Bharat China Economy Geopolitics International Leadership Policy

India and the Next BRICS: Turning Diversity into Strategic Influence

Sankalp Singh Chauhan India’s historic BRICS Presidency comes at a defining moment for the global order. Its challenge is not to build another bloc, but to make a more diverse world capable of working together. What began as BRIC, Brazil, Russia, India and China, formally came together at its first summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009, transformed it into BRICS after South Africa’s inclusion. For more than a decade the five-country grouping steadily developed cooperation in finance, development and global governance. The major expansion of 2024 brought Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into the fold, while Indonesia joined in 2025, taking BRICS to 11 full members. India now assumes the chair at a particularly consequential moment: the grouping has evolved from a compact association of emerging economies into a much broader platform representing a significant voice of the Global South. The world itself is entering an era of profound geopolitical and economic realignment. Wars and conflicts, supply-chain disruptions, economic uncertainty, technological competition and growing dissatisfaction with existing multilateral institutions are reshaping the international system. Against this backdrop, India’s 2026 Presidency is not merely another turn in the rotational calendar; it is an opportunity to shape what the expanded BRICS becomes next. With 11 full members, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, BRICS now has considerably greater geopolitical and economic weight. Its influence is further widened by 10 partner countries viz., Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. This expansion gives BRICS greater reach, but also a harder task: how can countries with different political systems, economic interests and strategic priorities translate diversity into cooperation? That is where India can make a distinctive contribution. From Expansion to Delivery: India’s presidency has an opportunity to move BRICS beyond declarations and towards practical cooperation. The priorities are clear: trade and investment, resilient supply chains, energy and food security, health, climate action, digital public infrastructure, technology, connectivity and reform of global institutions. The test will be whether these priorities produce institutions and mechanisms that citizens and businesses can actually use. India’s experience with digital public infrastructure offers an important model. Greater interoperability of digital payment systems, cross-border transactions and financial technology could lower transaction costs and strengthen economic ties across the Global South. The ambition should be neither isolation from the West nor confrontation with it. It should be strategic autonomy combined with inclusive multilateralism. The Currency Question: Few ideas surrounding BRICS attract as much attention as the possibility of a BRICS currency. Yet credibility requires distinguishing aspiration from reality. A common currency is not an established BRICS policy. The more immediate and practical path is the expansion of local-currency trade, payment-system interoperability and alternative cross-border financial mechanisms. Over time, these could evolve into a broader financial architecture, including a possible common unit of account or other settlement mechanism, without requiring an immediate monetary union. The objective is therefore not simply “de-dollarisation.” It is to create more choice, resilience and efficiency in international finance. BRICS as an Innovation Platform: The next phase of BRICS should also be defined by technological cooperation. Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biotechnology, quantum technologies, space, clean energy, agricultural technology and digital commerce offer areas where emerging economies can move from being technology consumers to technology creators. A BRICS innovation ecosystem, supported by research partnerships, start-up networks, technology funds and easier movement of knowledge and capital, could become one of the grouping’s most consequential long-term projects. Equally important are areas of human security: affordable healthcare, food security, climate resilience, disaster management and sustainable infrastructure. A Wider Global South: The expansion of BRICS has made its relationship with the wider developing world increasingly important. Partner countries and BRICS Plus outreach can give smaller and emerging economies a greater voice without requiring every country to become a full member. This broader architecture could become one of BRICS’s greatest strengths, provided expansion does not overwhelm decision-making. India’s diplomatic challenge is therefore to build consensus without sacrificing ambition. What Success Should Look Like: The success of India’s Presidency should ultimately be judged not by the number of declarations issued, but by what changes after the summit. First, BRICS should deliver measurable progress in trade and investment, including easier market access, stronger supply-chain resilience, greater MSME participation and mechanisms that make South-South commerce faster and less costly. Second, it should advance a genuinely connected digital and financial architecture. Interoperable payment systems, greater use of national currencies and more efficient cross-border settlements could provide an immediate, practical foundation for deeper financial cooperation. Third, success should mean tangible cooperation in energy, food, health and climate security. In a world vulnerable to energy shocks, food disruptions, pandemics and extreme weather, these are not peripheral development issues; they are questions of global stability. Fourth, BRICS should create an innovation and technology agenda capable of connecting universities, researchers, entrepreneurs and industries across member and partner countries. Cooperation in AI, semiconductors, biotechnology, quantum technology, space and clean energy could determine whether the Global South becomes merely a larger market or a major source of future innovation. Finally, India’s Presidency should strengthen the voice of developing countries in global governance. Reform of institutions such as the United Nations, IMF and World Bank should aim at greater representation, legitimacy and responsiveness, not at replacing one hierarchy with another. Perhaps the most important measure of success will be whether BRICS can demonstrate that geopolitical diversity does not have to produce institutional paralysis. Can countries with competing strategic interests still cooperate on issues of common interest? Can BRICS remain economically ambitious without becoming an anti-Western alliance? Can its expanded membership create wider representation without diluting effectiveness? And can India preserve its role as a bridge between competing centres of power? If the answer is yes, BRICS could move from being primarily a grouping of emerging economies to becoming a credible platform for a more balanced international system. India’s role will be central to that transition. India has

Bharat Geopolitics Policy Press Release Trade World

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PRESS NOTE: CIHS Hosted Interactive Session with Ambassador of Poland

New Delhi, August 21, 2026 – The Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies (CIHS), held an engaging and insightful interactive session on “India-Poland People Connect” with H.E. Dr. Piotr Antoni Świtalski, Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to India, at India Habitat Centre (IHC), Maple Room, Lodhi Road, New Delhi The thought-provoking discussion on Indo-Poland civilizational, cultural and people-to-people connection in a rapidly changing global order brought together scholars, policy experts and strategic thinkers to examine multifaceted ties between India and Poland, covering areas such as diplomacy, trade, education, cultural exchange and technology cooperation. In his welcome address K.A. Badarinath, Chief Executive and Director at CIHS, emphasised strong cultural, civilizational and democratic values that bind the Indo-Poland Relationship. He highlighted the necessity of enhancing people-to-people connectivity, cultural and civilizational bonds and strong international associations in shaping a peaceful and prosperous future for global communities. H.E. Piotr Antoni Switalski, in his address, highlighted shared values and historical linkages between India and Poland and called Poland’s economic rise an “economic miracle” powered by human capital, much like modern India. “With trade at $ 5 billion, there is a huge potential to double it, urging India to “use Poland” as a friendly gateway to Europe,” he noted. H.E. Piotr Antoni Świtalski, Ambassador of Poland to India, described India as a highly “effective partner” at a time when the world faces increasing unpredictability and “many disruptive forces.” He emphasised that Poland understands India’s longstanding defence relationship with Russia and believes that “Russia should not stand in the way of our dialogue, our cooperation and our partnership. We leave it aside.” On Poland’s relations with Pakistan, H.E. Świtalski said that while Warsaw maintains diplomatic and economic ties with Islamabad, this should not be interpreted as an anti-India position. During the interactive session, participants raised thought-provoking questions on topics ranging from terrorism to trade, H.E. Switalski responded with openness stating that Poland supports India’s “right to pursue terrorists everywhere they go and his country is on India’s side when it comes to fighting terrorism because “we are a victim” of that too. Delivering a vote of thanks, Rahul Pawa, Director of Research at CIHS, expressed gratitude to H.E. Dr. Piotr Antoni Świtalski for his invaluable insights and openness, to the distinguished scholars for their participation and contributing to a meaningful dialogue that reaffirmed the importance of fostering connections between people. “India and Poland are not new acquaintances. Our connection is centuries old and one can see it everywhere in streets of Warsaw and Łódź that carry the names of Gandhi and Tagore, in a century of Sanskrit scholarship at Warsaw and at Kraków and in yoga schools across Poland that have outlasted several political systems,” he noted. CIHS is committed to strengthening this sacred bond through research, cultural dialogue and by serving as a bridge for sustained discussion and deeper people-to-people connections. At CIHS, we believe that cooperation between states endures only when it rests on connection between people.

Bharat Education Policy Politics Security

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Scientific Deconstruct of Cockroaches

Jantar Mantar protests were never just about students. Foreign-funded NGOs, radical Islamists, Maoists, criminals and church, gave a lethal twist to the campaign. K.A. Badarinath A scientific deconstruction of what Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) and its 49-days violence ridden protests at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi warrants looking beyond the ordinary. Neither the protests were simply about leak of papers relating to national examinations for admitting students to top medical colleges nor were they instant outpour of students anger against the system alone. Possibly there were a couple of thousands of students and their parents that were genuinely agitated about leak of entrance exams papers. A big chunk of the protestors was with questionable background or their intent needs closer scrutiny. Resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan was demanded and achieved. What next is the lingering question that haunts a lot number of gentry. Will Pradhan’s exit from the council of ministers solve the issues relating to education sector? If one were to go by media reports there were over 46 such leaks in states and centre pre-2014 before this government took charge of Bharat’s affairs. Has resignation of education ministers of these states or at centre been demanded? Was the ‘education mafia’ tackled then is the moot question? Some reports suggest that cleanup of education system undertaken by this government was to be side-stepped and hence the cockroaches demanded his resignation. One report suggested that even change of portfolio was not acceptable to agitators who held the capital to ransom as hooligans took over the streets. Gridlock aside, who are these cockroaches that ratcheted up big time following on the insta and other social media handles that pushed the envelope? A big section of bureaucracy and political leadership is so much overwhelmed that they are not even willing to look at facts and begin the pushback. A Delhi Police analysis based on its Crime Kundli database and face recognition technology, over 2873 individuals with criminal background ‘infiltrated’ or took over the students protest that swelled to about 20,000 at its peak. Murder, robbery, dacoity, crime against women, drug peddling those with heinous criminal background were zeroed upon in their first set analysis. Illegal arms peddlers, chain snatchers and kidnappers also made their way into the protests that were marked by huge attacks on the Delhi Police force. Antagonists of Delhi Police did not waste time to question the database and its findings. They were out to claim that Delhi Police was attempting to paint the cockroaches protest black. As Delhi’s veteran crime reporters would vouch, this database is one of the most scientifically built assets to tackle crime in the national capital. It has not been created to denigrate two months old cockroaches born out of a satirical statement made by Honourable Chief Justice of India, founded and allegedly funded by foreign powers that be. How did so many crime-sheeters make it to the protest? Who mobilized them? There’s no plausible answer as of now. And now, they have the gumption to question the very authority of Supreme Court of India on proceeding against criminals linked to protests. Social media is awash with reports that Malayali businessman Mohammed Shaji of Dubai based Abreco Freight flew 23 of his employees to participate in the Cockroaches protest spending thousands of dollars. Big question is what’s the link between the two sides. Shaji reportedly facing issues with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government covered all expenses for these employees and even provided some extra incentives to motivate their participation in this protest. Has anyone cared to find out the international linkages of these cockroaches? Has deep dive analysis been made into lethal twist given to cockroaches’ protest at Jantar Mantar by Bhim Army and its chief Chandrashekhar Azad? The Nagina member of parliament not only extended his support to the Abhijit Dipke led CJP but actively fore-fronted the sit-in within and outside the Parliament premises. An elected Member of Parliament wedded to a certain ideology has full freedom to do what he did. He reportedly mobilized people on the ground, gave violent edge to the protesters who repeatedly claimed it was ‘peaceful and violence free’. There was nothing peaceful about the protests whatsoever. Bhim Party that was born out of divisive ideological moorings and sectarian agenda did its bit to lend numbers, logistical support and even partly funded the campaign that largely metamorphosed into one against Modi government, Bharat and RSS. Azad who dabbled with Congress, Left parties and Samajwadis in northern state of Uttar Pradesh has had his face off with law enforcement agencies in the past as well. While these Azad hooligans turned protests into an unruly affair, charges were made that Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its supporters were responsible for the protestors’ violence. Now comes the question of All India Students Association (AISA) that mobilized some youngsters from the Jawaharlal Nehru University and elsewhere. AISA is itself fighting for seeking relevance given that its parent Left extreme ideological assorted Naxalite groups have virtually folded up. AISA came into being as recruiting ground for all Marxist, Leninist armed groups including peoples war group whose Radical Students Union was merged into this outfit in a new avtar. AISA’s participation and some of its activists undertaking a fast along with Sonam Wangchuk is only a feeble attempt to revive the spirit of ‘naxalite revolution’, propagate the ideology of annihilation and wage an armed struggle against elected governments. Did splinter Naxalite groups on the run also become an active part of these protests? Has anyone examined this question? What was the role of Neha and her brand of CPI ML – Liberation activists? Did they see an opportunity in the Jantar Mantar protests to corner Modi government that was breathing down the neck of Maoist guerillas forcing their surrender or elimination? Now comes the radical Islamists link to the protests that were never spontaneous nor democratic, simple and plain. Bangladesh’s Jamaat e Islaami was abnormally active during the protests lending support

Bharat Hindus Judiciary Leadership Policy

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Bhojshala Verdict: Constitutional and Historical Perspectives

On May 15, 2026, the Indore Bench of the Madhya Pradesh High Court delivered a historic decision recognizing the Bhojshala complex as the temple of Goddess Vagdevi (Saraswati), overturning 2003 dual-use arrangement barring namaz on Fridays inside the site. Court established an evidence-based system for resolving heritage disputes based on the ASI’s 2024 scientific study, historical evidence connecting the site to Raja Bhoj’s Paramara-era Sanskrit learning center and the persistence of Hindu worship while allowing the Muslim community to seek alternate site for a mosque in the Dhar area. The decision, which prioritises historical and archeological evidence over administrative compromise, is a significant development in India’s heritage jurisprudence.

Bharat Business Economy Geopolitics International Policy Politics Trade United States USA War World

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Pragmatism Over Ambition

BRICS currency may not be shelved all together. Non-dollar settlements, digital currencies, regional payment gateways to take precedence. N. C. Bipindra A common BRICS currency is an idea that once symbolised the grouping’s ambitious challenge to dominance of US Dollar. The common BRICS currency was proposed to reshape the global financial order apart from geo-political realignments. But the geopolitical climate is rapidly going downhill, what with the West Asian conflict engaging global attention over last two-and-a-half months now. The diverging national interests of BRICS nations are compounding the challenge. This divergence is exposing deep structural limits of the group’s common currency proposal. Instead of accelerating toward a unified currency for the 11-nation grouping, BRICS members are increasingly moving more toward a fragmented but practical financial system built around national digital currencies and local-currency trade settlements. BRICS originally with just four members in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, has grown to include South Africa (and hence became BRICS from BRIC). The BRICS now includes world’s major energy producers and regional powers, essentially positioning itself as a counterbalance to the G7, which is unwilling to accommodate other major economies within its architecture. The expanded BRICS has repeatedly discussed reducing dependence on US Dollar in trade settlements. Yet, despite the strong rhetoric from nations like Russia and China, a consensus among the member states is elusive. There is no real agreement on creating a single BRICS currency notwithstanding the Delhi declaration that had the currency as a big selling point for the group. The latest instability in West Asia, a major energy-producing region, has only complicated the situation. The conflict-driven volatility in oil markets, sanctions risks, supply chain disruptions and currency instability have all highlighted a basic geopolitical reality. BRICS economies are too diverse in structure, political orientation, and monetary priorities to surrender sovereignty over currency policy. Unlike the Eurozone, BRICS lacks integrated fiscal systems, coordinated central banks or a unified political architecture for it to move towards a common currency. Without these foundational similarities, a common currency would risk becoming economically unsustainable. The changing geopolitical environment is especially significant for Bharat. New Delhi has historically and consistently supported multi-polarity in geopolitical order. India has also emphasised greater use of local currencies in trade, particularly in energy transactions, such as with Russia and Iran. However, India has remained cautious about any arrangement that could disproportionately strengthen China’s financial influence within BRICS. With tensions across West Asia and Europe intensifying and global markets becoming more unpredictable, India may increasingly rethink the feasibility of a BRICS currency altogether. India’s concerns with a single BRICS currency are not just political. Adapting to a unified BRICS currency would require India to significantly align its monetary policy, exchange-rate management, and reserve coordination. India’s economy operates under vastly different conditions than those of China, Russia, Brazil, or South Africa. India’s inflation management, capital controls, banking regulation, and trade priorities differ sharply from those of the other BRICS nations. In times of geopolitical crisis or a pandemic situation like COVID-19, nations typically prefer stronger control over domestic monetary tools rather than less. This explains why an alternative model, such as digital national currencies for intra-bloc settlements, is gaining traction inside BRICS. Instead of replacing sovereign currencies with a single BRICS unit, member states are increasingly exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and bilateral payment systems that bypass the Dollar without requiring full monetary union. China’s digital Yuan initiative remains the most advanced example of the CBDC. Russia has accelerated the development of digital payment systems after Western sanctions. India, meanwhile, has actively tested its own digital Rupee infrastructure through the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). These developments in CBDCs suggest that future of BRICS financial integration may be technological rather than monetary. Under this evolving framework, BRICS nations could settle trade in their own currencies using interoperable digital platforms. For example, energy exports could be priced in Yuan, Rupee, Rubble, or other local currencies, depending on bilateral arrangements. Such a system would gradually reduce exposure to US Dollar, while avoiding the political and economic complications of a shared currency within BRICS. This approach offers several advantages to BRICS nations. One, it preserves monetary sovereignty for all its member states. Two, it lowers transaction costs and reduces vulnerability to sanctions. Three, it allows nations to deepen financial cooperation incrementally rather than through a risky “big bang” currency union. President Donald J Trump had been fuming on the very idea of BRICS currency and threatened to slap huge imposts on member countries in case they moved ahead. Though US dollar continues to be the major preferred currency to settle transactions, it’s slowly losing sheen. President Trump expects that a strong alternative BRICS currency would dampen the US dollar’s primacy as the major international paper. Till now, US Dollar remained the most deeply embedded in global financial system due to scale of the American economy, liquidity of US financial markets, and institutional trust surrounding Dollar-denominated assets. Even nations critical of American financial influence continue to rely heavily on US Dollar reserves and US Dollar-based trade mechanisms. Therefore, future of BRICS currency project depends less on political declarations and more on whether the grouping can build a credible financial infrastructure capable of rivaling the existing US Dollar system. At present, BRICS lacks the institutional cohesion needed for such a transformation. Moreover, internal contradictions within BRICS remain substantial. China and India continue to compete strategically and militarily in Asia. Russia’s economy faces sanctions-driven isolation. Newer BRICS members have differing alignments with the West and varying levels of dependence on US Dollar-based trade. These realities weaken possibility of a unified BRICS currency. Current West Asian conflict-induced instability may further reinforce caution among BRICS members. In periods of geopolitical uncertainty, investors and governments typically gravitate toward stable and liquid reserve currencies. And, the US dollar still dominates that space. Even today, oil exporters exploring non-Dollar trade continue to benchmark much of global energy commerce in US Dollars, because of market familiarity and financial stability. But this doesn’t

Bharat Business Economy Policy

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Modi’s Mandate to Fuel Reforms

Big wins in state assembly polls especially in West Bengal would hasten pace of economic, governance reforms and spreading the growth story. Bharat continues to be brightest star. K.A. Badarinath West Asia conflict, Russia-Ukraine war notwithstanding, Bharat will continue to be the brightest spot globally on economic front. It will continue to be the fastest growing large economy next three years and bring tangible prosperity to Indians and contribute a large chunk to global communities. Thanks to a stable government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP heading 80 per cent states, union territories, this economic consolidation and expansion will continue into 2029, beyond. A big show of expanding political strength in five states legislative assembly elections would only bolster pace of economic reforms in the country. There’s virtually no stopping despite global uncertainties throwing intermittent challenges to Bharat’s sweepstakes as an economic behemoth. A recent Morgan Stanley report has projected Bharat’s economy to expand beyond US$ 5.7 billion in two years from now. The report released a week ago also talks about continued foreign investment flows during next five years. A whopping US$ 800 billion is expected to be invested in Indian projects, markets and paper by foreign companies spread over 5 years. If we go by the report, at a time when key stakeholders were complaining of uncertainties bogging down the market sentiment, Bharat seems to be the only big exception. What’s more likely is that while domestic demand in India continues its upward swing, export markets may contribute an additional US$ two trillion. Energy, infrastructure, data centres and rural economy will be the biggest drivers of this new growth cycle even as Bharat tests its ‘strategic autonomy’ framework for its global engagement. Till date this framework has delivered handsomely as Bharat continues to carve out its own space internationally without getting bogged down in cliques. For instance, doing energy business with US, Europe, Russia, Iran and engaging both Israel and Palestine have been hallmark of this policy framework. Getting access to energy in gallons of hydrocarbons, Bharat has played its cards deftly to keep its business communication open. Balancing competing forces, holding on its aces and pro-actively pursuing its goals is something Bharat has done amazingly well. It’s not energy front alone. Concluding a raft of free trade and investment agreements with over a countries or unions proves Bharat’s dogged perseverance. From European Union, United Kingdom to signing these agreements with Oman and New Zealand, free trade, investment and economy pacts have demonstrated Bharat’s widest arc of economic engagement. In 2025-26 alone, nine such agreements were concluded while such arrangements are in place with 38 countries. Initial apprehension on such agreements seems to have been set aside while Bharat’s leadership confidently moves forward. Differences notwithstanding, Bharat continues to engage two largest economies internationally, United States and China. Geo-political, border issues, security and perspective continue to be limiting factors. But, that has not stopped Bharat from doing business with these powers that be. Only a couple of days back, companies like Sun Pharma, JSW Steel, Sterlite group and nine others have committed to invest over US$ 20.5 billion in pharmaceuticals, steel, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence and infrastructure. At the Select US Invest summit the investments flummoxed markets as it demonstrates the resilience and confidence with which Bharat goes ahead doing business. One would not have imagined targeting US$ 500 billion worth economic engagement between US and Bharat notwithstanding the quixotic Republican White House led by President Donald J Trump. Today, these are the kind of figures being discussed as part of on-going trade talks. Definitely, China is a tricky customer on business front and a difficult northern neighbour from strategic point of view. But, the two uneasy neighbours have been doing business while China has emerged as the largest trading partner for Bharat with bilateral trade of over US$ 151 billion in financial year ending April 1, 2026. There’s no denying the fact that this trade engagement is completely lopsided and in favour of China by many times over. While New Delhi works hard to balance out the trade, go up the value chain and enhance exports to China, the two continue to talk, invest and do business. It does not mean that border disputes with China can be wished away. Out of the US$ 863 billion, services account for about half at US$ 421.32 billion during financial year ending April 1, 2026. Also, the massive trade surplus from services has been making up for huge deficit on merchandise trade. While this anomaly gets corrected, US$ two trillion services exports are something that Bharat is working towards. While there are no shortcuts, artificial intelligence is bound to impact the IT services exports in particular. As the rejig in strategy happens with short term adverse impact staring in the face, Bharat’s biggest bet may be to expand merchandise exports market, go for high value products while retaining the small ticket items. Strengthening agriculture and farm-based rural economy, expanding the allied agricultural services is yet another area that Bharat has been working for long term. Given that economic expansion has shifted to sub-urban, semi-urban and rural areas, the government in Bharat seems to have changed track to capitalize on the opportunities. When the Narendra Modi government announced US$ 26.5 billion credit guarantee fund for micro, small and medium enterprises, it was one way of addressing the West Asia impact on both businesses and jobs. Political stability with the massive mandate that Prime Minister Modi and his party got in West Bengal, Assam, Puducherry, things could not have been better for India. Analysts expect economic reforms apart from politically nuanced policy issues like delimitation of constituencies and bringing in more women into governance would gain pace. While that happens, Bharat continues its economic expansion and prosperity spread drive. (Author is veteran journalist, Director & Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

Bharat Canada Geopolitics Hindus Human Rights Khalistan Policy

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Canada’s Bill C-9 and Its Implications for Hindus and Khalistani Extremism

With the enactment of Bill C-9 (Combatting Hate Act), Canada’s legislative stance on hate speech, extremist iconography and religious space protection underwent an important change. The law establishes penalties for intimidation at religious institutions motivated by hatred and makes it illegal to publicly display insignia associated with terrorist groups. The law is both a chance for legal protection and a test of the legitimacy of enforcement for Canada’s Hindu minority, which is dealing with an increase in temple destruction, intimidation, and hate speech related to Khalistan. The rule was passed in response to growing worries about targeted animosity toward Hindu populations, temple destruction, and radicalization of the diaspora.

Bharat Business Economy Geopolitics International Policy Politics Trade United States USA

365

Trump, Tariffs & Tumult

Uncertainty in global trade got new lease of life with US President Trump insisting on weaponising tariffs with no signs of easing down. K.A.Badarinath President Donald Trump is going bonkers. Tariffs or weapons of mass destruction, it makes no difference to him or the Republican White House that he runs. It’s with the same vigour that deadly arms to different parts of the world are supplied or sold, tariffs slapped or reviewed. In one of my earlier write ups, I did say that Donald Trump would be one of the ‘biggest disruptor’ of global order, be it geo-political, economic and trade relations. This has been proved beyond doubt in recent days. US Supreme Court order of last week may have been just a few hours of pause on weaponised tariffs that’s central to Donald Trump’s economic policy formulation. In those few hours, he switched statutes, juggled acts, related provisions and then slapped 15 per cent import tariffs on each and every country that America trades with, be it an ally or a foe. Well, reciprocal tariff regime of President Trump under his emergency economic powers may have ended. But then, he opened another line to slap tariffs for 150 days pending approval from US Congress. Even as new tariff regime comes into operation beginning Tuesday that are over and above most favoured nations (MFN) duties, uncertainty in global trade continues to reign supreme with nations’ capital across seven seas trying to make sense of the new tariffs, their future and what’s in store for each one of them. By weaponizing tariffs to force both allies and enemies alike into submission, Donald Trump opened a new untested model of building relationships. In the process, President Trump has addressed his domestic white core political constituency who perceive him as a ‘decisive leader’ who’s just going about his job of governing America. From provisions relating to balance of payments, discrimination against American interests to several substantive clauses of Trade Acts in US may be invoked by President Trump to carry forward what he describes as part of his campaign to Make America Great Again (MAGA). President Trump is going gaga to leave his imprint on America’s governance come what may. He shows no signs of backing off any time now. But, what essentially happens is that period of uncertainty would extend, most countries will use this timeframe to recalibrate to redefine their negotiation strategy. While China is better off as it secured one-year negotiation time to sign upon a new trade deal, Bharat has kept its options open and may need more fresh air in the room before a pact is clinched with Washington DC. Now, the proposed18 per cent reciprocal duty to be part of free trade agreement with US becomes infructuous as use of International Economic Emergency powers have been struck down by US Supreme Court. Fresh negotiations for a deal between Bharat and US seem inevitable at much below 18 per cent impost though President Trump continues to insist that nothing has changed for Bharat. Postponing current round of negotiations on FTA for a later date would work well for both India and US as Washington DC. Secondly, keeping all options open would work in best interest of Bharat and its 1.4 billion citizens. Reworking the entire deal with US in totem over next six months is not a bad idea with ‘strategic autonomy’ being central to engagement. In this context, taking a common approach on US tariffs with like-minded partners as suggested by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may be explored. Building blocks or unions against America may not be an option for Bharat though the visiting President Lula has postulated such a strategy. Similarly, putting a full stop to purchase of oil and gas from Russia cannot be an option as Bharat continues to diversify its energy basket, sources and undertakes rework of energy matrix. Diversifying its markets for selling its goods and services beyond European Union should be seriously considered by Bharat’s negotiators. Speciality minerals deal with Brazil is a fine example like the ‘strategic relations’ entered into France is unique and specific to Bharat. Similarly, arriving at a working understanding with China be seriously considered notwithstanding the aggressions, transgressions made by the people’s liberation army on the borders. Containing border conflicts, China giving up its falsified claims in Indo-Pacific should be integral to the working arrangement with Beijing. Thirdly, Bharat should aggressively play the role of a peacenik in conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Israel & Iran apart from taking an aggressive ‘zero tolerance’ posture against radicalism, religious terror and overseas interferences on the sly. Fourthly, achieving a fine balance in our global engagement in the medium to long term to safeguard Bharat’s security interests that are non-negotiable should be the objective. Republican or Democratic White House is no patronizing friend of Bharat. Bharat must safeguard her own interests. (Author is a veteran journalist, writer & blogger, director & chief executive at non-partisan New Delhi based think-tank, Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies)

Bangladesh Bharat China Economy Geopolitics Human Rights Policy Security

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Myanmar’s Strategic Crossroads China’s Influence, Western Interests and a Turbulent Election

Arun Anand Myanmar (formerly Burma) sits at a critical crossroads in Asia, both geographically and geopolitically. The country’s location – bordering China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Laos, with a long coastline on the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea – makes it a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia. In fact, Myanmar is often described as the “main connecting hub” linking East, South, and Southeast Asia. Its shores provide access to the Indian Ocean’s major shipping lanes, which has long attracted great power interest. In short, Myanmar’s geostrategic location grants it outsized importance: it is the only Southeast Asian nation sharing borders with both India and China, and it offers a land gateway from the Bay of Bengal into the heart of Asia.

Bangladesh’s Political Alliances Ahead of the 2026 Elections: Domestic Shifts and Geopolitical Alignments

Bangladesh Bharat Election Hindus Human Rights Leadership Pakistan Policy Politics

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Bangladesh’s Political Alliances Ahead of the 2026 Elections: Domestic Shifts and Geopolitical Alignments

By N. C. Bipindra As Bangladesh moves toward the general elections scheduled for February 2026, the country is experiencing its most far-reaching political realignment in decades. The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s long-entrenched Awami League dominance following the 2024 mass uprising has dismantled the familiar two-party framework and given rise to a fragmented, competitive political arena. New coalitions, revived Islamist forces and youth-driven political platforms are all vying for space, and their manoeuvring is unfolding amid intensifying regional and global interest. For India, China, the United States and Pakistan, the choices Bangladeshi voters and parties make in 2026 will shape not only domestic governance but also Dhaka’s strategic orientation in South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific. From Awami League Dominance to Political Fragmentation For more than a decade, Bangladesh’s political and foreign policy trajectory was closely associated with Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Domestically, the party presided over a strong centralised system that delivered economic growth while constricting political competition. Internationally, it cultivated a close strategic partnership with India, maintained extensive economic and infrastructure engagement with China and managed an increasingly strained relationship with the United States over issues of democracy, elections and human rights. The upheaval of 2024 abruptly ended this equilibrium. The interim administration under Muhammad Yunus pledged institutional reform and credible elections, but it also left the Awami League politically marginalised, creating a vacuum that rival forces are now racing to fill. BNP: Strategic Balancer with a Nationalist Tilt In this transformed landscape, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has emerged as the most significant electoral contender. Long the principal opposition to the Awami League, BNP now sees itself as the natural governing alternative in a post-Hasina order. Its campaign narrative centres on restoring democratic norms, recalibrating economic policy, and reasserting civilian political authority. The death of party chairperson Khaleda Zia in December 2025 has accelerated a generational shift within the BNP, with her son Tarique Rahman assuming a central leadership role and directing alliance-building efforts ahead of the polls. This transition has infused the party with renewed urgency but also heightened scrutiny of its internal cohesion and strategic direction. Geopolitically, a BNP-led government would likely pursue a more balanced and less India-centric foreign policy than the Awami League. While ties with New Delhi would remain important, BNP has historically been more cautious, sometimes sceptical, of India’s influence and would seek a relationship framed more explicitly around reciprocity and sovereignty. At the same time, BNP is open to deepening economic engagement with China, viewing Beijing primarily as a source of investment and infrastructure rather than an ideological partner. Relations with the United States are expected to improve relative to the later Awami League years, as Washington sees BNP as more receptive to competitive politics, though US support would remain contingent on credible elections and limits on Islamist influence. Any warming of ties with Pakistan under a BNP government would likely be symbolic rather than transformative, constrained by historical sensitivities and limited economic incentives. Islamist Bloc: Ideological Identity, Strategic Ambiguity Alongside BNP’s resurgence, the return of Islamist politics has added a new layer of complexity to the electoral contest. The reinstatement of Jamaat-e-Islami has allowed it to rebuild an Islamist-leaning bloc drawing on conservative rural constituencies and religious networks. Although Jamaat is unlikely to dominate nationally, it is well-positioned to influence outcomes in a fragmented parliament. Its re-entry into mainstream politics has unsettled secular and centrist forces, raising questions about Bangladesh’s ideological trajectory after years of enforced secularism under the Awami League. From a geopolitical perspective, Jamaat’s participation is viewed with unease by both India and the United States. New Delhi associates Islamist political mobilisation with potential risks to border security and counter-extremism cooperation, while Washington remains wary of Jamaat’s ideological orientation and historical baggage. Pakistan, by contrast, sees a degree of ideological affinity in Jamaat’s worldview, though this does not automatically translate into strategic alignment. China has taken a more pragmatic stance, showing little concern for Jamaat’s ideology so long as political stability is maintained and economic engagements remain intact. In this sense, Islamist influence complicates Bangladesh’s external relationships without clearly anchoring the country to any single power. National Citizen Party (NCP): Reformist Politics, Geopolitical Ambiguity Another significant player in the evolving political landscape is the National Citizen Party, a youth-led formation that emerged from the 2024 protest movement. The NCP articulates a reformist agenda centred on institutional accountability, anti-corruption measures and generational change in politics. Its rise reflects widespread public fatigue with dynastic politics and entrenched elites. However, the party’s limited grassroots organisation and inexperience have constrained its electoral prospects, pushing it toward alliance calculations that have sparked internal divisions, particularly over potential cooperation with Islamist groups. Internationally, NCP’s discourse resonates most strongly with Western actors, especially the United States, which views its emphasis on transparency and civic rights as aligned with democratic norms. The party has not articulated a clear or consistent stance toward India or China, reflecting both its novelty and its focus on domestic reform rather than foreign policy. Over the longer term, NCP represents a potential new political elite that could tilt Bangladesh toward stronger engagement with Western institutions, but in the immediate electoral cycle, its influence is likely to be indirect, mediated through alliances. Awami League Remnant: Pro-India, Diminished but Not Irrelevant Although the Awami League has been largely sidelined, its residual networks within the bureaucracy, business community and local governance structures continue to matter. Any partial rehabilitation of the party would be welcomed in New Delhi, which still regards the Awami League as its most reliable partner in Bangladesh. However, strained relations with the United States and deep hostility toward Pakistan would remain defining features of an Awami League foreign policy orientation, limiting its room for manoeuvre even if it regains political relevance. Democracy, Stability, and Strategic Competition For the United States, 2026 election represents a test of process rather than personalities. Washington’s primary concerns revolve around electoral credibility, political pluralism and the containment of violent extremism. A BNP-led or broadly technocratic

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