canada’s claims, pointing out that diplomatic exchanges were safeguarded by international law and not admissible in a legal context or for public revelation. He called on Canada to explain the methods used to obtain these conversations and raised the possibility that the alleged wiretaps could have involved impersonated voices. India has on multiple occasions drawn attention to its pending extradition requests, which it alleges Canada has consistently overlooked. Following the accusations against India, the Ministry of External Affairs labeled Canada as a “safe haven for terrorists, gangsters, and criminals.” This characterisation is not made lightly; it mirrors the perception of contemporary Canada and has added further tension to the already strained diplomatic relations. The fabric of India-Canada relations has been further frayed by a deeply troubling series of events in Canada. There is a growing wave of hostility, as sacred Hindu sites and the assets of the Indian community have come under repeated attack. This disturbing trend has escalated to a point where the safety of Indian diplomats in Canada is now in jeopardy.  The aftermath of the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar has unleashed a torrent of direct threats and vitriolic hate speech aimed at the Indian diplomatic corps. The atmosphere of intimidation has been starkly illustrated by the appearance of menacing posters throughout Canada. These posters not only advocate for the assassination of Indian officials but audaciously depict them as adversaries of the Canadian state, ratcheting up the diplomatic tension to an alarming degree. This volatile situation casts a shadow over the Indian community in Canada and puts the diplomatic ties between the two nations on a knife-edge. In a comprehensive analysis, as an international think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, raised alarm in its latest report about the escalating threat of Khalistani extremism in Canada, particularly during Prime Minister Trudeau’s administration. The report stressed that this radical movement, bolstered by Pakistani support, has intensified, putting a strain on Canada’s social fabric and its long-standing multicultural values. Ties between Canada and India have deteriorated, attributed in part to Trudeau’s interactions with Khalistani proponents and his unsubstantiated accusations against India. These actions have not only marred Trudeau’s leadership but reflect political influence of Jagmeet Singh, the NDP leader known for his Khalistani linkages and frequent anti-India commentary.  CIHS report warned that the Canadian government’s perceived indifference towards growing Khalistani presence could incentivise separatist sentiments, potentially triggering a secessionist referendum. Such developments threaten Canadian unity and sovereignty.  The think tank underlined the urgency for Canada to repair its diplomatic relations with India. Moreover, it called on Western nations to tackle Khalistani extremism with an unwavering adherence to the rule of law and a commitment to security, human rights, and democratic principles. The response to this issue is critical, the report concludes, as it will significantly shape the future of international relations and the global order. Trudeau has seemingly overlooked these critical issues. The unchecked growth of separatist movements poses a real and significant threat to the security of Canada. It seems he fails to acknowledge the true character of terrorism, which knows no religious or ideological limits. No amount of diplomatic veneer can mask this reality. Historical patterns suggest that the consequences of neglecting such threats often have a way of returning to their origin with compounded force Addressing these challenges with substantive dialogue and addressing the influence of Khalistani factions in Canada is crucial for restoring confidence and strengthening the bilateral relationship. The current diplomatic impasse highlights the importance of adhering to diplomatic norms, international law, and the protection of envoys abroad. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approach, which seems to prioritise internal political advantages over international protocol, reflects a departure from statesmanlike conduct. Such a strategy may jeopardise the diplomatic bond with India and other law-abiding democracies worldwide. (author is manager – operations at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Cyber Security Disinformation Misinformation Policy Security
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Technology Paradox!

Manipulation in technology becomes an effective tool with terrorists, fraudsters and dictates political conversations posing fresh challenges to humanity K.A.Badarinath Technology works weirdly. Human mind behind evolving technologies globally is all the more weird. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a call to undertake research in areas of technology, innovation and development to further socio-economic progress, there were sneers and jeers especially the cynics. Reports appearing in media seek to underline significance of reorienting technology and scientific research to further Bharat’s development and economic prosperity. But, instances of technology manipulation have shaken Bharat’s conscience. Mahdev app is one of several fraudulent platforms that crept into the system and helped the crooks launder money, betting by vulnerable people, spread corrupt practices and bankroll political parties. About 22 such apps and websites were either restricted or banned completely by Bharat’s government this Sunday. Reports quoting Enforcement Directorate documents suggest that Rs 508 crore was paid to Chattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel as kickbacks for facilitating technology driven betting apparently managed and manipulated from Dubai. These funds were to support campaign of Indian National Congress fighting anti-incumbency in legislative assembly elections. Promoting corrupt practices through the instrument of technology is what has come to fore. Weird brains behind crafted technology platforms to further betting and entice vulnerable people with promise of big money may require closer scrutiny. Making conscious attempt to hoodwink law enforcement agencies by harvesting technology to ‘rob’ people of their hard earned money need to be recognized by ‘evolved societies’ that push for big technology foray. It’s not just technology driven software programmed betting apps that wreaked havoc on gullible people in Bharat as was the case with Mahadev App that was largely operated and managed from Dubai by its promoters and were hand in glove with Bhupesh Bhagel government’s bigwigs and ruling party bosses in the state. At a meeting of Thinkers Forum in Karnataka, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently pointed to technology driven apps that were used by fraudsters and speculators to work up or pull down specifistocks, investment instruments apart from drumming up support as well as marketing Ponzi schemes. Genuine investors and savings of hard working people were bound to be lost to unscrupulous elements that manipulated technology to perpetuate financial crimes. Recent cash for questions scam being investigated by an ethics committee of Parliament also have a similar narrative. The accused Member of Parliament from opposition, Trinamool Congress Mahua Moitra apparently passed on her official mail login and passwords to corporate houses. Mail ID of this jet-setting MP were used and abused by corporate houses to steer Parliamentary discussions on issues that possibly relate to them. Dubai was the favourite destination for this MP from where her mail ID was logged in over 45 times by alleged handlers. A sweep of servers access and technology interface for this mail ID revealed the way she operated in conjunction with her corporate masters from whom she reportedly received expensive gifts and unlimited hospitality. Quick spread of artificial intelligence will not only disrupt Bharat’s society like any others, increase in financial crimes driven by technology is a foregone conclusion. Unprecedented advances in computer vision, languages processing, robotics have only complicated the world of money. Fraudsters are bound to have a hay day given issues relating to safety, accountability and transparency of technology driven, artificial intelligence propelled processes that govern the world of finance, banking, insurance, pension funds and markets. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had recently compared dealing with artificial intelligence to emergence of internet or electricity several decades earlier. Rishi Sunak is right when he says that artificial intelligence brought with it fears that’s unparalleled in history of human evolution. Apart from large scale frauds, artificial intelligence and other cutting edge technologies have also brought fears of cyber-attacks, disinformation and it was an effective tool in hands of criminals and terrorists. Though the Bletchley declaration boasted of 29 countries including China and European Union being signatories to an alliance on artificial intelligence, there were enough naysayers especially the technology honchos of Meta and Tesla variety. From simple financial frauds to dictating political conversations, technology has emerged as the biggest threat in the hands of lumpen elements , terror mongers of every shade, variety & religious denomination apart from human disruptors. Moulding technology for human welfare, progress and development, spread of prosperity is the biggest challenge. (author is Director and Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Business Education Geopolitics Leadership Policy Technology
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Five big ideas to make Bharat a developed nation @2047!

K.A.Badarinath Niti Aayog in consultation with stakeholders has been readying a vision document for Bharat to evolve as a developed country in 25 years from now. This document is expected to be unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 90 days from now. Bharat celebrates 100-years as an independent nation in 2047 free from clutches of imperialistic British rule. By then, the country will have to implement a flawless plan to not fall into classic middle-income trap and emerge as a thriving developed economy. Given that independent consultancies and multi-lateral funding agencies foresee possibility of becoming a developed country, getting there seamlessly is what the government may have to work on. For this to happen, primacy must be on moderating rising cost of goods and services and at the same time sustain quality, quantity and price competitiveness for these items apart providing access to Bharat’s market. A national debate may have to be kicked off by Niti Aayog to get the strategy right instead of limiting their consultation to a powerful few that matter today. Fresh ideas and concepts need serious consideration to bolster moves to turn Bharat into third largest economy with US $ 30 trillion size overshadowing Germany and Japan by 2030. Here are the five big ideas that CIHS offers: Economy’s fourth pillar: Economic restructuring is something that needs to be undertaken urgently and expeditiously thereby preparing the ground for transformation into a developed country. For that to happen, fourth pillar of the economy needs to be built painstakingly. Grassroots businesses, cooperatives, producers’ organizations with direct linkages to consumers may have to don this role. Many of these consumers may also be business partners of these enterprises. Foreign, domestic, public sector investments apart from household savings and spending through annual budgets by states and centre may not suffice to trigger the transformative change that Bharat is aspiring for. Carving out at least 500,000 grassroots cooperatives in select sectors to provide goods and services, undertake exports and provide jobs may have to be scientifically designed. Bharat needs to be designed as the ‘largest participative economy’ that’s not constrained or limited by stock markets, portfolio investors, domestic savings or foreign funds. A large number of big, medium and small profitable enterprises in cooperative sector that are essentially rural will have to emerge and take the lead in next phase of economic expansion. Extending beyond possible 50 lakh street vendors, 66 lakh loans and a measly Rs 8600 crore is something that Bharat has to plan for at grassroots. From banking, insurance, pension funds to home grown low cost, home or family based enterprises run on the spirit of cooperation and sustainability is what Bharat may have to design. Recalibrating defunct or loss-making cooperatives by inducing professionalism and spirit of enterprises may be the starting point. Bharat’s government at centre, states and local bodies or district administration will have to collaborate to rejig the cooperatives and establish 500,000 new enterprises that are worth billions of dollars. Antyodaya: Reaching out to last individual standing in the line should form bulwark of the restructuring plan that takes Bharat to aspired third position in global economic pecking order. In the spirit of Antyodaya, broadening and deepening economic growth story to turn ‘all inclusive’ from spread of prosperity to providing services at lowest strata of village panchayats is something Bharat can work on. If message of ‘Bhagwan Ram’ can be taken to 500,000 villages to mobilize support for construction of a grand temple at Ayodhya on mission mode, there’s no reason why the ‘Antyodaya’ movement cannot methodically reach these far-flung places and people in seven years. Like Ram Lulla  signifies unification of a diverse Bharat’s society, Antyodaya should serve as unified economic emancipation and empowerment plan. Antyodaya cannot be limited to a ‘food scheme’, ‘skills development or a couple of projects in states or centre. An economic model that allows uplift of people at lowest strata in a protracted but sustained way needs to be rolled out by both central government and states in the spirit of ‘team Bharat’. For too long, there has been debate on ‘Antyodaya’ as the clinching factor in economic transformation, both in right wing and Left of centre political formations. Getting the model right is the key and implementing ‘Antyodaya’ taking each family as a unit to building clusters of self-ruled and sustained villages. This would translate to decentralization and democratization at lowest in the economic pyramid. 100 big Indian brands & companies: Can we take this economic change to a different level? In next seven years, can we build 100 known desi global brands for goods and services consumed in at least 25 countries each? Should we not chart a plan to build at least 100 large trans-national behemoths that account for about $ 10 trillion? Do our enterprises have the heft to get there and be there in the reckoning? Big question therefore is when do we build our own ‘Apple’ kind of a trillion dollar enterprises?  Let’s concede that unless wealth is produced, democratically spread and celebrated, this cannot happen. From banking, insurance, pension funds to iconic products and services can be ‘Made in India’ for the world, owned by Indians that showcase them with pride. Identify at least ten sectors in which the transformation that can be achieved by drawing up fool-proof plans. Here again democratization of these giant enterprises is what can be attempted with millions of stakeholders controlling the wealth. Strategic investment plans: Investments and businesses can be dovetailed to suit Bharat’s strategic futuristic plans. This involves careful assessment of Bharat’s interests, both offensive and defensive, to ride on the right horse. Chinese Communist Party has made strategic investments globally to suit President Xi Jingping’s aspiration of ruling the country for life time. In Bharat’s context, it cannot be individual centric but role the country would play internationally, both soft and strategic. Identifying a dozen areas with strategic interface and clear goal posts set for these enterprises may have to be readied

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Education Hindus
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Unite to Lead by Example

RSS message of unity transcending caste, creed, gender, region and faiths will strengthen Bharat’s social fabric, signal global leadership role K.A.Badarinath ‘Reconciliation, security and peace’ are what Hindu centric Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Sarsanghchalak, Mohan Bhagawat articulated while delivering his annual Vijay Dashami speech at the organization’s headquarters in Nagpur. This is at variance with ‘radicalism’ and ‘fundamentalism’ sought to be attached to Hindus and RSS by self-styled ‘liberal minds’, conspiracy theorists and those opposed to Bharat’s unity. RSS chief’s Dussehra speech is widely recognized in Bharat and internationally as firm indicator of the organization’s outlook towards issues, happenings and unfolding developments on socio-economic and political front. ‘Sulah, Salamati & Aman’ is what Mohan Bhagawat pushed for with diverse communities that form larger Bharat’s society. Bhagawat appealed for reconciliation, security and peace as against discord, strife and violence (Fitna, Fasad & Kitan) to realize vast breadth of unity in diversity that Bharat’s 1.4 billion population is known for since millennia. Use of Arabic and Persian root words by RSS chief to drive home the point of unity rising above differences seems a firm signal to over 210 million Muslims in India and their counterparts around the world especially the Sunnis that eye RSS and Hindus with suspicion and distrust. His reference to Christians and other minorities that may have differences with Hindus is again significant given ‘tolerant, embracing attitude’ of Bharat’s citizens to all those that made this country their home. There was very little or no mention of RSS chief’s reconciliatory note in Bharat’s media or dispatches of foreign writers. Forging unity by rising above selfish and divisive tendencies disrupting Bharat’s growth seems to be central theme of RSS chief’s speech. RSS appeal for forging unity as ‘mantra’ is refreshing and assuring given the false propaganda unleashed by Bharat’s rivals on reported Muslims ‘genocide’ or Christians being targeted post-2014. A couple of Christian and Muslim organizations have being propagating globally on their being targeted by RSS, BJP and Modi Government, in that order. Sangh chief spoke for his organization unequivocally and plain terms that RSS does not believe in such an agenda. Playing victimhood, looking at each other with suspicion and seeking political dominance have been identified as three big evils that come in the way of achieving unity. RSS chief also made it clear that his push for unity did not tantamount to ‘ceasefire’ between the so called warring parties. It was RSS chief’s way of reflecting on cultural continuity, unity and vast diversity. Rightly so, RSS targeted ‘cultural Marxists’ and ‘woke’ that have sought to dominate the narrative and peddle confusion, chaos and corruption’ through deceitful means to meet selfish ends and discriminatory in attitude. RSS chief came down heavily on these elements that promoted anarchy and indiscretion in public life as individuals and groups. A lot of what Mohan Bhagawat said makes sense when one looks at disruptive campaigns, ‘tool kits’ and physical demonstrations that are done by anti-Hindu conglomerations that are indoctrinated by misplaced Marxism, jihad, evangelism and of all extremism and violence that breed divisiveness. Case in point is the aggressive, violent and extremist minority Khalistani elements in otherwise calm and quiet larger Sikh community. These vocal groups and individuals, not very large in numbers in Bharat, UK, US, Canada and Europe have threatened to derail perception about Bharat globally. Line of conciliation and message of unity propounded by RSS chief Mohan Bhagawat is significant given that Bharat is celebrating 75-years post adoption of the country’s constitution and in a year or so, RSS turns 100-years old with rich legacy of its founders Dr Keshav Baliram Hedgewar and his successor, Madhav Sadashivrao Golwalkar. Sangh’s message of unity cannot be more apt given the challenges that Bharat faces within and outside as a country and ‘classical civilization with rich heritage. It’s no denying that this unity should also be the driving force for Bharat to provide leadership globally especially after an eventful G-20 Presidency, forging bilateral and regional pacts with equanimity at centre. RSS chief seems to have exercised huge restraint in his commentary on the Russian onslaught of Ukraine and Hamas terror attack on Israel that have led to ‘conflicts’ which will have disruptive impact on humanity and economic recovery that’s nascent post-Covid 19. Briefly, RSS chief referred to basic tenets of Sanatan Dharma as the guiding principles that shaped Hindu way of life. He seems to have exercised a lot of restraint in calling out the likes of Tamil Nadu’s first political family that view Sanatan Dharma as ‘dengue’ and ‘malaria’ to be weeded out. One issue that’s dear to Hindus on which RSS chief came out unambiguously is ‘grand’ Ram temple to house Ram Lalla at Ayodhya whose consecration has been scheduled for January 22 next year. RSS and likeminded organizations view Ram temple as a ‘unifying factor’ for all citizens in Bharat transcending castes, creed, sex, region and faiths. His call for holding programmes that send out a strong message of unity across Bharat and globally is extension of his extrapolation to rise above narrow mind-set. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Cyber Security Disinformation Hindus Human Rights Insurgency Leadership Pakistan Policy Security
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588

‘Terror is anti-humanity’

Bharat’s strategic independence was displayed while it rejected Hamas terror on Israel but extended support to free, viable Palestine with a message to friends & foes alike K.A.Badarinath Strategic independence has been the key to Bharat’s foreign policy formulation while engaging with global powers. And, furthering Bharat’s offensive and defensive interests is primacy to this policy. Globally, zero tolerance to expansionist, jingoistic political thought and rejecting every form of terror irrespective of caste, creed, gender, region, religion, faith and colour is something Bharat feels strongly about. Concept of ‘Vasudaiva Kutumbakam’ – entire humanity as one big global family – has been the corner stone to Narendra Modi government’s engagement internationally in last nine years. These three basic tenets of foreign policy have worked reasonably very well when Bharat stayed away from joining the pro or anti-Russian fronts. Instead of joining the NATO forces blindly or going Russia way whole hog, Bharat espoused its own line. Strategic independence in thought and actions saw Bharat condemning the violence and bombardment by Russian forces that invaded Ukraine. Bharat did not join hands with European Union or for that matter US to single out Russia. In the same vein, Ukraine was given all possible humanitarian assistance and extricated Indians that were stuck in the war zone. Such independent line is expected to deliver results for Bharat in dealing with Islamist terror outfit Hamas attack on neighbouring Israel, home to Jews. In a week, the conflict between Islamist terrorists and Jews has escalated into full war having adverse impact in the gulf region and beyond. War between Jews and Hamas terrorists is expected to heighten further with no end in sight anytime soon. It was important for New Delhi to get its act right in dealing with the situation given that her interests in middle-east are too huge and Israel has been a dependable partner in half a dozen areas. Within first few hours, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the Hamas campaign as ‘terror attack’ and condemned unequivocally in two tweets. Prime Minister Modi’s telephonic conversation with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu fortified India’s position against terror, terrorism and terrorists that wreaked havoc on Israel and Jews. At G-20 Parliament Speakers conclave that’s underway in New Delhi, Prime Minister Modi elaborated further and said ‘terrorism was against humanity’. Second part to Bharat’s policy on Hamas – Israel war was unveiled at a foreign media briefing this Thursday. India reiterated its decades old position for ‘an independent, viable and sovereign’ Palestine state that co-exists peacefully with Israel’ in West Asia. While Bharat does not tolerate, terror, terrorism and terrorist outfits like Hamas, it is not against carving out a Palestinian state. Drawing distinct differentiation between Hamas and Palestine is a significant point in Bharat’s Middle-East policy. This differentiation is conceptually and strategically significant vis-à-vis the Western powers and European nations. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar led foreign policy team seems to have sent out clear signals to both friends and foes alike by reiterating its support for Palestine state. The message from Bharat is straight and simple. The US and its partners in NATO cannot take Bharat for granted on the issue as was the case in Russia – Ukraine conflict. Coming out strongly in favour of a ‘free, independent and viable’ Palestine state and rejecting Hamas is also important given that Muslims rallied in country after country either in support of Hamas or advocating Palestinian cause. In the fast evolving situation, Bharat recognized her responsibility towards Middle East Muslims that seek a ‘peaceful’ Palestine state and at the same time stood like a rock with Jews in Israel. Bharat’s position is in continuation of its historic association with the Palestine movement. This policy has however taken twists and turns, evolved over the years in light of ‘terror’ outfits like Hamas posing serious threat to humanity. Bharat’s continued engagement with both Sunni and Shia dominated nations on political and economic fronts seem to have dictated her nuanced position. This policy also factors in the importance of aligning with Jews in Israel, US and Europe while rejecting Hamas ‘in toto’. By extending support to independent Palestine state via bilateral negotiations, Bharat has been pragmatic in finding lasting solution for peace in Middle East. It may not have been a cake walk for Bharat to evolve her position on Israel – Hamas conflict given her recent engagements with United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, players in the Gulf and North Africa including Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain etc. Even the Muslim world is divided in the middle on terrorist organizations like Hamas. For instance, UAE and Bahrain that are party to Abrahams accord with US have limited to extending tactical support to cause of Palestine and not toed the Hamas ‘terror’ line. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has been muted in its responses to Hamas terror. Egypt is not with Hamas. Jordan and Qatar have different positions vis-à-vis Palestine state and Hamas. Organizations like Hezbollah from Lebanon and Islamic State fighters may have extended their unqualified support to Hamas. Iran’s supreme leader Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei is yet another significant figure that stood behind Hamas terror act. But, Muslim world as such is not united completely. Apart from the fault lines among Arab nations, Bharat being home to over 210 million Muslims – both Sunnis and Shias – cannot ignore the impact of conflict within its own minorities. Isolation and elimination of terror outfits like Hamas, ISIS, Hezbollah, Taliban or such religious fundamentalists should be the global priority. For this to happen, a common definition of ‘terror’ may have to be achieved internationally without ‘ifs and buts’. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Business Geopolitics Leadership Policy
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588

Doves in Droves!

Indian debt market with foreign funds influx of US $ 30 billion after JP Morgan, Bloomberg indexation reflect confidence of global financial community K.A.Badarinath A quiet transformation that has gone less noticed in India is that of its debt market which is in for bigger overhaul. Strong growth story, reforms in debt market, decisive leadership of Narendra Modi government have created fresh opportunities for foreign investors in the nascent debt market with potential and promise. After over years of intense negotiations, Indian sovereign bonds will make it to Bloomberg and JP Morgan’s emerging markets index. Getting benchmarked on these two indices would lead to about $ 30 billion inflows into Indian debt paper that’s largely confined to government banks and financial institutions. US bank J P Morgan recently announced inclusion of 23 government bonds worth $ 330 billion on its emerging markets index. This will be staggered out over ten months beginning June 28, 2024 to March 2025. Close on the heels, Bloomberg Index Services has given firm hint that Indian bonds will be part of its indices globally. While Bloomberg reported discussions with its clients that are largely banks and investment companies, JP Morgan has more or less completed this exercise. As per reports, large investors in government debt internationally expected Bloomberg to include India bonds in first quarter of next fiscal in India beginning April 1, 2024. Inclusion of Indian treasury issued  rupee denominated bonds under fully accessible route (FAR) are part of JP Morgan and Bloomberg indices would lead to large global investors taking big exposure in Bharat’s paper. Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Bharat’s central bank in consultation with Indian government had opened a new channel named, Fully accessible route (FAR), through which non-resident investors were permitted to invest in specified Indian securities without caps. This foreign investors’ window was formally opened in 2020. In the indexation of JP Morgan and Bloomberg, Indian bonds are set to get maximum weightage of 10 points globally and 8.7 points in emerging markets indices. India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is right on track when she says that stability, policy consistency and reforms has made Bharat’s famed growth story all the more robust and sustainable. With emergence of India as a strong manufacturing hub for top companies like Apple, Nokia, Boeing, Samsung and Amazon, equity markets turned ebullient with fresh equities investments moving away from China. A similar situation is getting unravelled in debt market with investors shifting away from China that’s struggling to keep its growth estimates in short and medium term positive and healthy given hiccups in the post-Covid 19 recovery. In contrast, India is expected to log fastest growth next two years with 6.1 per cent in 2023 as per International Monetary Fund. This weighs against US’s 1.8 per cent and global aggregate of 3 per cent. China losing steam, Russia taken out of the indices following Ukraine war and healthy economic growth in India has egged foreign investment firms, rating agencies and large banks to look at Bharat’s debt paper eagerly. Finance Minister Sitharaman may have been a wee bit conservative when she projected inflows of US $ 23 billion after inclusion of Indian debt paper on JP Morgan Bond Index. Goldman Sachs, the prominent US investment bank and services company, has however projected $ 30 billion in 2023-24 when top investors rebalance their exposure internationally. Chinese debt paper was in demand way back in 2019. Of late, Chinese paper has begun to lose support given its shaky economic fundamentals that may translate into larger interest in Indian debt market. Hitherto, treasury debt paper was largely restricted to government owned banks and financial institutions while a very small chunk was available for retail investors and mutual funds. Foreign investors seem to be factoring huge infrastructure investment plans rolled out by Narendra Modi government. And, second factor that may propel rebalancing their exposure is outcome of legislative assembly elections in five states followed by Parliament polls before June 2024. Projected manifold increase in foreign funds flow into India debt paper goes well with ‘on the ascent’ narrative of Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP and its allies that have begun a spirited campaign ahead of states and federal elections. No doubt that RBI and Indian government are experimenting big by enabling foreign investors to take large exposure in Indian paper. This may eventually translate into RBI losing some flexibility in money policy formulation and shifting to market-led dynamics. One cannot ignore the contrarian view as well. Foreign investors taking exposure worth US $ 25 – 30 billion in government stock of over Rs 100 lakh crore or US $ 1.2 trillion is too little and too late. If one were to factor fresh borrowing of Rs 1.65 lakh crore each year, these inflows would add depth to the Indian debt market without having material impact on monetary policy formulation in near future. Unanimous view however is the robustness, inclusiveness and sustainability of India’s growth story built on strong economic fundamentals. Financial community’s confidence in Indian story reaffirms that doves are back in droves. (author is Director & Chief Executive at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Cyber Security Geopolitics Human Rights Insurgency Security
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Israel’s Right to Defend is Absolute

Hamas and Hezbollah have just escalated their threat level, nuisance value thereby altering the delicately balanced West Asia power equations Rahul Pawa As Saturday dawned bright and sunny on the important Jewish day of observance, Israel was jolted by unexpected assault from Palestinian terrorists linked to Hamas in Gaza. With cold precision, Hamas backed by Hezbollah orchestrated a sweeping, multifaceted assault against Israel presenting one of the gravest challenges to the Jewish nation faced in half a century. In this nefariously orchestrated operation, diverse array of tactics was employed by Hamas, the dreaded Sunni Islamist outfit. This included gliders and parachutes with weapons that took to skies, naval vessels for maritime intrusion and heavily-armed terrorists advancing on foot. Hamas audacity became evident with launch of rockets in thousands, some daringly aimed at Jerusalem. The sheer scale of this aggression not only resonates with its immediate impact but raises significant concerns, setting off global alarm, attention and unease. In a recorded message, Hamas terror commander Mohammed Deif referred to the assault as “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm.” He urged Palestinians in various regions to unite in the fight and emphasized on return to their revolution. He pointed to alleged Israeli hostilities and tensions surrounding Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem as a catalyst. This sentiment was echoed by Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh who rallied Muslims worldwide to defend Al-Aqsa and Islam’s sacred mission. The overarching message to Israelis was not just about Palestinian cause but conveyed deep religious conviction, viewing Israelis, predominantly Jews as betrayers of the ‘Islamic divine will’. Fallout of this Hamas terror attack was catastrophic. About 22 Israeli towns and critical military installations were under siege with human toll painting an even grimmer picture. For Israelis, the ordeal was nightmarish, ceaseless, and unimaginable. As hours ticked by, families huddled in their homes, in hope of getting relief from encroaching Hamas terrorists infiltrating their communities. At a music festival southern Israel, young attendees from around the world faced a tragic and ruthless fate. In a dark twist, Hamas brazenly broadcast their acts turning their reign of terror into a spectacle for the world. Israeli families including women and children bore the brunt of this mindless violence with numerous abductions and heart-wrenching scenes streamed live. The world witnessed trauma of a wounded young Israeli woman dragged into Gaza and an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldier’s tragic fate displayed for all. Shockingly, the reaction to this brazen act of terrorism in certain quarters was inconceivably jubilant. Pro-Hamas videos found enthusiastic distribution and received cheers from its supporters around the world, including far-left factions in the West and India. Celebrations erupted in Tehran and Ramallah with Iran’s own parliamentary body voicing chilling chants of “Death to Israel” inside its Parliament. The intent was clear: every harrowing moment inflicted on the Israelis was meant not just as an act of terror but also as a message, an open humiliation. In response to multiple infiltrations and rocket launches from Gaza Strip, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel was now in a state of war. He vowed retaliation against Hamas and underscored Israel’s unwavering right to self-defense. By Saturday, prominent global leaders including Joe Biden, Narendra Modi and Rishi Sunak voiced their solidarity with Israel. Their condemnation of unprecedented aggression by Palestinian terror group, Hamas was resolute. Moreover, the US, UK and several nations unequivocally affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself. Several hours later, Israel retaliated fiercely in Gaza resulting in significant casualties. The conflict’s ripple effects were felt as far as Lebanon with clashes between Israel and Hezbollah and in Alexandria, where two Israeli tourists were killed. Israeli airstrikes targeted strategic points in Gaza including residences and Hamas officials’ homes leading to over 300 fatalities. With ongoing ground confrontations in southern Israel, the military was criticized for not thwarting the initial attack. Israel has now deployed a substantial force around Gaza and plans to evacuate Israelis near the territory’s border. Hamas attacks which commenced in early hours of Saturday has to date tragically resulted in loss of over 800 lives and injuries to more than 2000 individuals. Importantly, implications of the events in Israel stretch far beyond the immediate trauma and retaliatory defense response. Streaming pro-Hamas videos depicting grave violations against Israeli civilians and detained IDF personnel amount to crimes against humanity. In a startling breach, Hamas terrorists from Gaza managed to infiltrate southern Israeli border in a very short span of time catching Israeli defense posts off guard. This raises eyebrows given the sophistication and depth of Israel’s intelligence and surveillance operations especially focused on monitoring Hamas. Several Western commentators point to serious intelligence lapse from within Israel and its global partners. Inefficiency of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) funded at a staggering $23.6 billion annually also posed serious questions. When Israeli citizens found themselves enmeshed in their darkest hour, the defense forces seemed conspicuously absent. Even hours into the crisis, rapid response from the military was lacking and the political leadership appeared equally paralyzed, failing to provide clarity or direction. The nation, so often lauded for its security prowess seemed collectively stunned. With the state’s apparatus seemingly in a state of inertia, a haunting silence enveloped the nation’s psyche. The events challenge conventional beliefs about the robustness of Israel’s defense and political machinery.   Hamas, with swift terror acts sought to humiliate Israel. By kidnapping children, desecrating the fallen and broadcasting their acts, they aimed to instill fear and expose perceived Israeli vulnerabilities. These actions by Hamas, once considered a mere regional irritant, have substantially shifted the strategic landscape. Their provocations have transcended previous boundaries, deeply challenging Israel’s long-held defensive strategies.  These events have catalyzed unity among Israelis across political and social spectra. While internal differences persist, Hamas actions have crystalized the pressing need for a united front against the common enemy. The images and narratives from recent events serve as painful reminders of perils of a divided stance.  In the face of this enhanced threat level, Israel’s stance is bound to evolve.

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