Go Big, Go Bold!

Transactional Trump, EU policy recast, realignment of global forces with China & Russia moving closer may cast a long shadow on Modi government’s eleventh year budget. K.A.Badarinath Post-elections in United States, Donald J Trump assuming charge as American President coupled with realignment of forces globally will weigh-in on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as she readies to present her eighth federal budget in a row this Saturday. Nirmala Sitharaman may have to take on board Trump’s constant haggling that Bharat was a high tariff destination for American goods. More importantly, clubbing Brazil and Bharat with China for imposing high tariffs as a way to balance trade may be on top of the mind. A deficit of $ 32 billion that US have with India in bilateral trade of US $ 118 billion during 2024 is the big trigger for ‘transactional’ Trump who is expected to push hard for ‘rebalancing’ transactions. In fact, this is the biggest factor for Trump to threaten across the board tariff of over 2.5 per cent on all Indian goods, services and push for sale of defence equipment. A possible way out may be found when Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Trump during his France visit next month. This apart, what finance minister Sitharaman would consider is Commerce Ministry analysis on all economic issues that Trump talked about at his inauguration as President on January 20 and virtual address at Davos World Economic Forum the day after. In fact, this will easily go into Finance Minister Sitharaman’s tabulations on oil prices, US $ and Indian rupee pricing apart from her fiscal deficit projections that are expected to be in line with her announcement in the last budget a couple of months back. In line with ‘Make America Great Again’ campaign of Donald Trump, European Union pushing for ‘Make Europe Great Again’ line may have its bearing on developing large economies like Bharat, Brazil, South Africa etc. The 27-nation block and Trump may have taken a leaf out of Prime Minister Modi’s “India First” or “Bharat First” campaign that led to mobilization of Hindutva or Bharatiya forces at political level as well as socio-economic front. Though European Commission President Ursula Vonder Leyen holds that Europe is already great, she commissioned a report on union’s competitiveness from Mario Draghi to provide a firm roadmap to sustain healthy growth rates over next 25 years. This reassessment will definitely have its impact on exporters from Asia like India that’s just becoming a player to reckon with both in investments and trade. Serious conversations within European Union end to her dominance in automobiles, emergence of China as a big player in automobiles as well as artificial intelligence, non-availability or limited access to cost-effective oil from Russia will have to be factored by Nirmala Sitharaman as she goes about fine-tuning Bharat’s roadmap to 2047. Union budget is definitely a big occasion to look back, assess and work on futuristic economic policy framework in the wake of global realignment of force, China and Russia moving closer, big debate on capitalism versus communism, conservatives to liberals, Left of centre to far right politics within and outside the country. Narendra Modi government as one can recollect have smartly deployed every penny to win hearts of 1.4 billion people in last eleven years. Even without majority seats in Lok Sabha on its own during last June elections, Modi and his economic policy making team led by Nirmala Sitharaman has not diminished or deviated one wee bit. This eleventh-year budget of BJP-led NDA will be no different. Fiscal consolidation, prudence in spending, continuation of its well laid out taxation policy and spreading the wings to cover more and more vulnerable sections in the ambit of famed Bharat ‘growth story’ will clearly be visible in vision and action. Expanding scope of highly successful Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme hitherto introduced in 2020 would not only expand industrial base, create new jobs opportunities but also offer an excellent platform for foreign investors. Till date about Rs. 1.32 lakh crores foreign investment (US$ 16 billion) have been realized thereby leading to a massive jump in manufacturing output at Rs. 10.90 lakh crore (US$ 130 billion). Over 850,000 jobs have been created due to this industrial expansion under the scheme alone. ‘Make in India’ and ‘Make for the World’ is a great policy liner that has stood test of times for Modi government. Matrix for the scheme where foreign and domestic investors plough-in has to be expanded across sectors especially defence and security to exploit the potential for investments, technology and jobs creation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to announce Modi government’s policy framework to manage Artificial Intelligence (AI) like DeepSake, Qwen developed by China with its alignment to Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Already, there are enough indications that AI Compute Facility that secured 18,000 GPUs will drive the artificial intelligence initiative that’s ‘open sourced, application focused and flexible’. Data privacy and data localization policy may have to be dovetailed to ensure that our artificial intelligence initiative is in sync with the country’s diverse needs. Quick investments and development of ‘generative’ artificial intelligence networks may have to be prioritized by Modi government and the dedicated mission may have to develop a framework to deal with the issues. Nirmala Sitharaman may have to opt for policy reforms to push the pedal on governance that eases ‘way of living’ and enhances ‘living standards’ for people in rural and semi-urban areas. Bringing equivalent focus on middle and lower-middle class apart from most vulnerable sections into the ambit of budget and economic policy making will also be a saleable preposition for the finance minister. Given the kind of direct cash benefits announced in different states as part of competitive political slugfest may have to be addressed immediately to nourish a healthy work culture to enhance productivity in industry, agriculture, services and allied areas. From free power, heavily subsidised gas to cash offers, both opposition parties and ruling NDA partners have gone for the kill

Trump's Orders - Impact on Indians and the Diaspora

Bharat United States

508

Trump’s Orders Impact on Indians and The Diaspora

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was re-elected to the White House and took oath of office as 47th President of the United States. Without wasting any time, he signed a number of presidential orders on his first day in office to carry out the pledges he made during the campaign. These directives, while intended to address local issues, have important ramifications for populations around the world, especially Indians and the Indian diaspora. The possible effects of these orders on trade, immigration, bilateral relations, and cultural links between India and the US are examined in length in this Explainer.

India’s 76th Republic Day: Significance and Beyond

Bharat

593

India’s 76th Republic Day: Significance and Beyond

Pummy Pandita January 26 holds a special place in Bhartiya civilisation. It marks the Purna Swaraj Declaration of 1930, when the people of India vowed for complete independence, and, 20 years later, on January 26, 1950, adopted the Indian Constitution, ushering in the essence of a republic. The Constitution is not just a collection of laws, rather it is an evolving document that is inclusive, flexible, and dynamic. It embodies learnings from Bharat’s ancient sacred/ scriptures like the Vedas, Upanishads, Ramayana, Bhagavad Gita, Buddhist and Jain teachings, the spirit of Bharat’s ancient concept, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (the world is one family), concept of dharma (Duty and Righteousness), welfare state, equality and non-discrimination, moral and ethical governance, non-violence (ahimsa) and peace, liberty, equality and fraternity, environmental protection etc. Republic Day reminds us to uphold these principles as Bharat advances in the 21st century. It serves as a reminder to all citizens of their responsibility to help build a powerful, independent, and peaceful Bharat, advancing the idea of a timeless and transformative civilisation.Republic Day signifies the reaffirmation of Bharat’s enduring ideals of justice, equality, liberty, and brotherhood in addition to the development of a legal framework. Bharat’s capacity to reconcile its spiritual ethos with democratic values is demonstrated by the Constitution, which was drafted under the visionary leadership of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar. It provides a beacon of light for civilisation’s progress while tying together the oneness of a long-surviving civilisation. To represent India’s focus on developing cordial relations with countries around the world, the tradition of inviting a foreign dignitary as the Chief Guest to the Republic Day celebrations was instituted. This practice has both diplomatic and cultural significance, expressing India’s pluralistic ethos and soft power while showcasing its goals to fortify bilateral ties, communicate its dedication to regional and global peace, cooperation, and goodwill, and engage with the international community. The colourful procession, which highlights India’s cultural legacy, military force, and technical prowess, provides visiting dignitaries with an insight into the country’s variety and might. Indonesia, a fellow Asian country fighting for its independence, was among the first nations to acknowledge India’s independence. Given the common history and culture, President Sukarno of Indonesia was the first Chief Guest on Republic Day in 1950, as this invitation also represented regional solidarity. In the years that followed, dignitaries from different nations were carefully selected in accordance with India’s foreign policy objectives. Initially, the emphasis was on inviting leaders from nearby Asian nations; as India’s international involvement increased, the focus shifted to Africa, Europe, and the Americas. Some of the most notable dignatories who have graced India’s Republic Day celebrations as Chief Guests: 1950s and 1960s: Laying the Foundation 1950 President Sukarno Indonesia 1955 Government General Malik Ghulam Muhammad Pakistan 1961 Queen Elizabeth II United Kingdom 1968 Prime Minister Alexei Kosygin Soviet Union 1970s and 1980s: Non-Aligned and Strategic Partnerships 1974 President Josip Broz Tito Yugoslavia 1976 Prime Minister Jacques Chirac France 1980 President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing France 1988 President Junius Jayewardene Sri Lanka 1990s: Post-Cold War Adjustments 1992 President Mário Soares Portugal 1993 Prime Minister John Major United Kingdom 1995 President Nelson Mandela South Africa 2000s: Expanding Horizons 2003 President Mohammed Khatami Iran 2005 King Jigme Singye Wangchuck Bhutan 2007 President Vladimir Putin Russia 2010s: Global and Multilateral Focus 2015 President Barack Obama – The first sitting U.S. President to attend. USA 2018 Leaders of ASEAN nations A unique instance of inviting multiple leaders to commemorate 25 years of India-ASEAN ties. 2019 President Cyril Ramaphosa South Africa – Honoring Mahatma Gandhi’s 150th birth anniversary 2020s: Strengthening New Partnerships 2021: No Chief Guest – A rare break in the tradition due to COVID-19 pandemic 2023 President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Egypt The custom of having prominent foreign leaders as principal guests highlights Bharat’s expanding alliances and influence, reinforcing its position as a responsible global force. H.E. Prabowo Subianto, President of Indonesia, will be a distinguished guest at India’s 76th Republic Day celebrations. This decision strikes a deep chord with the economic, strategic, and civilisational bonds that unite the two biggest democratic and archipelagic countries in the world. The invitation highlights the strong alliance between India and Indonesia, which is based on shared values, history, and current geopolitical conditions. India and Indonesia established cordial ties because of their shared democratic heritage, pluralist culture, fight against colonial powers, and progressive leadership. At India’s first Republic Day in 1950, President Sukarno of Indonesia was the Guest of Honour. An Indonesian marching contingent will grace the ceremonial route during India’s Republic Day Parade, marking a historic event and a testament to the longstanding friendship between the two biggest maritime democracies in the world. This act highlights the long-standing connections between India and Indonesia, which are based on a common cultural heritage, a history of resistance to colonialism, and a shared goal for an open and free Indo-Pacific. Their involvement is a testament to the strong interpersonal ties and expanding strategic alliance that continue to influence peace and development in the region. As these two countries move forward together, their relationship shines brightly on the international scene as a symbol of respect and cooperation. Indonesia is willing to uphold the advice of its founding father, Soekarno: “Never ever forget history.” This is demonstrated by the preservation of oral, textual, and visual Indic tradition through literary works like the Kakawin Ramayana, the renowned architectural legacy like the Prambanan Temple, and the ongoing use of Sanskrit as the motto of governmental agencies. India and Indonesia’s relationship goes beyond the confines of contemporary statecraft. It is a connection created over centuries of intellectual dissemination, marine trade, and cultural interchange. The Indic stamp is irreversible, spanning from the era of the Majapahit and Srivijaya empires to the impact of Buddhism and Hinduism that still shapes Indonesian culture today. Java and Bali celebrate the Ramayana and Mahabharata just as much as Ayodhya and Kurukshetra do, creating

Without Enmity, Let’s Work for Welfare of All

Hindus Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)

529

Without Enmity, Let’s Work for Welfare of All

Taking inspiration from Bhagwan Ram, let’s pursue path of harmony, unity, progress and peace; reconstruction of Bharat and entire world. Dr Mohan Bhagwat The history of our Bharat is one of continuous struggle against invaders for around last one and a half thousand years. The aim of early invasions was to plunder and sometimes (like Alexander’s invasion) was for colonisation. But, attacks from West in the name of Islam only brought complete destruction and alienation of the society. To demoralise the nation, society, it was necessary to destroy their religious places, hence foreign invaders destroyed temples in India. They did this not once but multiple times. Their aim was to demoralise Bharatiya society so that they could rule over Bharat unhindered with a weakened society. The demolition of Shri Ram temple in Ayodhya was also done with same intention and for same purpose. This policy of invaders was not limited to just Ayodhya or any one temple, but was a war strategy for the entire world. Indian rulers never attacked anyone, but invaders of the world have done such misdeeds by being aggressive for expansion of their kingdom. But in Bharat, it did not have the desired results, not at least as per their expectations. On the contrary, in Bharat, the faith, commitment and morale of the society never diminished, the society did not bow down, their struggle of resistance continued. Therefore, repeated attempts were made to take control of Shri Ram’s birthplace and build a temple there. There were many wars, struggles and sacrifices for him. And, the issue of Ram Janmabhoomi ingrained in the minds of Hindus. In 1857, when war plans started being made against the foreign i.e. British rule, Hindus and Muslims together expressed their readiness to fight against them and then there was a mutual exchange of ideas between them. And, at that time, a situation evolved where there would be a reconciliation on issue of banning cow slaughter and liberation of Shri Ram Janmabhoomi . Bahadur Shah Zafar also guaranteed a ban on cow slaughter. As a result, entire society fought together. Bharatiya people showed bravery in that war but unfortunately this war of Independence failed. Then, Bharat did not get independence, British rule remained uninterrupted, but the struggle for Ram Temple did not stop. According to British policy of “Divide and Rule” towards Hindu-Muslims which was already in practice, gained even more prominence after 1857. To break the unity, British hanged the heroes of the struggle in Ayodhya and question of liberation of Ram Janmabhoomi remained unresolved. The struggle for Ram temple continued. After Independence in 1947, when Somnath temple was unanimously renovated, the discussion about such temples started. Similar consensus could have been considered regarding liberation of Ram Janmabhoomi, but the direction of politics changed. The selfish forms of politics such as discrimination and appeasement became prevalent and hence the question remained as it is. On this issue, governments did not even consider the wishes and sentiments of Hindu society. On the contrary, they tried to destroy initiative taken by the society. The legal battle related to this, which had been going on since pre-independence, continuously carried on. The mass movement for the liberation of Ram Janmabhoomi began in the 1980s and continued for thirty years. In 1949, the Murty of Bhagwan Shri Ramchandra appeared at the Ram Janmabhoomi. In 1986, the mandir was unlocked as per court order. In the coming period, the continuous struggle of Hindu society continued through many campaigns and kar seva. In 2010, a clear judgement of Allahabad High Court clearly came before the society. The efforts had to be sustained for final resolution of the issue at the earliest. On November 9, 2019, after 134 years of legal struggle, the Supreme Court gave a balanced decision after examining the truth and facts. The feelings and facts of both parties were also considered in this decision. This decision has been given after hearing the arguments of all parties in the court. According to this decision, a board of trustees was constituted for constructing the temple. Bhoomi pujan of the temple took place on August 5, 2020 and now, Paush Shukla Dwadashi Yugabd 5125, accordingly on January 22, 2024, installation and Pran Pratishtha ceremony of the Murty of Shri Ramlala has been organised. From Dharmic point of view, Shri Ram is the most worshipped deity of majority society and the life of Shri Ramchandra is still accepted as an ideal code of conduct by entire society. Hence, now the conflict that has arisen as for and against over the dispute should be ended. The bitterness that has arisen in the meantime should also end. Enlightened people of the society must see that the dispute ends completely. Ayodhya means a city ‘where there is no war ‘, ‘a place free from conflict’. On this occasion, in the entire country, reconstruction of Ayodhya in our mind is the need of the hour and also the duty of all of us. The occasion of construction of Shri Ram mandir in Ayodhya marks reawakening of national pride. This also signifies acceptance of the vision of life behind the character of Shri Ram by modern Bharatiya society. Lord Shri Ram is to be worshiped in the temple with rituals of ‘Patram, Pushpam, Phalam, Toyam’ (leaves, flowers, fruits and water) and at the same time, by establishing image of Shri Ram in our minds, in the light of the same inculcating ideal conduct, we have to worship Shri Ram. As “Shivo Bhootva Shivam Bhajet, Ramo Bhootva Ramam Bhajet” (to worship Shiva, Be Shiva, to worship Ram, be Ram) is called true worship. If we consider from this point of view, then according to the social nature of Bharatiya culture, we need to imbibe “Matravat Pardareshu , Pardravyeshu Loshtvat. Atmavat sarvabhuteshu , yah pasyati sah panditah” (He is a wise man who sees the wives of others as his mother, the wealth of others like clod of earth and all beings as his own

Ayodhya Overtakes Mecca, Vatican in Footfall

Bharat Hindus

681

Ayodhya Overtakes Mecca, Vatican in Footfall

One Year after Bhagwan Ram Lalla’s Pran Pratishta, the holy town holds out hope to be fulcrum of Hindu renaissance. Pummy Pandita Bhagwan Ram’s Pran Pratishta in January 2024 at his very birthplace in Ayodhya marked a new chapter in cultural and spiritual journey of Bharat. Since the construction of magnificent temple as abode of Ram Lalla, Ayodhya has undergone a transformation that devout Hindus connect to in spiritual terms and practicing faith. There’s no denying that Ayodhya, once a neglected, haunted and disconnected small town, is not any of these anymore. It’s bustling with devout people converging to Ayodhya by road, airways and superfast trains’ network. Infrastructure in Ayodhya has also undergone a sea change with roads, waterways and huge tourism circuit with hospitality points coming up in last one year. Footfall in Ayodhya as per estimates has crossed that of Vatican (6.7 Mn in 2023) and Mecca (1.83 Mn in 2024) many times over. As per Hindu calendar, January 11, 2025 marks first anniversary of Prana Pratishtha of Bhagwan Ram Lalla and the day would be celebrated as “Pratishtha Dwadashi” at Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya. A clutch of religious rites, devotional recitations, cultural acts and spiritual talks will be performed at the sanctum sanctorum and the entire Ayodhya Dham. Over three crore people are expected to witness the grand celebrations of Shri Ram’s Pran Pratishtha anniversary. Spiritual ceremonies will be held at Yajna Mandap, a dedicated location within the Mandir premises at break of dawn to kick off the celebrations. The Agnihotra ceremony involving lighting of fire will take place during 8 am – 11 am and again between 2 pm to 5 pm. This age-old Vedic practice is known for spiritual and cleansing and is carried out using mantras from Sukla Yajurveda. In addition to purifying the area, the ceremony will aid in fostering a spiritually uplifting atmosphere for the day’s activities. Highlights of the Day: Shri Ram’s Prasad, that’s regarded as a celestial blessing, will be offered all day long to devotees from early morning hours reflecting Bhagwan Ram’s grace. A Year of Record-breaking Footfall Shri Ram Lalla’s Pran Pratishtha has turned Ayodhya into a popular pilgrimage centre. An unprecedented 15 million pilgrims are estimated to have visited Shri Ram Mandir to seek the blessings of Shri Ram Lalla. Temple’s tremendous appeal was highlighted by daily footfall exceeding two lakh people daily during peak seasons like Ram Navami and Deepawali. Due to this massive influx of visitors, Ayodhya is now on par with Varanasi and Tirupati as one of India’s most popular pilgrimage destinations and overtaken both Mecca and Vatican, the two religious centres for faithful Muslims and catholic Christians respectively. Wider road networks, better train connectivity and recently opened Ayodhya International Airport have contributed to the boom in tourism. These advancements have made it easier for pilgrims from all over Bharat and the world to travel to Ayodhya. Economic Windfall Ayodhya has experienced exceptional economic growth due to constant influx of devotees. As per local authorities, the city’s yearly income from tourism-related activities has more than doubled hitting almost ₹4000 crore (approximately half a billion US dollars) in the most recent year – the key contributors included pilgrims’ arrival that has brought in about ₹15,000 crore ($1.8 billion) in tourism-related income. Occupancy rates at local establishments, such as restaurants, motels and guesthouses have increased significantly, surpassing 90 per cent during busy times. Infrastructure Development Realizing Ayodhya’s potential to into a world hub of spirituality, Uttar Pradesh state and Bharat’s central governments has made significant infrastructure investments: Spiritual and Cultural Renaissance Ram Lalla’s return to his abode and birthplace has ignited a cultural revival in Ayodhya. The city is now a thriving centre of faith based activity thanks to regular kirtans, bhajans and spiritual talks. To raise awareness of Shri Ram’s teachings, temple administration has planned a number of events that draw both young people and academics. Shri Ram Lalla’s return to Ayodhya also represents a cultural revival. It has inspired a generation to reconnect with their heritage and rekindled interest in Bharat’s legendary stories. The temple’s exquisite carvings and imposing construction serve as a tribute to the magnificence of traditional Indian craftsmanship. In addition to revitalising millions of people’s spiritual ties, Shri Ram Lalla’s Pran Pratishtha has transformed Ayodhya into a centre for both cultural and economic renaissance. Ayodhya is a living example of transformational power of Hindu faith as the city continues to change, striking a balance between its rich legacy and contemporary goals. While the first year of Shri Ram’s homecoming is significant, this holy place is expected to make even more waves in years to come. (Author is head of operations at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)Ayodhya Overtakes Mecca, Vatican in Footfall

Geopolitics Policy

489

Bharat – Islamic Confluence

From Decades of Dormancy to Dynamic Diplomacy: How PM Modi’s Kuwait Visit Redefined Bharat’s Global Engagements. Vinod Kumar Shukla There is a misnomer that foreign policy of any country remains more or less the same while governments come and go. This is not true. Actually, it changes with the kind of government a country has from being submissive to assertive. Look at the case of Bharat where, ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over, engagements with gulf countries have been of mutual interest by de-bracketing them from solely being Islamic nations, a great departure from the erstwhile Pakistan-centric foreign policy. Bharat has made its Western neighbour’s self-styled claim of being a stakeholder everywhere especially with Islamic nations meaningless. The engagement of Bharat with rest of the global communities are on equal footings. Ushering in a new era of global engagements, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed his concern during his Kuwait visit from December 21-22, 2024 stated that “it takes four hours to reach Kuwait from India but it took four decades for the Prime Minister.” This is despite the fact that over a million people of Bharat in Kuwait are the largest expatriate community which is regarded as the community of first preference among expatriates. The Gulf nation is a key source of investment for Bharat from the current president, Shaikh Mishal Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, the Amir of Kuwait, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Approximately 89 per cent of the total FDI from the GCC has been received in the last decade and bilateral trade between India and Kuwait in the last financial year was over $10 billion. The PM’s Kuwait visit is to further strengthen bilateral ties, operationalise security agreements that have been moving at a snail’s pace. Prime Minister Modi has been trying to make West Asia a trade gateway for the rest of Asia and Europe and create a business-friendly environment to invite and secure investments in the region. Bharat’s bilateral relations with most of the Gulf countries by de-bracketing Pakistan is no less than an achievement for any government. Now most of the countries are keen on deeper bilateral ties. But the way Kuwait facilitated PM’s interactions with diaspora and respected New Delhi’s sensitivities on cultural and religious matters, it clearly indicates Bharat’s growing diplomatic clout not only in the region but globally as well. West Asian countries are generally considered as oil supplying nations but Modi dispensation looks at them with mutual trust and opportunity in gamut of issues. Besides trade, regional security is another concern. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and post-Assad instability in Syria are matters of concern. They are not only impacting regional security but also business prospects. Diplomatically cornering Pakistan, the two sides unequivocally condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including cross-border terrorism and called for disrupting of terrorism financing networks and safe havens, and dismantling of terror infrastructure during PM’s visit. They agreed to enhance cooperation in counter-terrorism operations, information and intelligence sharing, developing and exchanging experiences, best practices and technologies, capacity building and to strengthen cooperation in law enforcement, anti-money laundering, drug-trafficking and other transnational crimes. The two sides discussed ways and means to promote cooperation in cybersecurity, including prevention of use of cyberspace for terrorism, radicalisation and for disturbing social harmony. Defence cooperation is another area of mutual benefit and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between India and Kuwait to institutionalize bilateral cooperation in defence that included training, exchange of personnel and experts, joint exercises, cooperation in defence industry, supply of defence equipment, and collaboration in research and development, among others. India is gradually emerging as a defence exporting nation in a big way with its Make in India programme. The other issue that is very dear to the PM is solar energy (green energy) and making an oil exporting country like Kuwait the member of International Solar Alliance (ISA) is certainly a big deal. The world knows it well that solar energy is the future as fossil fuels are not forever. The ISA collectively covers the deployment of solar energy and addresses key common challenges to scale up its use to help member countries to develop low-carbon growth trajectories. Reducing carbon footprint is a global challenge and India has lived up to its global commitment. It wants others including developed nations to follow suit. Cultural linkages with West Asia are age-old and Bharat has always been wanting to continue which the PM has always been mentioning in his speeches. An understanding about Cultural Exchange Programme (CEP) between India and Kuwait for the years 2025-2029 has been reached about which would facilitate greater cultural exchanges in art, music, dance, literature and theatre, cooperation in preservation of cultural heritage, research and development in the area of culture and organizing of festivals. Sports is another area where India needs to do better and cooperation with friendly nations will help them to excel together. Executive Programme (EP) for Cooperation in the Field of Sports (2025-2028) is a similar measure that India and Kuwait have arrived at during PM’s recent visit which will strengthen bilateral cooperation in the field of sports by promoting exchange of visits of sports leaders for experience sharing, participation in programs and projects in the field of sports, exchange of expertise in sports medicine, sports management, sports media, sports science, among others. Most importantly, the persona and initiatives of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been so overwhelming that Kuwait has bestowed upon him its highest knighthood order ‘The Order of Mubarak Al Kabeer’ which is the 20th international honour given to him. During his visit, the PM met with Crown Prince of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah and discussed the importance to Bharat’s bilateral relations with Kuwait acknowledging that bilateral relations were progressing well and welcomed their elevation to a strategic partnership. They emphasized on close coordination between both sides in UN and other multilateral fora where India is not only seeking major reform and is emerging as an important player. In the context of the UN reforms, both leaders emphasized on the

Geopolitics United States

486

Disruption in World Order Guaranteed!

Donald Trump’s second term may not allow ‘business as usual’ approach to global affairs given underpinnings of ‘Make America Great Again’ thrust. K.A.Badarinath Across continents one big question that’s seriously debated and pored over is what’s in store during second term of President Donald Trump that would kick off in three weeks from now. Jokes, boardroom banter, hate, repulsion to cult following notwithstanding, Donald John Trump cannot be ignored as President United States of America (USA) given the landslide mandate that Americans have given him. One can rest be assured, he would make next four years very eventful at Oval Office after having gained serious insights into functioning of the Presidential role in his first term that ended in turbulence. Trump would not let the world forget in a hurry that he’s the only President who has been returned to White House after eviction from White House after Grover Cleveland several decades ago. Hence, it’s not surprising that from Africa, Asia, Europe to West Asia, tongues have begun to wag on state of play with staunch and determined Republican President at the hot seat in White House. But, what can easily be predicted is pursuit of aggressive ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ that would dominate Trump Presidency on all fronts, be it economy, investment and trade, civilizational ties, diplomatic engagements, wars and conflicts in which US has direct or indirect linkages. Ultra nationalist sentiment of Western variety will have a sway during Trump regime within and beyond American borders. Expressive articulation of America First and Make America Great Again cannot be missed. A thorough review of all engagements including Israel, Ukraine and other conflict zones would become a priority for President Trump. And, rogue states like Pakistan are expected to face big time shove if Trump has his way. China may top Trump agenda with 50 per cent tariffs proposed on all exports to United States to rebalance bilateral trade. These levies would turn as many products non-competitive forcing Bejing to rethink its export strategy using third country labels to overcome the proposed tariff barriers. Bharat along with other BRICS member countries have already been put on alert as Trump has threatened with 100 per cent tariffs if the big developing countries went ahead with a common currency regime rivalling the American dollar. ‘De-dollarization’ move apart, Bharat may have to revisit its list of 30 US goods identified in 2018 and approached World Trade Organization for levying retaliatory tariffs on US. Also, sticky issues like Gautam Adani’s case in American courts and reported life bid on Khalistani terrorist Gurupatwant Singh Pannun will have to be dealt with deftly. Of late, growing anti-Bharat sentiment being belted out by American media outlets especially following Sriram Krishnan’s appointment as advisor on artificial intelligence to Trump may have to be addressed. Future of H1B work visas, US citizenship to children of such visas has turned absolutely uncertain. President Trump may have to take a call on this key issue. On two occasions in his first term, Trump had referred to 50 per cent restrictive duties on Harley Davidson motorcycles by Bharat. Even after his re-election in recent weeks, President-elect Trump described Bharat as ‘tariff king’. He conveniently chose to not refer to hiked tariffs on Indian steel and metallic products exports by him in his first term. Though the volume and value of defence exports to US are modest at US $ 1.5 billion, they may come under scanner of quixotic Trump. There are several such Indian export items that may be put to scrutiny by new regime. No wonder, Prime Minister Narendra Modi despatched his foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to US in preparation for bilateral engagement with the ‘Don’. Modi who shares personal rapport with Donald Trump is expected to find a way out given that Indian investors are waiting in the wings to take larger positions – directly or indirectly — in US markets. President Trump would prioritize huge cuts in ‘federal spending’ of ‘non-essential’ and ‘non-strategic’ expenses by his government given the burgeoning long term deficits that US has piled up over years. Every dollar spent may be accounted for especially with technology czars like Elon Musk breathing down the neck pushing for ‘government efficiency’ on resources. Under President Trump, ‘radical left lunatics’ may get a big bashing on the butt that would eventually inflict damage on support structures for democrats. These Left hardliners have been peddling narratives that ‘liberal, open democratic character’ of US was under threat once the ‘Don’s’ second term began in 2025. Narrative battles in US between Left leaning ‘self-proclaimed’ liberals and Republicans under Donald Trump are expected to intensify further. Basically, ‘business as usual’ may not be possible with Donald Trump. Be it Canada, Panama, Greenland, Syria or elsewhere, there’s bound to be restlessness in Republican White House demanding a big changeover. Donald Trump seeking to turn Canada into 51st state of US sent shivers for Justin Trudeau who’s fighting with his back to the wall seeking re-election later next year. Here again, Trump demanded lowering of tariffs and in return offered US security cover to Canadians as fifty first state. Similarly, Panama was put on notice by Donald Trump who made two significant points from his perspective. One, the Panama Canal was being illegally controlled by Chinese people liberation army and the tariffs on movement of American goods were too huge that warranted a rollback. Thirdly, Donald Trump may have hit a raw nerve when he sought American pound of flesh in administration of resources-rich Greenland. Given that European Union has effective control on Greenland, Brussels may not take Trump’s comments rather lightly and forced to engage with him on the issue apart from legal migration and infiltration across US and EU member countries. Donald Trump may like to leave his imprint as a global leader in his four-year regime that’s bound to be eventful and has the potential to change face of global engagement. (Author is Director & Chief Executive at

Bhutan China

584

China, A Tough Nut to Crack

China may not be a dependable ally for Bharat. Reconciliation and reset noises made by President Xi’s hawks could be tactical and unsustainable. Dr Amritpal Kaur Is China a dependable ally for Bharat? Or, is it safe to play a balancing act between China under President Xi Jingping and US where Donald Trump is expected to take charge as President beginning 2025? Both Beijing and Washington DC pose different sets of challenges given Bharat’s 75-years’ experience post-independence from British imperialistic rule. At a time when there has been huge debate on ‘strategic autonomy’ as an instrument of Bharat’s state policy, there have been key developments ranging from threats hurled by US President-designate Donald Trump on tariffs regime to Beijing moving to purportedly normalize relations with Bharat. Undertones of the incoming Republican regime and firmly trenched third-term Chinese Communist Party regimes are different. At a time when strategists in New Delhi were breathing easy at lasting solution to clashes on Eastern Ladakh front, China opened a new front on Dokolam front with contours of its expansionist face coming to the fore. Reportedly, China encroached into Bhutanese territory, crossed the buffer zone and put up as many as 22 villages in last eight years. Drone images of these villages constructed on Bhutanese territory and splashed on front pages of major Bharat newspapers reflected on the intent of Chinese communist party regime. Parceling away pieces of neighbours’ territory and encroachment by design has been well rehearsed strategy of dragon regime. These images apart from US closing-in that China has never backed out from both Ladakh and Dokolam front came at a time when Bharat’s national security advisor Ajit Doval was in Beijing to attempt ‘normalizing’ relations with President Xi’s hardnosed negotiators. Ramifications of Chinese incursions into Bhutanese territory have strategic and regional security implications. China’s deliberate efforts to alter ground realities and impose a fait accompli are seen in construction of settlements on the Doklam plateau, a region vital to India’s Siliguri Corridor. In violation of 1998 China-Bhutan agreement which explicitly calls for maintaining status quo and refraining from unilaterally altering borders, this makes an absurdity of China’s claims and evasive justifications for the acts. These advances are a flagrant imitation of China’s use of armed force to occupy South China Sea in order to evade its duties under international law and further its expansionist objectives. It’s in this backdrop that cautious attempts made to resolve broader Bharat -China ties have taken place. On October 21, 2024 on sidelines of BRICS summit in Kazan Russia, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached a patrolling agreement on the Line of Actual Control leading to disengagement in areas where issues had arisen in 2020. This announcement paved way for a brief meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping on sidelines of BRICS summit, a first in about five years since Galwan clashes of 2020. On November 19, Bharat’s Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on sidelines of G-20 Summit in Rio De Janeiro. He was matter of fact and reiterated that disengagement at two contentious points on Indo-Chinese Border is a ‘welcome step’. There is a long way to go in Indo-China relations and it’s a fact. A day after, on November 20, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh met his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun on sidelines of Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus in Vientiane, Laos where he too stressed on need to maintain harmonious relations between the two Asian neighbors. Flurry of meetings indicate possible rapprochement between India and China according to optimists. But, caution is imperative given history of the two Asian giants coupled with present day real politic. It is hard to miss conspicuous concoction of events and processes happening around which have forced Chinese to even concede that border disengagement was going on, something to their eyes a tactical compromise giving away the psychological advantage to Bharat. Given that Chinese rarely give away the territory they captured after ‘salami-slicing’ the pressure must have been great for Beijing to engage with India in a positive way. The question it begs is, what exactly changed for the Chinese in past two years that from showing off the Commander of Galwan clash as the hero in the National Assembly, which crowned President Xi with unprecedented third term, to a visible attempt at bonhomie with India? It is significant to look beyond South Asia to recent happenings in the world. To begin with, United States elected Donald Trump as its new President. If previous Trump administration is guide to his second term outlook, Chinese have a reason to brace themselves for the ride. Coupled with military maneuvering of PLA in Taiwan Strait to indicate the tensions between China and Taiwan, it makes sense for them to not open another front with India, so that focus remains on its southeast border. Secondly, Chinese ally Russia is fighting war in Europe for more than two years now and another ally Iran is engaged in West Asian conflict with Israel which has potential to spill out into the larger region war creating stress on the Sea lanes of trade and communication, something crucial for China. In strategic parlance, it makes sense to not open another theater of conflict or at least keep other areas peaceful should the push comes to shove, but the sensible would see the game and ask whether underlying structural problems in Indo-Chinese relations have been resolved before we declare the ‘reset’ of ties. If History is the guide to Indo-China relations, beyond early days of Nehru era, relations between the two were never ‘friendly’. Chinese internal conversations show that even then India was seen as stooge of Imperial Britain and Liberal democracy which is diagonally opposite Communist China. The era of reforms and globalization had given hope to believe that thriving trade and commerce would act as a credible deterrence against any hostilities, but even here the unhealthy trade deficit between the two

Geopolitics Leadership

608

India at G 20: Rio de Janeiro Summit

India’s commitment to broader global engagement is demonstrated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 18–19 sojourn to Rio de Janeiro and his proactive participation in G 20 Summit among world leaders. Modi’s participation in G 20 summit demonstrates Bharat’s commitment to multilateralism and enrolling diverse partners. His “productive” official visit to Nigeria was centred on improved relations with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Indian diaspora. As India’s representative at G 20 summit, Modi shouldered the responsibilities of the country’s G20 leadership and her ambitious agenda for global transformation and inclusivity. (Author is a doctoral fellow at Amity University in Gwalior, content manager at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, New Delhi)

Hindus Human Rights Pakistan Security World

858

Hindus are Safe in Bangladesh, Really?

Zafar Sobhan, ��The Print’ made false, tall claims about fair treatment to Hindus. Bangladesh President Yunus came close to stating the truth, Are Hindus really not under threat from jihadists in Bangladesh? Are they safer than Muslims and other minorities in India? Well, Zafar Sobhan in a write up has made vague but determined attempt to whitewash continued atrocities against Hindus with no letup in the genocidal campaign. But, Sobhan falsely claimed that Hindus were safe in turbulent, unsettling and violence ridden Bangladesh ignoring the publicly available data, case studies and unhindered persecution. ‘The Print’ provided its columns to Zafar Sobhan for spreading these falsehoods like agenda-based international media organizations like Al Jazeera etc. This response will methodically debunk Zafar’s fallacies and provide a true picture of minority conditions in Bangladesh. From rapes, violent attacks, forced resignation of Hindu officials to loot and occupation of their properties has become the norm while the likes of Zafar look the other way. As per Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Hindu population in the country has dropped drastically to 8.5 per cent in 2011and down further in last 13 years from 13.5 per cent in 1974. This demographic shift is not merely result of migration for economic opportunities but deeply intertwined with systemic discrimination, land dispossession through Vested Property Act and constant incidents of targeted attacks on Hindu society. By design and intent, Zafar seems to have downplayed incidences of violence against minorities in Bangladesh, implying that such incidents were isolated and do not reflect greater societal issues. Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies investigations uncover that Hindu temples, businesses and houses are frequently and widely attacked particularly during times of recent political turmoil. These occurrences are not random acts of violence; they are frequently coordinated by extremist groups aiming to impose control or exploit political instability. Data for June – August 2024 indicate an organized attempt to intimidate, harm and ultimately wipe out Hindu population in Bangladesh. The attacks were carried out in several areas, targeting vulnerable individuals and religious sites. Temples in Moulvi bazar, Chittagong and Sitakunda are a few known cases of desecration that highlighted coordinated campaign of genocide and eradication. Zafar offered to paint the violent political movement that resulted in Sheikh Hasina’s departure as ‘democratic uprising free of Islamist influence’. This portrayal is inaccurate and ignores the complex realities of Bangladesh’s political scene. Islamist Influence and Extremism Emergence of extreme Islamist outfits such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam in Bangladesh’s political setting cannot be ignored. These organizations have documented history of campaigning for policies that oppress minorities and undermine the concept of secularism. Zafar’s denial of Islamist involvement in contemporary political movements is not supported by facts which demonstrates that these outfits have used political turmoil to promote their interests at the cost of minority oppression. Political Transitions’ Impact on Minorities In Bangladesh, it is a trend for minorities to become the targets of violent attacks during any political movements. An example of the kind of widespread violence that can result in deaths, serious injuries, significant property destruction, and vandalism of temples, was in 2021 during Durga Puja. These events demonstrate how vulnerable minorities are during times of political instability, contradicting Zafar’s assertion that minorities are safer in Bangladesh. Over years, persecution and intentional attacks against the Hindu community in Bangladesh have had a profound and long-lasting effect. For instance, massive violence against Hindus erupted in 2013 when Jamaat-e-Islami leader Delwar Hossain Sayeedi was found convicted. Around 50 temples were attacked and more than 1,500 Hindu homes were demolished. This incident fits into a larger pattern in which elections and political upheaval are followed by violent attacks against Hindus. Numerous instances occurred between 2013 and 2020, one of which was looting and demolition of 500 Hindu homes in Gopalpur village alone during the 2014 post-election riots. These acts demonstrate how this religious minority in Bangladesh is subjected to systematic and ongoing persecution. Historical Background, Persecution and Displacement It is critical to comprehend the historical background in order to evaluate current state of minority affairs in Bangladesh. The long-term patterns that have influenced lives of minorities in Bangladesh have not been sufficiently taken into account by Zafar Sobhan. Periods of severe persecution are a defining feature of the history of minorities in Bangladesh, especially during and after the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Deliberate persecution of Hindus throughout the conflict and ensuing appropriation of land under the Vested Property Act have left a lasting impact on the community, leading to their uprooting and economic marginalization. During the time of struggle for Bangladesh Liberation, on March 25, 1971, the Pakistani military launched a horrific operation of genocide against Bengalis, notably on the Hindu community. Around three million individuals were killed in systematic atrocities during this genocide, which lasted until Bangladesh gained independence on December 16, 1971. At least 200,000 women were raped, and some estimates put the figure as high as 400,000. Brutality such as the Burunga massacre of May 26, 1971, when 94 Hindus were brutally killed by the Pakistani military at Burunga High School, marked the darkest height of the genocide. Over 10 million Bengalis, mostly Hindus, were forced to flee to India as a result of extensive atrocities committed by the Pakistani army, which saw no distinction between Hindu, Bengali, and Indian identities. In the blunt repercussions of the Babri structure demolition in India, Islamist groups in Bangladesh began a violent massacre against Bengali Hindus on December 7, 1992. The earliest target was the Dhakeshwari Temple in Dhaka, which was attacked and set on fire. Further targets were the Bholanath Giri Ashram, which was robbed, and the Hindu-owned jewelry stores in old Dhaka, which were destroyed. The following days saw more bloodshed when Islamist attackers in Cox’s Bazar District set fire to fourteen Hindu temples and demolished 51 Hindu houses in Ali Akbar Dale. Five temples suffered significant damage, and villages in Chittagong District such as Fatikchari and Mireswari were nearly completely destroyed by fire. By the time the

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